The chart shows states that Trump won in 2016 where Biden is tied or has the edge as of September 28. The following synoptic summary of polling in battleground states as of Friday, October 30, is by Dana Chasin of 20/20Vision:
Vice President Biden leads national polls by 9 points and turnout rates favor Democrats by more than 17 points, pointing to a potential blue wave. Battleground states this year, ordered from most to least electoral votes, include:
Texas (38 Electoral Votes): Trump is up by 1.2 points in Texas. This year, Texas limited mail-in voting only to those unable to come to the polls. More than nine million Texans cast votes this week, surpassing 2016 turnout. And more than 16.9 million voters are registered in Texas, an increase of 3 million from 2016.
Florida (29 EVs): Both Biden and Trump are campaigning in Florida this week. Since Labor Day, Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one in Florida, and he is leading by 2.2 points in polls. Roughly 474,000 more registered Republicans have voted in-person in Florida than Democrats, but Democrats are leading mail-in voting by 637,000 votes. Republicans will likely continue to vote in-person, but total votes cast have already surpassed 2016 totals.
Pennsylvania (20 EVs): Biden currently leads in Pennsylvania by 5.2 points. Since 2016, Democratic voter registration has declined by 10,000 while Republicans registered 205,000 voters. But Democrats hold a 700,000 voter registration edge statewide. So far, 2.1 million people, majority Democrat, have mailed in their ballots.
Ohio (18 EVs): In the polls, Trump currently leads Biden by 0.9 in Ohio. Ohio offers in-person early voting and the ability to request an absentee ballot up to three days before Election Day. More than 2.5 million Ohioans have already cast their ballots. But unlike other states, fewer Ohio Democrats and more Republicans are voting early and absentee compared to the same point in 2016.
Other states to watch: Other battleground states include Michigan (16 EVs), Georgia (16 EVs), North Carolina (15 EVs), Arizona (11 EVs), and Iowa (6 EVs), with polls showing Biden leading in Michigan by 9.1 points, Arizona by 3.1, North Carolina by 2.3, Georgia by 1.7, and Iowa by 0.3. While Trump is looking to flip Minnesota, which Clinton won by less than 2 points in 2016, Biden is leading the state by 8.2 points. NC, MN, and GA, along with Wisconsin, will likely report unofficial results by noon on Thursday, providing an indication of pre-election poll accuracy and the degree of red-to-blue shift in crucial swing states.
No comments:
Post a Comment