STATE BATTLEGROUNDS | Polling Update

The chart shows states that Trump won in 2016 where Biden is tied or has the edge as of September 28. The following synoptic summary of polling in battleground states as of Friday, October 30, is by Dana Chasin of 20/20Vision:

Vice President Biden leads national polls by 9 points and turnout rates favor Democrats by more than 17 points, pointing to a potential blue wave. Battleground states this year, ordered from most to least electoral votes, include: 

• Texas (38 Electoral Votes): Trump is up by 1.2 points in Texas. This year, Texas limited mail-in voting only to those unable to come to the polls. More than nine million Texans cast votes this week, surpassing 2016 turnout. And more than 16.9 million voters are registered in Texas, an increase of 3 million from 2016.

• Florida (29 EVs):  Both Biden and Trump are campaigning in Florida this week. Since Labor Day, Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one in Florida, and he is leading by 2.2 points in polls. Roughly 474,000 more registered Republicans have voted in-person in Florida than Democrats, but Democrats are leading mail-in voting by 637,000 votes. Republicans will likely continue to vote in-person, but total votes cast have already surpassed 2016 totals.

• Pennsylvania (20 EVs): Biden currently leads in Pennsylvania by 5.2 points. Since 2016, Democratic voter registration has declined by 10,000 while Republicans registered 205,000 voters. But Democrats hold a 700,000 voter registration edge statewide. So far, 2.1 million people, majority Democrat, have mailed in their ballots.

• Ohio (18 EVs): In the polls, Trump currently leads Biden by 0.9 in Ohio. Ohio offers in-person early voting and the ability to request an absentee ballot up to three days before Election Day. More than 2.5 million Ohioans have already cast their ballots. But unlike other states, fewer Ohio Democrats and more Republicans are voting early and absentee compared to the same point in 2016.

• Other states to watch: Other battleground states include Michigan (16 EVs), Georgia (16 EVs), North Carolina (15 EVs), Arizona (11 EVs), and Iowa (6 EVs), with polls showing Biden leading in Michigan by 9.1 points, Arizona by 3.1, North Carolina by 2.3, Georgia by 1.7, and Iowa by 0.3. While Trump is looking to flip Minnesota, which Clinton won by less than 2 points in 2016, Biden is leading the state by 8.2 points. NC, MN, and GA, along with Wisconsin, will likely report unofficial results by noon on Thursday, providing an indication of pre-election poll accuracy and the degree of red-to-blue shift in crucial swing states.

Poll: McCain Is Losing Because of the Economy

2 a.m. EST: An AOL poll shows a majority of more than 200,000 respondents saying that John McCain can still win on November 4, eight days from now. The poll asks: "What should a McCain comeback strategy focus on most?" Of the 160,000 respondents, 54 percent believe that he should focus on economic solutions. Only 20 percent say McCain should focus on his experience, only 18 percent say he can succeed by attacking Obama. (Only 8 percent say there is some other formula for a McCain victory.)

Comment: As forecasts of a deep global recession grow and some sober economists (like Harvard Professor Greg Mankiw in Saturday's But Have We Learned Enough?) say an economic downturn rivaling the Great Depression can't be ruled out. McCain needed to position himself as a leader offering different economic solutions from the Bush Administration. The AOL poll suggests that McCain's inability to cobble together such a plan is Obama's greatest strength. If he is so experienced, the electorate seems to be asking, why isn't McCain able to explain what he would do differently from George W. Bush about the economy?

6 a.m. EST: More than 183,000 responses. Economic solutions, 54 percent. McCain's experience, 19 percent. Attacking Obama, 18 percent. Other, 9 percent.

CAMPAIGN 2008 | Two New Posts

Two of my posts have recently appeared in Huffington Post:

April 5, 2008: Survey: "19% Say USA on Right Track." Who ARE These People? 

The lead NY Times story yesterday is headlined: "81 Percent in Poll Say Nation Is Headed on Wrong Track" and the first paragraph tells us this is the highest number since 1992 poll (this Times/CBS News poll was first conducted in 1991) and way up from the 35 percent figure in 2002. Hmmm... (1) The last time four-fifths of the nation was so negative about the future of the United States was in the last year of the presidency of Bush 41. (2) The percentage of people generally happy with the direction of the country has been steadily declining during the presidency of Bush 43.

March 23, 2008: The Bankers Panic of 2008 -- New Regulation

In late 1999, the bulwark bank regulation of 1933, the Glass-Steagall Act–the wall between investment banks and commercial banks–was torn down. This was a great victory for creative bankers, who had found the wall irksome and restrictive. What was outside the wall should have been brought under an expanded regulatory scope of the Federal Reserve or the SEC, or both.