NY STATE | County Deaths from COVID (2)

April 3, 2020—In one week, the death rate from COVID-19 per 100,000 population tripled in New York City. It was between 5.5 and 5.8 deaths per 100,000 population in the Bronx, Staten Island (Richmond County) and Queens, and was 3.2 to 3.5 in Brooklyn and Manhattan. See prior post, one week ago.

Rockland again had the highest death rate outside of New York City, rising from 1.6 to 13.5, a huge increase of nearly tenfold. Nassau, which had been behind Suffolk last week, rose from 0.7 deaths per 100,000 to 10.3, an increase of nearly 15-fold. Suffolk's death rate rose five-fold. Westchester's death rate rose from 0.1 per 100,000 to 7.1, a 71-fold increase...

Sources: New York Times Interactive for population data except NYS and NYC, Cases per 100,000 pop. and Deaths. NY State Population from World Population Review as of 2020-02-17, retrieved 2020-04-03.  NY City population as of 2019, Census estimate. Death rates computed by JTM.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has found the same pattern emerging in the United States as has prevailed in other countries in Asia and Europe, namely the hardest hit are the older age groups.

Especially vulnerable are those 85 and older, for whom the death rate is more than 10 percent of the number of confirmed cases.

This is why so many cases and deaths are being found in nursing homes.

NEW YORK STATE | County Deaths from COVID (1)

This table is updated on April 3, 2020.

March 27, 2020–As of yesterday, Bronx County (Borough of The Bronx) was the epicenter of coronavirus fatalities, within the New York City epicenter. 

It had suffered 5.8 deaths per 100,000 population, the highest rate of the large counties. 

The table shows all the New York counties with 300,000 population or more. NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo's observation that density is a key predictor of the spread of the virus is generally valid. However, within the five counties/boroughs of New York City, the fatalities may be affected by where people work, where they live and where they are hospitalized. 

The data in the table should be watched as an indicator of how the virus is spreading within the state and how hospitals are being challenged by lack of masks, testing kits and ventilators. New York State this week is where other states may be in three weeks.

LONG ISLAND | Jobs Grow Just 0.4%

December 2017 Job Growth, Nassau-Suffolk – 0.4%.
Source: BLS (bls.gov), Feb. 6, 2018.

February 6, 2018 – If JOBS-JOBS-JOBS is the standard, the first year of the new Administration in Washington, D.C. has failed Long Island.

Nassau-Suffolk added only 4,900 nonfarm payroll jobs from December 2017 to December 2018, according to data released today by the BLS.

The growth rate of 0.4 percent is one-third of NY State's rate of job growth for the period, and less than half the rate of job growth in the entire tristate New York metro area. It is less than one-sixth of the growth rate in the other major area component outside the core New York City metro area, i.e., Dutchess and Putnam counties.

So what has the Republican Congressman representing Long Island's Eastern Half been doing about bringing jobs to Long Island? His latest post on the topic on his official website was during his last campaign year, 2016.

(For a general summary of Zeldin's political positions, go here. He rode in on the howdahs of the Tea Party Republicans. His votes and public statements peg him as a "libertarian conservative", an oxymoron since conservatives are anti-libertarian on social policies.

Zeldin thinks that Suffolk County, which depends on clean water and air for its tourism and leisure-living businesses, and was clobbered by the Meltdown of 2008, needs less environmental and financial regulation.

That doesn't seem to have worked so well for Suffolk County.

His New Idea in 2016 was...

• Make It Easier to Pollute and Rip Off Financial Customers by allowing Congress to block regulation of the environment and financial fiduciaries. 
• Make Environmental and Financial Regulation Harder for the Executive Branch to implement!

Read below, in its entirety, Zeldin's proposal in March 2016 for creating jobs on Long Island.

March 15, 2016  

Press Release 

Op-ed Written by Congressman Lee Zeldin (NY-01)

During my first 14 months in Congress, I have constantly heard from business owners on Long Island sharing stories about how various examples of bureaucratic red tape out of Washington has made it increasingly difficult to create more good paying, private sector jobs. The Department of Labor “Fiduciary Rule,” the EPA’s effort to put the motorsports and custom car industry out of business, and the attempt of federal regulators to impose overzealous Dodd-Frank regulations on auto lenders are just three of many new federal agency regulations that harm the business climate on Long Island and throughout our nation. As each new rule is passed, we are reminded of why it is so important for Congress to pass the Regulations for the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act (H.R. 427).

Under the REINS Act, every major rule or regulation with an economic effect of $100 million or more annually would be required to be specifically approved by the House and Senate, in addition to the President, before the rule takes effect. This legislation is about smart policy and balance of power. Here are three brief examples of why the REINS Act is so important:

Example #1: Many Long Islanders, when seeking something as critical as life insurance or retirement savings advice, want to go to a trusted broker who is a part of their local community. Planning for retirement and managing a family’s investment portfolio to save for college or buy a new home is an essential piece of the American dream. The Department of Labor, through its “fiduciary rule,” is shutting down that dream by overregulating independent financial advisors and life insurance brokers out of business. By imposing regulations and fees meant for larger, multi-billion dollar Wall Street firms, the one-size-fits all approach proposed by federal regulators would kill an industry that is run by small entrepreneurs and built on personal relationships. By the Labor Department’s own admission, in 2010, those individuals who did not seek or have access to investment advice suffered over $100 billion in financial losses through investment mistakes, which could have easily been avoided with the appropriate level of consultation. Saving for retirement is of crucial importance to American families and access to professional financial advice should not be hindered by an unnecessary regulation put in place by unelected agency bureaucrats creating rules that carry the force of law.

Example #2: The Clean Air Act has been a resounding success and in Congress I have been an outspoken advocate for clean air and clean water on Long Island [???]. The EPA is attempting to go around Congress, ignoring the Constitution by creating new interpretations of this law, which would hurt small and medium sized businesses. Current rules proposed by the EPA would effectively shut down the motorsports and car modification industry by imposing the same level of regulations meant for power plants and other major industries. By banning certain modifications made to cars and motorcycles, and applying these misguided regulations retroactively, hobbyists, who have invested countless time and money into their cars, would suddenly be in violation of a set of federal regulations that were never vetted by their representatives in Congress. Small and medium sized businesses on Long Island, like American Racing Headers, that supply specialty automotive parts to customers nationwide, are already seeing a reduction in business as a direct result of the threats surrounding these new rules. 

Example #3: The indirect auto loan market just surpassed $1 trillion, making it one of the most essential, and competitive financial markets in our economy. In a misguided change of policy, based on flawed statistics, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is attempting to shut down transparency in the auto lending market by mandating new standards that they falsely believe will increase fairness in the market. Consumers on Long Island should not be cut off from needed credit due to arbitrary government regulations. A transparent and competitive auto lending market means consumers will get the best rates, but bureaucrats in Washington want to impose strict Dodd Frank financial regulations meant for Wall Street that would shut down the indirect auto loan market so essential to main street Long Island. 

What has always made America so great has been the opportunity to succeed through hard work and dedication, but unfortunately today, economic opportunity is being stripped away with oppressive taxes and burdensome red tape on America’s businesses. President Obama’s first seven years have brought forth 468 regulations deemed “economically significant rules”, and that’s with just under a year still to go. (CEI) The Fiduciary Rule, the attack on the motorsports industry by the EPA, and the CFPB’s attempted overregulation of auto-lending, are just three of the rules that have made it harder for business owners to succeed in today’s economy.

To address this issue, I proudly voted for the REINS Act when it passed the House last year, as well as other essential pieces of legislation to shut-down job killing red tape. This critical legislation would give Congress more oversight over the most broad and harmful regulations being implemented by federal agencies. Allowing the executive branch to implement major regulations, without Congressional oversight or input, will only further hurt the ability of our job creators to expand and create more good paying jobs. Americans should demand that Congress take the REINS to help grow our economy.  [End of Zeldin Op-Ed]

If this is the best that Zeldin can come up with to create jobs on Long Island, no wonder jobs have grown only 0.4% during the year. Long Island needs better ideas.

Issues: 

Jobs and Economic Growth

INCOMES | U.S. Counties, 2013

The dark blue areas have seen significantly higher personal incomes in 2013.
The brown areas have been flat or have seen declines. The others are
closer to the national average increase of 1.3 percent.

Personal income data by county for 2013 were just released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Of course, the numbers being for the year 2013 when it's nearly 2015, the reaction could be: Ho hum.

But the delay is made up for by the reliability and importance of the numbers. They provide a good comparative look at the counties.

Personal income data by county tell us how their neighbors are doing over time and relative to the rest of the country.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers on jobs and unemployment are released faster because we agree to suspend disbelief in our eagerness to have the data in our hands. The BLS tries to adjust the data to mask the variability of the data resulting from seasonality and small sample coverage in the household survey. The BEA's per capita personal income numbers by county are closer to a final answer to the important question: "How are we doing, money-wise?"

Some regional data are in the table below, abbreviated to make it easier to talk about and handle (the full table is at www.bea.gov under "Regional"). The top line is the summary for the United States. Per capita income grew from $42,332 in 2011 to $44,765 in 2013. There was quite a jump between 2011 and 2012, 4.4 percent, but the increase between 2012 and 2013 was less than one-third the rate, 1.3 percent.

Knowing that the country as a whole had a spurt of personal income in 2012 and then fell back to a lower rate in 2013 helps interpret how each state and county was doing.

The states vary considerably among themselves and between years in the change in their share of the increased income. Arkansas jumped 6.8 percent in 2012 and then rose only 0.8 percent in 2013. The District of Columbia actually saw a loss of per capita income in 2013, but at $75,950 in 2012 that was a loss from a high base.

The variability is even greater among counties. Indian River County (Vero Beach) saw its per capita income grow 5 percent in 2012, but then it declined in 2013. Palm Beach grew 4.8 percent from its high base of $57,252 and kept growing in 2013 at the national rate of 1.3 percent.

Table 1. Per Capita Personal Income by County, 2011-2013	Per capita personal income and Rank in State				Change and Rank in State
	Dollars			Rank	Percent change		Rank
	2011	2012	2013	2013	2012	2013	2013
United States	42,332	44,200	44,765	--	4.4	1.3	--
Alabama	35,010	35,942	36,481	--	2.7	1.5	--
Alaska	48,181	49,906	50,150	--	3.6	0.5	--
Arizona	35,512	36,624	36,983	--	3.1	1.0	--
Arkansas	34,089	36,423	36,698	--	6.8	0.8	--
California	44,749	47,505	48,434	--	6.2	2.0	--
Colorado	44,183	46,315	46,897	--	4.8	1.3	--
Connecticut	57,547	60,223	60,658	--	4.7	0.7	--
Delaware	42,696	44,031	44,815	--	3.1	1.8	--
District of Columbia	74,103	75,950	75,329	--	2.5	-0.8	--
Florida	40,215	41,041	41,497	--	2.1	1.1	--
Indian River (Vero)	51,890	54,501	54,448	5	5.0	-0.1	62
Miami-Dade	38,242	39,467	39,880	17	3.2	1.0	41
Orange (Orlando)	36,333	37,479	37,844	24	3.2	1.0	44
Palm Beach	54,616	57,252	57,985	2	4.8	1.3	34
St. Lucie	31,289	30,932	31,182	40	-1.1	0.8	49
Georgia	36,422	37,229	37,845	--	2.2	1.7	--
Hawaii	42,989	44,578	45,204	--	3.7	1.4	--
Idaho	33,677	35,142	36,146	--	4.4	2.9	--
Illinois	44,169	46,009	46,980	--	4.2	2.1	--
Cook	46,966	48,948	49,661	7	4.2	1.5	90
Indiana	36,367	38,136	38,622	--	4.9	1.3	--
Iowa	42,656	44,014	44,763	--	3.2	1.7	--
Kansas	42,098	43,380	44,417	--	3.0	2.4	--
Kentucky	34,568	35,857	36,214	--	3.7	1.0	--
Louisiana	38,501	40,617	41,204	--	5.5	1.4	--
Maine	38,802	39,863	40,924	--	2.7	2.7	--
Maryland	52,191	53,659	53,826	--	2.8	0.3	--
Baltimore	51,886	53,835	54,009	6	3.8	0.3	14
Baltimore City	42,071	43,386	44,053	15	3.1	1.5	10
Massachusetts	54,235	56,713	57,248	--	4.6	0.9	--
Suffolk	55,608	57,491	57,660	6	3.4	0.3	14
Michigan	37,163	38,585	39,055	--	3.8	1.2	--
Minnesota	45,220	47,377	47,500	--	4.8	0.3	--
Mississippi	32,108	33,446	33,913	--	4.2	1.4	--
Missouri	38,016	39,933	40,663	--	5.0	1.8	--
Montana	36,890	39,142	39,366	--	6.1	0.6	--
Nebraska	43,721	45,914	47,157	--	5.0	2.7	--
Nevada	37,445	39,229	39,235	--	4.8	0.0	--
New Hampshire	47,664	50,056	51,013	--	5.0	1.9	--
New Jersey	53,323	54,932	55,386	--	3.0	0.8	--
Atlantic	41,397	42,288	42,425	19	2.2	0.3	18
Bergen	67,248	69,281	69,495	4	3.0	0.3	19
Burlington	49,471	51,149	51,638	12	3.4	1.0	12
Camden	44,229	45,063	45,544	15	1.9	1.1	9
Cape May	50,908	53,070	53,932	9	4.2	1.6	3
Cumberland	35,413	35,468	35,825	21	0.2	1.0	10
Essex	53,597	54,318	54,606	7	1.3	0.5	15
Gloucester	43,488	44,833	45,169	16	3.1	0.7	13
Hudson	49,111	49,978	50,172	13	1.8	0.4	17
Hunterdon	69,717	74,534	75,523	2	6.9	1.3	6
Mercer	53,037	55,933	56,906	6	5.5	1.7	2
Middlesex	50,267	51,730	52,291	11	2.9	1.1	7
Monmouth	59,875	61,997	62,901	5	3.5	1.5	4
Morris	71,914	74,826	75,054	3	4.0	0.3	20
Ocean	42,121	43,016	43,214	18	2.1	0.5	16
Passaic	43,853	44,600	44,688	17	1.7	0.2	21
Salem	41,138	41,550	41,997	20	1.0	1.1	8
Somerset	72,704	76,918	77,685	1	5.8	1.0	11
Sussex	50,800	52,592	52,958	10	3.5	0.7	14
Union	52,297	53,638	54,382	8	2.6	1.4	5
Warren	46,070	48,115	49,040	14	4.4	1.9	1
New York	51,941	54,099	54,462	--	4.2	0.7	--
Albany	50,275	52,587	53,515	7	4.6	1.8	16
Bronx	32,565	32,680	32,852	60	0.4	0.5	44
Dutchess	47,083	49,378	49,627	10	4.9	0.5	48
Erie	42,925	45,063	45,496	16	5.0	1.0	35
Essex	36,268	38,392	39,309	34	5.9	2.4	4
Kings	41,038	42,211	42,306	24	2.9	0.2	53
Nassau	68,979	72,460	72,549	3	5.0	0.1	58
New York	116,329	120,382	121,632	1	3.5	1.0	34
Putnam	55,844	58,865	58,955	4	5.4	0.2	56
Queens	43,140	44,431	44,966	19	3.0	1.2	27
Rensselaer	41,961	43,371	44,152	22	3.4	1.8	15
Richmond	49,839	51,223	51,328	9	2.8	0.2	55
Rockland	54,294	56,746	56,657	6	4.5	-0.2	60
Suffolk	53,774	56,819	56,940	5	5.7	0.2	54
Ulster	41,818	44,045	44,527	20	5.3	1.1	30
Westchester	75,291	80,505	80,363	2	6.9	-0.2	61
North Carolina	36,508	38,538	38,683	--	5.6	0.4	--
North Dakota	47,868	56,310	53,182	--	17.6	-5.6	--
Steele	55,909	81,029	53,918	16	44.9	-33.5	50
Ohio	38,631	40,230	41,049	--	4.1	2.0	--
Oklahoma	38,980	41,399	41,861	--	6.2	1.1	--
Oregon	37,707	39,258	39,848	--	4.1	1.5	--
Pennsylvania	43,806	45,577	46,202	--	4.0	1.4	--
Rhode Island	44,571	46,257	46,989	--	3.8	1.6	--
South Carolina	34,079	35,347	35,831	--	3.7	1.4	--
South Dakota	44,439	45,676	46,039	--	2.8	0.8	--
Tennessee	37,151	39,002	39,558	--	5.0	1.4	--
Texas	41,016	43,271	43,862	--	5.5	1.4	--
Utah	34,235	35,891	36,640	--	4.8	2.1	--
Vermont	42,968	44,443	45,483	--	3.4	2.3	--
Virginia	47,076	48,715	48,838	--	3.5	0.3	--
Washington	44,565	47,055	47,717	--	5.6	1.4	--
West Virginia	33,954	35,140	35,533	--	3.5	1.1	--
Wisconsin	40,780	42,475	43,244	--	4.2	1.8	--
Wyoming	49,260	52,469	52,826	--	6.5	0.7	--
1. Per capita personal income was computed using Census Bureau midyear population estimates. Estimates reflect county population estimates available as of March 2014.
2. Percent change was calculated from unrounded data.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The New York State counties are interesting. The average incomes confirm the reputation of Manhattan (New York County) as dwarfing neighboring county incomes. The next-highest skip over the "Outer Boroughs" and go to Westchester, Nassau, Putnam, Suffolk and Rockland counties in New York State and a similar group of high rollers in New Jersey. Westchester saw a big 6.9 percent leap in personal income in 2012, but it and Rockland both saw a small decline in per capita incomes in 2013.

Notice the oddly high variability of per capita income in Steele County, ND. A 45 percent increase in 2012 and a one-third decrease in 2013. However, the explanation is simple. The total population of the county is under 2,000 people, so a few families with highly correlated incomes - for example, all dependent upon revenue from the same oil well - could skew the county numbers.