The household survey from the BLS does not give much relief
from this bleak picture. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) was stuck again at 9.1
percent, but if we add the percentage of the labor force that is underemployed –
i.e., involuntarily employed part-time – this measure of unemployment rose by 0.3
of a percentage point, i.e., from 14.8 percent to 15.1 percent. This unofficial number strikes me as useful. We could call it U7. See the last line of the table below.
The problem with the official BLS broad measures of
unemployment (U4, U5, U6) shown below is that monthly changes in these numbers may
be misleading because they include components that are not seasonally adjusted.
The slight improvement in the rate of the marginally attached (U5), which
includes discouraged (U4), could reflect seasonal factors.
The unemployment + underemployment number (what I call U7) can
be compared on a monthly basis because both components are seasonally adjusted.
Sept.
2011
|
Aug.
2011
|
|
Unemployment Rate % (U3)
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
Labor Force (mil.)
|
153.6
|
154.0
|
Unemployed (mil.)
|
14.0
|
14.0
|
Teenagers %
|
24.6
|
25.4
|
Blacks %
|
16.0
|
16.7
|
Long-term unemployed/unemployed %
|
44.6
|
42.9
|
Discouraged* %
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
Unemployed+discouraged* % (U4)
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
Marginally attached* %
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
Unemployed + marg. att.* % (U5)
|
10.7
|
10.8
|
Involuntary part-time %
|
6.0
|
5.7
|
Unemployed + marg.-att.*+invol-PT
% (U6)
|
16.8
|
16.5
|
Unemployed + invol-PT % (proposed
U7)
|
15.1
|
14.8
|
*Not seasonally
adjusted. Marginally attached includes discouraged workers. Denominator in all
cases but the LT unemployed is the labor force or (for U4, U5 and U6) a combination of the labor force and the portion of the marginally attached in the numerator. The U4 rate changes because of
rounding. The other numbers shown are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. Source: www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.
The official broad unemployment and underemployment rates (U4, U5, U6) are
discussed at http://www.bls.gov/fls/flscomparelf/unemployment.htm#table1_2.
Thanks for all these good data. I am so tired of partial truths and pontification and glad/grateful to see comprehensive facts that are also well organized.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I will try to update and extend this every month.
ReplyDeletePlease, could you produce these figures for all of Europe, Canada ,Australia, basically the OECD to see what the truth is. Like in the US, where they changed the std measure used, it got change here in Australia some years back & guess what? It happens to lower the unemployment!! Coincidence huh? I'd like to see the realistic numbers.
ReplyDelete