PERRY GERSHON | Kate Browning Says Vote for Him

Kate Browning (2nd from left) supports Perry Gershon
(center). (Newsday photo.)

When voters in New York's Congressional District 1 get their ballots to vote on, they will see Kate Browning on the Women's Equality line.

This is not because Kate Browning is still a candidate for Congress. She has thrown her support to Perry Gershon. She did this immediately after the Democratic primary in June, when she came in second after Perry Gershon. This was a breakthrough moment when all four of Perry's primary opponents agreed to show up at a unity party to support Perry.

Apparently, the voting laws in New York State prohibit removal of a candidate's name from a ballot unless the candidate is up for another office. So Kate Browning's name is there.

What to do? If you are a Perry Gershon supporter, shifting your vote to Kate Browning does nothing for Perry. Don't do it. Votes for her on this ballot do not accrue to Perry even though she supports him. The votes are counted and then disappear. You are not doing what Kate Browning wants.

However, if you are a Lee Zeldin voter and cannot bring yourself to vote for a Democrat under any circumstances, here is your opportunity to show your solidarity with those concerned about the rights of women. Here is your chance to express your disgust at the Cavanaugh appointment, for example. Ladies and gentlemen of Tea Party/Trump inclination, here is your chance to express yourself on the cause of women. Your vote will be counted on behalf of women even though you could not bring yourself to vote for a Democrat. Lee Zeldin will know why you didn't vote for him.

ZERO ZELDIN | Reasons to Vote Against Him

The following cartoon is posted with permission of the author/illustrator, The Noir Guy.

GERSHON | Why I Am Voting for Perry, by an ex-Republican

Why Is Zeldin Smiling?

The following op-ed by former Republican Michael Koegler appeared in the Southampton Press this week. 

I thank Mr. Koegler for an astonishingly clear and simple statement why defeating Lee Zeldin is such a priority right now for Americans concerned about keeping their democracy.

Zeldin is a mini-Trump and is a weak spokesperson for his own district. Much worse, he does not represent America because his Tea Party gang is part of the reason his party in Congress does not provide an adequate check on a President who daily shows his disrespect of our Constitution. Zeldin must be voted out on November 6.  Vote for Perry Gershon. Volunteer. Give money. One place to go – https://www.perrygershon.com.

P.S. Oct. 22: Don't miss Rachel Maddow's takedown of a sleazy Lee Zeldin voter-suppression tactic, sending mailers to Democrats with the wrong deadline for sending in absentee ballots. He did it in 2016 and said "Oops, sorry." Then he does it again in 2018 and says: "Oops, sorry." It's like the song "I didn't know the gun was loaded, I'm so sorry my friend," which goes on for several verses and several accidental deaths. Here's the Rachel Maddow clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3pK9dspnDQ.

Why I Am Voting for Perry, By Michael Koegler

I have been following the race in NY01 from the very beginning of the primary season. The first time I met Perry Gershon was at the Democratic candidate’s forum held at the Stony Brook College campus in Southampton on January 6^th. At that time there were six candidates vying to unseat incumbent Republican Lee Zeldin in this year’s general election. All of the candidates made their pitches regarding healthcare, gun control and issues related to international relations such as moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. I had not made up my mind as to whom I would support and went to the event with an open mind. I listened to all of the candidates articulate their positions on many of these important issues and decided that Perry Gershon was the best one of the group to challenge Lee Zeldin in the general election.

Fast-forward nine months and here we are six weeks away from one of the most important elections in the history of the United States. That is a bold statement so let me try to explain why I feel that way.

There used to be a time not too long ago when I was a Republican. I switched my affiliation after the 2008 financial crisis because I felt that the Republican Party had lost its way as a result of the Tea Party and the ultra-partisan politics that they ushered in. No one represents the ultra-partisan Tea Party politics in this country more than Lee Zeldin.

During his term in office, Lee Zeldin has showered praise on Donald Trump and demonized all of those that have been critical of him and his administration. He has enabled Trump’s criticism of the press, FBI, justice department, intelligence community and anyone else that happens to be the target of a Trump tweet storm. He is not willing to provide a check to Trump’s power and been nothing less than a Trump sycophant, parroting his hateful and petty rhetoric without regard for the damage it causes our Democracy. Zeldin has also perpetuated many of Trump’s conspiracy theories, including his claims that there was no election interference by the Russian government and that the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt.

It is one thing to play partisan politics, but another thing altogether when you fail in your responsibility to defend our Democracy and the constitution. Zeldin’s unwillingness to keep a check on Donald Trump is the single biggest reason to vote for Perry Gershon in November. To be clear, I do not believe that Trump should be impeached, but we desperately need a check on his power. Lee Zeldin is not willing to do that, but Perry Gershon is. It is time for change.

EAST END DEMOCRATS UNIFY (Updated July 6)

Democratic Nominee for Congress Perry Gershon at
Democratic Unity Rally, with 235 in Attendance.

EAST HAMPTON, NY, Monday, July 2— Local Democrats held a successful Unity Rally to celebrate unified opposition to the current NY-1 U.S. Representative in Congress, Tea Party zealot Lee Zeldin.

All of the four candidates who did not win last week’s Democratic primary showed up yesterday to support the winner, Perry Gershon.

Despite 91-degree heat, 235 friends and supporters showed up to pledge their support for Gershon.

Perry Gershon, Winner of the
Democratic Primary, to Run Against
Lee Zeldin. Photos by E Rautenberg.

Momentum continued from the estimated 75 percent increase in turnout over that of the 2016 primary.

The event was attended by two Democratic Members of Congress — 15-term Representative Nita Lowey, from the NY-17 (Westchester), and 12-term Representative Carolyn Maloney, from the NY-12 (East Side Manhattan, West Queens, North Brooklyn).

Also speaking was New York State Assemblywoman Christine Pellegrino, who in May won a celebrated upset victory in a district on the Nassau-Suffolk county line that has been strongly Republican.

Supporters of Gershon

The event was held at a private home in the center of East Hampton’s Springs Historic District.

The East Hampton event was organized by several grassroots organizations that have emerged since the election of the president, primarily East End Resist & Replace, with encouragement from Let’s Visit Lee Zeldin and others, in collaboration with the East Hampton Town Democratic Party.

Alice Tepper Marlin
Welcomes Guests

Participants in the event included Peter Van Scoyoc, Town Supervisor, and members of the Board such as Sylvia Overby. Former Congressman Tim Bishop was also on hand.

Speakers discussed activities applicable to all areas of the country for defeating allies of President Donald Trump.

Said Gershon: “The turnout here is a sign that this district doesn’t want more out-of-touch politicians like Lee Zeldin and Donald Trump, but a movement that’s striving for a better future for us all. It’s time to fire Lee Zeldin, take back the House, and stop Donald Trump.”

Added Kate Browning, who finished the primary in second place: “With buddies at his kickoff event like Sean Spicer and Sebastian Gorka, and his support for terrible policies like ripping apart families, it's clear Lee Zeldin belongs on Fox & Friends — not representing Suffolk families in Congress.”

The volunteers checking in guests counted 210 people, with another dozen from Perry Gershon's campaign team. The total attendance count was 235.

Guests were asked to volunteer to work on the campaign, and 76 signed up to do canvassing, 77 phone-banking, 49 to host a party, 32 to host a fundraiser, and 55 to do voter registration. The hard work is just beginning. (Story in the East Hampton Star here: http://easthamptonstar.com/Government/2018705/After-Primary-Democrats-Project-Unity)

Peter Van Scoyoc, East Hampton Town Supervisor, calls on the four candidates who did not win the Primary to express their support for the winning candidate. They all were there and they all gave their support. It was a turning point for many.

See also "Pink Army Forming" https://cityeconomist.blogspot.com/2018/07/anti-trump-bump-women-dominated.html.

SUFFOLK, NY | Job Growth – A Zero for Zeldin

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, data released May 23,
2018. www.bls.gov.

The Congressman from CD 1 in Suffolk County, New York, was first elected in 2014, and reelected in 2016. 

He has made creating jobs a central part of his program, one of the main issues highlighted on his own web site.

He said in 2016 he would go to Washington, work with the Tea Party to reduce environmental and other regulations, and "help grow our economy and create more good paying jobs".

So how's it going with that, Mr. Zeldin?

Numbers just came out today for the fourth quarter of 2017. They show that Suffolk County ranked 309th out of the 347 largest counties for growth during 2017, comparing fourth quarter 2017 with the fourth quarter of the previous year.

The growth rate was Point One Percent. That's one-tenth of one percent. That is statistically equivalent to Zero.

Compare that with Brooklyn (King's County), which grew 41 times as fast, 4.1 percent, and ranked 14th out of the 347 largest counties.

Zeldin has had two terms to prove he can make a difference in job growth. I would say he flunks his own test. He has not helped grow the economy. He has not "created more good-paying jobs". Time's up!

LONG ISLAND | Jobs Grow Just 0.4%

December 2017 Job Growth, Nassau-Suffolk – 0.4%.
Source: BLS (bls.gov), Feb. 6, 2018.

February 6, 2018 – If JOBS-JOBS-JOBS is the standard, the first year of the new Administration in Washington, D.C. has failed Long Island.

Nassau-Suffolk added only 4,900 nonfarm payroll jobs from December 2017 to December 2018, according to data released today by the BLS.

The growth rate of 0.4 percent is one-third of NY State's rate of job growth for the period, and less than half the rate of job growth in the entire tristate New York metro area. It is less than one-sixth of the growth rate in the other major area component outside the core New York City metro area, i.e., Dutchess and Putnam counties.

So what has the Republican Congressman representing Long Island's Eastern Half been doing about bringing jobs to Long Island? His latest post on the topic on his official website was during his last campaign year, 2016.

(For a general summary of Zeldin's political positions, go here. He rode in on the howdahs of the Tea Party Republicans. His votes and public statements peg him as a "libertarian conservative", an oxymoron since conservatives are anti-libertarian on social policies.

Zeldin thinks that Suffolk County, which depends on clean water and air for its tourism and leisure-living businesses, and was clobbered by the Meltdown of 2008, needs less environmental and financial regulation.

That doesn't seem to have worked so well for Suffolk County.

His New Idea in 2016 was...

• Make It Easier to Pollute and Rip Off Financial Customers by allowing Congress to block regulation of the environment and financial fiduciaries. 
• Make Environmental and Financial Regulation Harder for the Executive Branch to implement!

Read below, in its entirety, Zeldin's proposal in March 2016 for creating jobs on Long Island.

March 15, 2016  

Press Release 

Op-ed Written by Congressman Lee Zeldin (NY-01)

During my first 14 months in Congress, I have constantly heard from business owners on Long Island sharing stories about how various examples of bureaucratic red tape out of Washington has made it increasingly difficult to create more good paying, private sector jobs. The Department of Labor “Fiduciary Rule,” the EPA’s effort to put the motorsports and custom car industry out of business, and the attempt of federal regulators to impose overzealous Dodd-Frank regulations on auto lenders are just three of many new federal agency regulations that harm the business climate on Long Island and throughout our nation. As each new rule is passed, we are reminded of why it is so important for Congress to pass the Regulations for the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act (H.R. 427).

Under the REINS Act, every major rule or regulation with an economic effect of $100 million or more annually would be required to be specifically approved by the House and Senate, in addition to the President, before the rule takes effect. This legislation is about smart policy and balance of power. Here are three brief examples of why the REINS Act is so important:

Example #1: Many Long Islanders, when seeking something as critical as life insurance or retirement savings advice, want to go to a trusted broker who is a part of their local community. Planning for retirement and managing a family’s investment portfolio to save for college or buy a new home is an essential piece of the American dream. The Department of Labor, through its “fiduciary rule,” is shutting down that dream by overregulating independent financial advisors and life insurance brokers out of business. By imposing regulations and fees meant for larger, multi-billion dollar Wall Street firms, the one-size-fits all approach proposed by federal regulators would kill an industry that is run by small entrepreneurs and built on personal relationships. By the Labor Department’s own admission, in 2010, those individuals who did not seek or have access to investment advice suffered over $100 billion in financial losses through investment mistakes, which could have easily been avoided with the appropriate level of consultation. Saving for retirement is of crucial importance to American families and access to professional financial advice should not be hindered by an unnecessary regulation put in place by unelected agency bureaucrats creating rules that carry the force of law.

Example #2: The Clean Air Act has been a resounding success and in Congress I have been an outspoken advocate for clean air and clean water on Long Island [???]. The EPA is attempting to go around Congress, ignoring the Constitution by creating new interpretations of this law, which would hurt small and medium sized businesses. Current rules proposed by the EPA would effectively shut down the motorsports and car modification industry by imposing the same level of regulations meant for power plants and other major industries. By banning certain modifications made to cars and motorcycles, and applying these misguided regulations retroactively, hobbyists, who have invested countless time and money into their cars, would suddenly be in violation of a set of federal regulations that were never vetted by their representatives in Congress. Small and medium sized businesses on Long Island, like American Racing Headers, that supply specialty automotive parts to customers nationwide, are already seeing a reduction in business as a direct result of the threats surrounding these new rules. 

Example #3: The indirect auto loan market just surpassed $1 trillion, making it one of the most essential, and competitive financial markets in our economy. In a misguided change of policy, based on flawed statistics, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is attempting to shut down transparency in the auto lending market by mandating new standards that they falsely believe will increase fairness in the market. Consumers on Long Island should not be cut off from needed credit due to arbitrary government regulations. A transparent and competitive auto lending market means consumers will get the best rates, but bureaucrats in Washington want to impose strict Dodd Frank financial regulations meant for Wall Street that would shut down the indirect auto loan market so essential to main street Long Island. 

What has always made America so great has been the opportunity to succeed through hard work and dedication, but unfortunately today, economic opportunity is being stripped away with oppressive taxes and burdensome red tape on America’s businesses. President Obama’s first seven years have brought forth 468 regulations deemed “economically significant rules”, and that’s with just under a year still to go. (CEI) The Fiduciary Rule, the attack on the motorsports industry by the EPA, and the CFPB’s attempted overregulation of auto-lending, are just three of the rules that have made it harder for business owners to succeed in today’s economy.

To address this issue, I proudly voted for the REINS Act when it passed the House last year, as well as other essential pieces of legislation to shut-down job killing red tape. This critical legislation would give Congress more oversight over the most broad and harmful regulations being implemented by federal agencies. Allowing the executive branch to implement major regulations, without Congressional oversight or input, will only further hurt the ability of our job creators to expand and create more good paying jobs. Americans should demand that Congress take the REINS to help grow our economy.  [End of Zeldin Op-Ed]

If this is the best that Zeldin can come up with to create jobs on Long Island, no wonder jobs have grown only 0.4% during the year. Long Island needs better ideas.

Issues: 

Jobs and Economic Growth

NEW YORK | GOP Passes "Decimating" Budget

October 26, 2017 – This morning, the House of Representatives passed a budget that the bi-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes as using "gimmicks", increasing debt and exercising "Zero Fiscal Restraint".

For New York State residents, the bill is especially threatening because it eliminates the deductibility of State and Local Taxes (SALT) from taxable incomes.

When this idea was introduced under President Reagan, it was described as "double taxation". The CEO of American Express predicted that the value of the company's new building would drop by 25 percent, from $1 billion to $750 million. The proposal was defeated.

Under President Trump, the idea was resurrected and has passed both the Senate and the House.

On Long Island, two Republican Congressman opted to vote against the bill:

• One of them, Rep. Peter King, said: "Why should I vote for something that would end up decimating my district?" 
• The other, Lee Zeldin, represents most of Suffolk County. 

The bill has passed by a few votes and now goes back to a House-Senate conference for reconciliation.

New York voters are watching carefully. If King and Zeldin think that they will be forgiven for this "decimating" GOP budget because they voted against it, they may be in for a surprise. 

ZELDIN | Lee Z's No Eco-Hero – He's an Eco-Zero

Trump😘Zeldin
Lee Zeldin's Trump's friend,
On Long Island's East End.
Tea Party? He ran it.
No friends of the Planet.
(Clerihew by JT Marlin.)

The following letter has been published in the East Hampton Star, Thursday, August 10, 2017:

Against the Environment

Springs

August 7, 2017

Dear Mr. Rattray,

The Star’s article on Representative Lee Zeldin’s bill to study the future of Plum Island [http://bit.ly/2ueg4Gp] could leave the misleading impression that he is pro-environment. He is not.

Since he came to Washington, Zeldin’s votes have been approximately 10 to 1 against the environment, as measured by the nonpartisan League of Conservation Voters [http://bit.ly/2v7qR48]. 

Of 27 New York State members of Congress, he is among the three with the worst environmental record.

He is using the Plum Island bill to pose as environmentally friendly. But “his” bill was first introduced by the pro-environment former Representative Tim Bishop in 2013, when the threat that Plum Island could become a housing development, or even a Trump resort, was real [http://bit.ly/2v7RkwP].

Now the danger is much less. The Town of Southold put in place anti-development zoning changes; environmental groups with Morrison & Foerster [http://bit.ly/2uuzfH8], have sued to prevent commercial development of Plum Island, and the federal budget includes the cost of moving the animal disease research facility to Manhattan, Kan., in 2022.

So Zeldin’s press release grandstanding is cynical misdirection. Instead of being fooled, folks at home should watch his misbehavior in Washington. All of his prior votes in 2017 were against our ecology, including one to delay implementing anti-smog standards.

Zeldin is no eco-hero. His eco-vote is close to zero.

JOHN TEPPER MARLIN

ZELDIN | Voting to Doom the Planet

July 16, 2017 – Tell Zeldin you don't like his anti-environmental voting score as reported by the nonpartisan League of Conservation Voters.

For his first term, 2015-2016, his eco-score averaged 11 votes out of 100. A little better than  one pro-environmental vote out of ten.

(Check out each Roll Call vote and find out why Zeldin's votes are anti-environmental.) 

But as of today, his cumulative score is down to 9% (one vote for vs. ten against), because in 2017 he has voted for the environment zero times, and against it 12 times.

		Zeldin Votes To Date
Year	LCV Score	Pro-Env	Anti-Env	Total
2015	14%	5	30	35
2016	8%	3	35	38
2017, thru July 16	0%	0	12	12
To Date	9%	8	77	85

           

  9% Votes Pro-Environment

91% Votes Anti-Environment

Tell Zeldin you are shocked at his 10-to-1 anti-planet votes to date.

Washington, DC Office

1517 Longworth House Office Building

Washington, DC 20515

Phone: (202) 225-3826
Fax: (202) 225-3143

Main District Office

31 Oak Street

Suite 20

Patchogue, NY 11772

Phone: (631) 289-1097
Fax: (631) 289-1268

East End Office (Tues, Wed, Thurs, 10AM - 2PM) *By appointment only

30 West Main Street

Suite 201

Riverhead, NY 11901

Phone: (631) 209-4235

JOBS | Suffolk County, NY

How is Trump doing?

In 2010, Randy Altschuler attacked the incumbent congressman from Suffolk County, NY, Rep. Tim Bishop, for not doing enough for the Long Island economy.

He said that 30,000 jobs had left Long Island during Bishop's incumbency. I pointed out in an article on Huffington Post that the number was a lie. The correct figure was a gain of 36,000 jobs. Altschuler stopped using the number, but not until after he sent a glossy card to every voter with the lie plastered all over it.

Lee Zeldin was next to campaign against Bishop, in 2008. He lost badly in a Republican-leaning district. But in 2014 he adopted a straight Tea Party program, one of the first campaigners to do this. Here were his four main programs:

1. Oppose raising the Federal minimum wage.
2. Curtail Medicaid benefits. 
3. Simplify the Federal tax code and cut taxes on the rich. 
4. Cut Federal spending.

Zeldin was one of the first of the Tea Party electeds, in 2014. The GOP gained a majority in both the House and Senate in the 114th Congress, 2015-16. So how have Zeldin and the GOP Congress been helping Suffolk County? Let's ignore the first year, during which Zeldin was finding out where the bathrooms are in the maze of Capitol offices. Few Members of Congress make a dent in Washington in their first year (one reason for respecting seniority). Let's look at the second year of his term of office. How has the Suffolk County economy performed in 2016?

County-level numbers for jobs and wages are released quarterly and the numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016 were just released by the BLS on Wednesday. Here is the story for Suffolk:

Jobs. Suffolk's nonfarm payroll jobs rose to 661,400 in the fourth quarter of 2016, an increase of 900 jobs.

That's fewer than 1,000 jobs, compared with Bishop's presiding over growth of   36,000 jobs when he was attacked by the GOP for not doing enough for the economy.

The tiny growth rate during 2016 ranks 205th of 345 large counties for which the BLS computes this information, about 60 percent down the list. Within New York State, the growth rate is in the bottom half of the 18 large counties on the BLS list.

Wages. But maybe, has the quality of the jobs improved under Zeldin? What has happened to weekly wages? The news is much worse. Wages in Suffolk County declined by 3.5 percent, placing the county 289th out of 345 large U.S. counties, i.e., in the bottom fifth. Only two counties out of the 18 in New York State did worse.

This is not a good record. Since November 2016 the GOP has not only Congress but the White House, and a president who promised more jobs. We are waiting and watching.

JOBS | Rep. Tim Bishop and the Suffolk County

When Rep. Bishop was challenged two years ago for a second time by Randy Altschuler, Altschuler distributed tens of thousands of flyers accusing Bishop of having "forced more than 30,000 jobs to leave" Suffolk County.

That grossly erroneous number was based on an improper use of the household survey, which is based on a telephone interview of small sample of households to determine the unemployment rate.

Looking at the correct database, in September 2012, I showed that employment in Suffolk County had increased by 36,300 jobs, a difference of 66,300 jobs from that claimed by Altschuler.

Lee Zeldin, who has challenged Tim Bishop before in 2008, when Barack Obama swept into office, is back again in a different environment. When Zeldin first entered the 2014 race, he said his campaign would be based on economic issues.

In fact, Zeldin has avoided raising economic issues, and for a good reason. The national economy has been perking along to the point where recovery to an unemployment rate of less than 6 percent has finally occurred. Recovery is at a slower rate than anyone predicted, because the depth of the financial stress left in 2008 was greater than anyone knew at the time.

The economies of Suffolk County, Long Island, and Greater New York, have been doing fine, better than most of the rest of New York State and New Jersey.

To his credit, Zeldin has not attempted to argue that Suffolk County has lost jobs. His economic arguments, as outlined in this week's East Hampton Press (p. A5), have instead been drawn from the general ideology of the Tea Party, as follows:

• He opposes raising the Federal minimum wage, on the basis that it would be a burden on some small businesses.
• He argues that Medicaid is being abused and people should be denied the benefits.
• He says the Federal tax code should be simplified to reduce exploration of deductions and exemptions. He favors a flatter tax.
• He wants to cut Federal spending.
• He says he has had 48 new laws passed in Albany during the past four years.
• He voted for repeal of the MTA payroll tax and for a tax credit for New York State craft brewers.

Bishop answers that he is pragmatic and non-ideological, looking for solutions that benefit his constituents:

• He favors a minimum wage of $10.10 by 2016 to keep pace with inflation and help the working poor make ends meet. (The minimum wage and overtime laws have many exemptions based on type of business and type of employee; they reduce the impact on small businesses most concerned about the impact on their costs.)
• He has voted for tax cuts to help small businesses hire U.S. workers, has worked to eliminate tax loopholes to benefit companies outsourcing American jobs and favors tax cuts for the middle class.
• Having opposed efforts to end existing Medicare programs, he supports a guarantee of Medicare and Social Security. 
• He supports Federal spending on infrastructure spending, education and training - he led the fight for the Federal science and technology budget that was threatened and would have eliminated thousands of jobs at the Brookhaven National Lab.
• He is working with the FAA to ensure that a replacement of the air traffic control facility at Westbury is kept on Long Island.

Regardless whether one is a Democrat or a Republican, Tim Bishop has one huge advantage over Lee Zeldin - he has been in Congress since 2003. He knows his way around Washington. Zeldin does not. Bishop has built relationships with other Members of Congress, and has seniority on the committees he is a member of. He can do more for businesses and workers and jobs on the East End of Long Island than his challenger, who will be starting over from scratch.

Long Island Economy in an Election Year

Queens, Nassau and Suffolk Counties are comparable
economies, with 544,000 (Queens) to 640,500 (Suffolk) jobs.

With all of its U.S. reps in DC up for re-election in 2014, the latest quarter of data on jobs and wages is worth looking at with an eye to what it means for the political environment.

For example, in  New York's First Congressional District, which accounts for most of Suffolk County, both of the main candidates for the Republican nomination on June 24 (Lee Zeldin and George Demos) have announced that they plan to make their main issue the economy.

They plan to paint the incumbent, Rep. Tim Bishop, as a pro-regulation, pro-spending Democrat who has contributed to higher taxes in Suffolk County.

So it will pay to stay a step ahead of the electoral clamor and look at three counties that may help establish the context of the debate - Queens, Nassau and Suffolk. Their fourth-quarter 2013 jobs and wages data were just published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning.

• The three counties are remarkably similar in economic size, with between 49,000 (Queens) and 53,300 (Nassau) establishments.
• Of the three, Suffolk County has the most jobs, 640,500. Nassau is in second place with 616,700 jobs and Queens with 544,500.
• It is true that the growth in jobs in Suffolk County compared with the fourth quarter of 2012 is the slowest of the three counties, 1.2 percent, behind Queens with 1.5 percent and Nassau with 2.3 percent. But Suffolk's growth is near the U.S. median for the 335 largest counties - it's not terrible.
• Meanwhile, on the wage front, Suffolk has done very well. The average wage per week in the fourth quarter was $1,079, an increase of 1.9 percent over a year earlier. This is in the top one-sixth of all large counties in the nation. Suffolk's weekly wage is nearly as high as that of Nassau, at $1,120.
• However, during the same year that Suffolk's wages were rising, Nassau's were falling by 1.5 percent. Both Nassau and Suffolk wages are higher than in Queens, which has a weekly wage of $955, a 2.1 percent increase over 2012.

The job and salary data do not provide a prima facie case that either Suffolk or Nassau County suffers from over-regulation or over-taxation, at least compared with the rest of the United States.

If prior elections are a guide, however, don't under-estimate the ability of campaigners to find data to support the economic case they want to make against an incumbent.

If you torture data enough, they will confess.