PINK ARMY FORMING | How Women Won Primaries

Pink Army Rising

The following commentary is by Dana Chasin and is posted by permission:

Since President Trump’s election, hundreds of first-time female candidates have competed for political office.

A record 472 female candidates filed to run for House seats this cycle, shattering the 2012 record of 298 and more than doubling the number of women who ran in 2016.

More than three-quarters of the women who competed for House seats have run in Democratic primaries.

Women candidates are also winning at higher rates than ever before. Of primary contests between one woman, one man, and no incumbent, 65 percent have been won by the female candidate. A blue is wave anticipated in November; it may well turn out to be a pink army that leads it.

Contributions from Women Rise Sharply

Women are giving more to political campaigns. This election cycle, campaign contributions from female donors total 31 percent of House candidate fundraising, more than in any other election year and up from 27 percent in 2014. Women are not only participating by running, they are also participating by donating.

Source: Cook Political Report

Female Political Activism Up 

Political engagement and activism by women is at an all-time high. The Women’s March on Washington saw record numbers in D.C.—and across the nation—show up to make their voices heard on a issues such as women’s rights, gender equality, and paid family leave. Continuing with the #MeToo movement, we have seen the power of women’s voices in the political narrative and their engagement in the issues that matter most to them.

According to the latest Gallup poll tracking, just 35 percent of women approve of President Trump’s performance, compared with  49 percent of men. In 2016, Trump lost the female vote by an unprecedented 13 points, receiving just 41 percent to 54 percent for Hillary Clinton. Unmarried women, Latino, and millennial voters all came out to vote in the 2016 election in greater numbers than in 2012.  Given the rise in female political activism and the rise of female candidates focusing on issues that women care about, 2018 will surely be remembered as the Year of the Woman.

Progressive Women Win

Polls show that the Americans are looking for change from their political leaders-- and women are delivering. Candidates from districts as different as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's and Kara Eastman’s won their primaries against moderate incumbents, Joe Crowley and Brad Ashford, by running on more progressive policies and visions, and greater attention to neglected demographics.  While Ocasio-Cortez should cruise in her deep blue district, Eastman will face stiff competition in a purple Nebraska district that has been separated by one percentage point the last few election cycles.

Regardless of how difficult their general election fights will be, their primary victories represent the direction that this blue wave is headed – towards women and towards progressive outsiders.

Economic and Related Issues

A number of policy positions have played well for female Democrats during this primary season.

• Health Care

Voters rank health care as the number one issue going into the November midterms, and they are looking for sweeping reform proposals from candidates, not incremental changes.  Democratic candidates, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are running (and winning) on bold, progressive policies such as Medicare for All. Healthcare issues resonate strongly with female voters because they make 80 percent of health decisions in the family, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.  Voters also tend to trust women more when it comes to healthcare, and given the importance that voters assign to the topic this will certainly advantage female candidates.

• Taxes and the Economy

The recent GOP tax cuts have gone from a positive to either a neutral or negative campaign message in the eyes of voters. This negative impression by the electorate could be further exacerbated if the GOP look to attack entitlements in order to make amends for their fiscally irresponsible Tax Cuts and Jobs Act bill. Likewise, with the economy, voters are looking for bold messaging: to rewrite the rules of the game so the economy works for everyone, not just a select few. As wages stagnate while the cost of living increases, the tax cuts feel more and more like a dividend for wealthy special interests who rig the rules.

• Campaign Finance Reform

Despite the repeated transgressions of the Trump administration, Democrats are double-digits behind Trump when it comes to “cleaning up the swamp.”  Democratic candidates are winning their primaries by linking economic and political reform. This issue is critical in the perception among voters that candidates stand for something and are not part of a political establishment that is looking to continue the status quo.  Many candidates have found that eschewing donations from big business, lobbyists, and/or super PACs resonates strongly with voters.

The Pink Army

A total of 29 female non-incumbent Democratic candidates have won primaries in districts that are considered to be competitive (not solid Dem or GOP) by Cook Political Report. The candidates in these districts are scattered around the country but are united by their prioritization of economic issues on the campaign trail and their desire for change.

More importantly, they will be a preponderant factor in enabling Democrats to take back the House in November.  The Cook Political Report has predicted that Democrats are going to win between 20-35 seats in November. To achieve this, Democrats must go with the flow of a pink army that has already seen half of all House Democratic nominations thus far go to women, more than double the previous record. 

ICELAND | Most Peaceful – Lessons

The Consolations of Being Small

Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world, and has been since 2008, according to the global peace index, which I had a hand in developing early on. https://bit.ly/2oBv52i

Why Iceland? Could it be because it decided to protect its citizens from the financial crisis of 2008, instead of the country's over-extended financial institutions that got its citizens into trouble? One reason it couldn't protect its financial institutions is that the trouble they got into was way beyond the ability of the government to solve. https://wapo.st/2JjarhP

Another possibility – Iceland feels protected by its Scandinavian friends (although Iceland declared its independence from Denmark in 1944), perhaps the way Australia and Canada feel protected by Britain.

What are the lessons of Iceland?
1. Better for the economy for the government to protect small depositors than the outsized financial sector.
2. Easier to do this when the country is so small that aggressive financial institutions can't possibly push losses onto the taxpayer. When the country is too small to build a large self-perpetuating defense establishment.

JOBS | Suffolk County, NY

How is Trump doing?

In 2010, Randy Altschuler attacked the incumbent congressman from Suffolk County, NY, Rep. Tim Bishop, for not doing enough for the Long Island economy.

He said that 30,000 jobs had left Long Island during Bishop's incumbency. I pointed out in an article on Huffington Post that the number was a lie. The correct figure was a gain of 36,000 jobs. Altschuler stopped using the number, but not until after he sent a glossy card to every voter with the lie plastered all over it.

Lee Zeldin was next to campaign against Bishop, in 2008. He lost badly in a Republican-leaning district. But in 2014 he adopted a straight Tea Party program, one of the first campaigners to do this. Here were his four main programs:

1. Oppose raising the Federal minimum wage.
2. Curtail Medicaid benefits. 
3. Simplify the Federal tax code and cut taxes on the rich. 
4. Cut Federal spending.

Zeldin was one of the first of the Tea Party electeds, in 2014. The GOP gained a majority in both the House and Senate in the 114th Congress, 2015-16. So how have Zeldin and the GOP Congress been helping Suffolk County? Let's ignore the first year, during which Zeldin was finding out where the bathrooms are in the maze of Capitol offices. Few Members of Congress make a dent in Washington in their first year (one reason for respecting seniority). Let's look at the second year of his term of office. How has the Suffolk County economy performed in 2016?

County-level numbers for jobs and wages are released quarterly and the numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016 were just released by the BLS on Wednesday. Here is the story for Suffolk:

Jobs. Suffolk's nonfarm payroll jobs rose to 661,400 in the fourth quarter of 2016, an increase of 900 jobs.

That's fewer than 1,000 jobs, compared with Bishop's presiding over growth of   36,000 jobs when he was attacked by the GOP for not doing enough for the economy.

The tiny growth rate during 2016 ranks 205th of 345 large counties for which the BLS computes this information, about 60 percent down the list. Within New York State, the growth rate is in the bottom half of the 18 large counties on the BLS list.

Wages. But maybe, has the quality of the jobs improved under Zeldin? What has happened to weekly wages? The news is much worse. Wages in Suffolk County declined by 3.5 percent, placing the county 289th out of 345 large U.S. counties, i.e., in the bottom fifth. Only two counties out of the 18 in New York State did worse.

This is not a good record. Since November 2016 the GOP has not only Congress but the White House, and a president who promised more jobs. We are waiting and watching.

Long Island Economy in an Election Year

Queens, Nassau and Suffolk Counties are comparable
economies, with 544,000 (Queens) to 640,500 (Suffolk) jobs.

With all of its U.S. reps in DC up for re-election in 2014, the latest quarter of data on jobs and wages is worth looking at with an eye to what it means for the political environment.

For example, in  New York's First Congressional District, which accounts for most of Suffolk County, both of the main candidates for the Republican nomination on June 24 (Lee Zeldin and George Demos) have announced that they plan to make their main issue the economy.

They plan to paint the incumbent, Rep. Tim Bishop, as a pro-regulation, pro-spending Democrat who has contributed to higher taxes in Suffolk County.

So it will pay to stay a step ahead of the electoral clamor and look at three counties that may help establish the context of the debate - Queens, Nassau and Suffolk. Their fourth-quarter 2013 jobs and wages data were just published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning.

• The three counties are remarkably similar in economic size, with between 49,000 (Queens) and 53,300 (Nassau) establishments.
• Of the three, Suffolk County has the most jobs, 640,500. Nassau is in second place with 616,700 jobs and Queens with 544,500.
• It is true that the growth in jobs in Suffolk County compared with the fourth quarter of 2012 is the slowest of the three counties, 1.2 percent, behind Queens with 1.5 percent and Nassau with 2.3 percent. But Suffolk's growth is near the U.S. median for the 335 largest counties - it's not terrible.
• Meanwhile, on the wage front, Suffolk has done very well. The average wage per week in the fourth quarter was $1,079, an increase of 1.9 percent over a year earlier. This is in the top one-sixth of all large counties in the nation. Suffolk's weekly wage is nearly as high as that of Nassau, at $1,120.
• However, during the same year that Suffolk's wages were rising, Nassau's were falling by 1.5 percent. Both Nassau and Suffolk wages are higher than in Queens, which has a weekly wage of $955, a 2.1 percent increase over 2012.

The job and salary data do not provide a prima facie case that either Suffolk or Nassau County suffers from over-regulation or over-taxation, at least compared with the rest of the United States.

If prior elections are a guide, however, don't under-estimate the ability of campaigners to find data to support the economic case they want to make against an incumbent.

If you torture data enough, they will confess.

Poll: McCain Is Losing Because of the Economy

2 a.m. EST: An AOL poll shows a majority of more than 200,000 respondents saying that John McCain can still win on November 4, eight days from now. The poll asks: "What should a McCain comeback strategy focus on most?" Of the 160,000 respondents, 54 percent believe that he should focus on economic solutions. Only 20 percent say McCain should focus on his experience, only 18 percent say he can succeed by attacking Obama. (Only 8 percent say there is some other formula for a McCain victory.)

Comment: As forecasts of a deep global recession grow and some sober economists (like Harvard Professor Greg Mankiw in Saturday's But Have We Learned Enough?) say an economic downturn rivaling the Great Depression can't be ruled out. McCain needed to position himself as a leader offering different economic solutions from the Bush Administration. The AOL poll suggests that McCain's inability to cobble together such a plan is Obama's greatest strength. If he is so experienced, the electorate seems to be asking, why isn't McCain able to explain what he would do differently from George W. Bush about the economy?

6 a.m. EST: More than 183,000 responses. Economic solutions, 54 percent. McCain's experience, 19 percent. Attacking Obama, 18 percent. Other, 9 percent.

Yankees to Blame for Sluggish Economy, Too

This appeared in the NY Magazine Blog (www.nymag.com), The Sports Section, picking up on a NY Post story and taking it another step. In a half-trillion-dollar economy, the impact of the Yankees isn't a big deal - the permanent NYC-based jobs created by the presence of the MLB are more important. But psychologically - when the Yankees ought to be in the Playoffs without question every year given their gold-plated budget - the team's performance seems to fit with the flat performance of Wall Street.

If you're running out of people to hold accountable for the tanking economy, NYU adjunct professor John Tepper Marlin has a suggestion: Blame the damn Yankees. In a study commissioned by the Post, Marlin found that when the Yankees advance all the way to the World Series, the city stands to make $141 million, factoring in things like revenue earned by sports bars. But just by making the playoffs, the team earns the city $26 million, and with the Yankees poised to miss the postseason for the first time since the strike season of 1994, this previously taken-for-granted cash can't be counted on.

But don't buy that house in Tampa quite yet. The Mets, who are currently two games ahead of the Phillies in the National League East, can make the city some money, too: $21 million for a playoff appearance, and $147 million if they win the National League pennant. (The difference in numbers has to do with the fact that Mets fans are more heavily concentrated in the five boroughs than are Yankees fans.) So no matter your allegiance, let's hear it on the unemployment line: Let's go Mets! Let's go Mets!

CITY WILL $TRIKE OUT IF YANKS MISS PLAYOFFS, NYPost

Cited also in The Yankees Missing the Playoffs Could Cost New York City Millions, FanHouse and Fate Of New York Economy Rests With Yankees, Mets, The Business Sheet. See all stories on this topic.

New York City's Economic Outlook

How Bad Will NYC's Economy Get? AM New York. "There have been four distinct downturns since the 1970s and the one that seems most similar to this one is the S&L crisis in 1987," said Rae Rosen, assistant vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That meltdown began with the jarring stock market crash in October 1987, and lasted into the early 1990s, spreading from Wall Street to Main Street, and crippling the city's real-estate market. The 1980s meltdown was known as a "white-collar recession," because it broke the trend of economic cycles that used to rise and fall on manufacturing. The pattern today is very much along those lines. The city lost 350,000 jobs during that period, far more than the number predicted to disappear this time. However, in a note of concern, the city's economy is far more reliant today on the fate of Wall Street, where most of the cuts are happening – so far. Wall Street employment makes up about 5 percent of the workforce but about 25 percent of all wages earned; that figure was only 9 percent in the early 90s. Comment by CityEconomist: The October 1987 stock-market crash affected New York City more than the nation, which didn’t go into recession until 1989. The low point for NYC jobs was October 1992 (the month I was first appointed Chief Economist in the Office of the NYC Comptroller in what turned out to be a 13-year stint covering three full electoral cycles and two partial ones). Using annual data, NYC's economy didn’t turn around until 1993.

NYC | Just a C for Growth? (Comment)

August 31, 2007–A Business Council study compares the 2005 economy with the 1995 economy... and says NYC rates a C. The study is reported on here: New York City and State Lag in Economic Growth (NY Sun).

Comment

The Business Council has done some great work, e.g., on workers' compensation. But this study - c'mon. Who are we do believe–the Council or our own lying eyes?

Do the authors remember that the City of New York was attacked by terrorists on September 11 and the business community was on the edge of a diaspora? The fact that NYC has bounced back since 9/11 is impressive.

Perhaps NYC should be grateful to get a C since the study gives a good portion of the group to which NYC is compared (i.e., the upstate counties) an F.

But there is a deep flaw embedded in the study. It uses five variables and compares each county with the nation. Three of the five variables–population, jobs and total personal incomes–are biased against dense counties like the five boroughs of NYC, which are harder to grow from a population or jobs standpoint. It's easier for populations to grow rapidly from tiny numbers in the deserts of Arizona and Nevada counties than it is in a settled city like New York. However, NYC has its own upstate reservoir while the desert communities depend for their water on snow falling in distant states.

The value of residential and commercial real estate is one test of the City's economic magnetism. The recovery and growth of values since 9/11 speaks for itself.

What may happen in the future to Wall Street jobs and incomes and the value of real estate given the collapse of the subprime lending industry is another matter. It is as true today as it was in the 1980s that the City's economy is highly dependent for its performance on Wall Street's brains and skills. But meanwhile don't slam the City with unfair comparisons. Give it an A for its recovery from the disheartening months after 9/11.