June 5, 2020—We are in uncharted territory, so it's worth looking at every piece of data that can help us understand what is happening. The markets were happily shocked by the drop to a 13.3 percent unemployment rate this morning, although if the status of some misclassified workers were corrected the percentage unemployed would rise to 16.3 percent. But at 13.3 percent the U-6 rate was above 20 percent, and some of the people who would have been among the May U-3 unemployed were located for the time being among the U-6 unemployed.
What are the major shocks that the United States is suffering through? Here are three:
What are the major shocks that the United States is suffering through? Here are three:
- The coronavirus, which is poorly understood,
- The economy, which was been largely shut down by the Covid-19 virus, and
- The relationship of governments at the federal, state, city and town level to the public that they serve, when nerves on both sides are frayed.
The following rank of unemployment rates by state may help separate out the different strands of distress. Minnesota's April unemployment rate, for example, ranks second-lowest among all the states (DC is included here as a state). Its economic stress should be relatively low. It is therefore surprising that this is where George Floyd was murdered.
One sorting factor among the states is relative density. Connecticut and Minnesota have a relatively low density. Another factor is the importance of tourism and travel. Nevada and Hawaii are greatly affected by the loss of tourism and air travel. Michigan is affected by the stay-at-home guidelines.
New York is an interesting case. Because New York City is a tourist and immigration destination, it was the first to be affected in a major way by the coronavirus. It is densely populated downstate and relatively sparsely populated upstate.
State
|
April 2020(P)
rate
|
Rank
|
State
|
April 2020(P)
rate
|
Rank
| |
Connecticut
| 7.9 | 1 |
Florida
| 12.9 | 25 | |
Minnesota
| 8.1 | 2 |
Oklahoma
| 13.7 | 28 | |
Nebraska
| 8.3 | 3 |
Wisconsin
| 14.1 | 29 | |
North Dakota
| 8.5 | 4 |
Oregon
| 14.2 | 30 | |
Wyoming
| 9.2 | 5 |
Delaware
| 14.3 | 31 | |
Missouri
| 9.7 | 6 |
Louisiana
| 14.5 | 32 | |
Utah
| 9.7 | 6 |
New York
| 14.5 | 32 | |
Maryland
| 9.9 | 8 |
Tennessee
| 14.7 | 34 | |
Arkansas
| 10.2 | 9 |
Massachusetts
| 15.1 | 35 | |
Iowa
| 10.2 | 9 |
Pennsylvania
| 15.1 | 35 | |
South Dakota
| 10.2 | 9 |
West Virginia
| 15.2 | 37 | |
Maine
| 10.6 | 12 |
New Jersey
| 15.3 | 38 | |
Virginia
| 10.6 | 12 |
Kentucky
| 15.4 | 39 | |
District of Columbia
| 11.1 | 14 |
Mississippi
| 15.4 | 39 | |
Kansas
| 11.2 | 15 |
Washington
| 15.4 | 39 | |
Colorado
| 11.3 | 16 |
California
| 15.5 | 42 | |
Montana
| 11.3 | 16 |
Vermont
| 15.6 | 43 | |
New Mexico
| 11.3 | 16 |
New Hampshire
| 16.3 | 44 | |
Idaho
| 11.5 | 19 |
Illinois
| 16.4 | 45 | |
Georgia
| 11.9 | 20 |
Ohio
| 16.8 | 46 | |
South Carolina
| 12.1 | 21 |
Indiana
| 16.9 | 47 | |
North Carolina
| 12.2 | 22 |
Rhode Island
| 17.0 | 48 | |
Arizona
| 12.6 | 23 |
Hawaii
| 22.3 | 49 | |
Texas
| 12.8 | 24 |
Michigan
| 22.7 | 50 | |
Alabama
| 12.9 | 25 |
Nevada
| 28.2 | 51 | |
Alaska
| 12.9 | 25 | ||||
(p) Preliminary | ||||||
Note: Rates shown are a percentage of the labor force. Data refer to place of residence. Estimates for the current month are subject to revision the following month. Source: https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm |
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