ACT LOCALLY | Support for Candidates, 2018

A recent issue of the East Hampton Star editorialized about a “First District Dilemma for Democratic Voters” (July 5, 2018). I have been thinking about this.

The editorial addresses the problem of deciding where to donate time and money in elections. Does one give and work locally? Or is it better to send the money to national organizations that will allocate the money to where it is most likely to be effective.

I think that depends on how much one knows about the local candidate. How involved are we? For someone with no time to address the issues, sending a check to a national group that is prioritizing its funding of local campaigns for the House and Senate is a good move. If you have enough money to max out in a local campaign and then give more to a national group, there is no dilemma.

However, if a choice is really necessary, I have some experience to offer. I been volunteering for political campaigns for six decades and I have a point of view on what is effective. Just as investing in companies you understand is more likely to pay off than investment in schemes that you don’t, I have found that time or money spent on local campaigns has always been immensely more effective than the same effort or money invested in distant electoral districts.

A concerted local effort is something we can control and evaluate. We can see the results. Bravo if you can help candidates from out of town as well as local ones, but we should not delude ourselves into thinking that money and volunteering spent in areas we don’t understand is as effective–or as appreciated!–as local involvement.

So in New York Congressional District 1, where Perry Gershon is challenging Tea Party incumbent Lee Zeldin, my wife Alice and I are committing time and money to supporting Perry. He is a hugely superior candidate to Zeldin, someone who is on top of the issues that matter to me and apparently not to Zeldin. He won the Democratic Primary and received the support of all four of his opponents. There is a unity of purpose here that is rare in local politics.

So if you are summering on the East End of Long Island, or live here, support Perry. Send an email to declan@perrygershon.com. Perry understands the issues and makes thoughtful decisions about policy, and his staff will respond promptly to your interest in giving money or time to his campaign.

SUFFOLK, NY | Job Growth – A Zero for Zeldin

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, data released May 23,
2018. www.bls.gov.

The Congressman from CD 1 in Suffolk County, New York, was first elected in 2014, and reelected in 2016. 

He has made creating jobs a central part of his program, one of the main issues highlighted on his own web site.

He said in 2016 he would go to Washington, work with the Tea Party to reduce environmental and other regulations, and "help grow our economy and create more good paying jobs".

So how's it going with that, Mr. Zeldin?

Numbers just came out today for the fourth quarter of 2017. They show that Suffolk County ranked 309th out of the 347 largest counties for growth during 2017, comparing fourth quarter 2017 with the fourth quarter of the previous year.

The growth rate was Point One Percent. That's one-tenth of one percent. That is statistically equivalent to Zero.

Compare that with Brooklyn (King's County), which grew 41 times as fast, 4.1 percent, and ranked 14th out of the 347 largest counties.

Zeldin has had two terms to prove he can make a difference in job growth. I would say he flunks his own test. He has not helped grow the economy. He has not "created more good-paying jobs". Time's up!

LONG ISLAND | Jobs Grow Just 0.4%

December 2017 Job Growth, Nassau-Suffolk – 0.4%.
Source: BLS (bls.gov), Feb. 6, 2018.

February 6, 2018 – If JOBS-JOBS-JOBS is the standard, the first year of the new Administration in Washington, D.C. has failed Long Island.

Nassau-Suffolk added only 4,900 nonfarm payroll jobs from December 2017 to December 2018, according to data released today by the BLS.

The growth rate of 0.4 percent is one-third of NY State's rate of job growth for the period, and less than half the rate of job growth in the entire tristate New York metro area. It is less than one-sixth of the growth rate in the other major area component outside the core New York City metro area, i.e., Dutchess and Putnam counties.

So what has the Republican Congressman representing Long Island's Eastern Half been doing about bringing jobs to Long Island? His latest post on the topic on his official website was during his last campaign year, 2016.

(For a general summary of Zeldin's political positions, go here. He rode in on the howdahs of the Tea Party Republicans. His votes and public statements peg him as a "libertarian conservative", an oxymoron since conservatives are anti-libertarian on social policies.

Zeldin thinks that Suffolk County, which depends on clean water and air for its tourism and leisure-living businesses, and was clobbered by the Meltdown of 2008, needs less environmental and financial regulation.

That doesn't seem to have worked so well for Suffolk County.

His New Idea in 2016 was...

• Make It Easier to Pollute and Rip Off Financial Customers by allowing Congress to block regulation of the environment and financial fiduciaries. 
• Make Environmental and Financial Regulation Harder for the Executive Branch to implement!

Read below, in its entirety, Zeldin's proposal in March 2016 for creating jobs on Long Island.

March 15, 2016  

Press Release 

Op-ed Written by Congressman Lee Zeldin (NY-01)

During my first 14 months in Congress, I have constantly heard from business owners on Long Island sharing stories about how various examples of bureaucratic red tape out of Washington has made it increasingly difficult to create more good paying, private sector jobs. The Department of Labor “Fiduciary Rule,” the EPA’s effort to put the motorsports and custom car industry out of business, and the attempt of federal regulators to impose overzealous Dodd-Frank regulations on auto lenders are just three of many new federal agency regulations that harm the business climate on Long Island and throughout our nation. As each new rule is passed, we are reminded of why it is so important for Congress to pass the Regulations for the Executive in Need of Scrutiny (REINS) Act (H.R. 427).

Under the REINS Act, every major rule or regulation with an economic effect of $100 million or more annually would be required to be specifically approved by the House and Senate, in addition to the President, before the rule takes effect. This legislation is about smart policy and balance of power. Here are three brief examples of why the REINS Act is so important:

Example #1: Many Long Islanders, when seeking something as critical as life insurance or retirement savings advice, want to go to a trusted broker who is a part of their local community. Planning for retirement and managing a family’s investment portfolio to save for college or buy a new home is an essential piece of the American dream. The Department of Labor, through its “fiduciary rule,” is shutting down that dream by overregulating independent financial advisors and life insurance brokers out of business. By imposing regulations and fees meant for larger, multi-billion dollar Wall Street firms, the one-size-fits all approach proposed by federal regulators would kill an industry that is run by small entrepreneurs and built on personal relationships. By the Labor Department’s own admission, in 2010, those individuals who did not seek or have access to investment advice suffered over $100 billion in financial losses through investment mistakes, which could have easily been avoided with the appropriate level of consultation. Saving for retirement is of crucial importance to American families and access to professional financial advice should not be hindered by an unnecessary regulation put in place by unelected agency bureaucrats creating rules that carry the force of law.

Example #2: The Clean Air Act has been a resounding success and in Congress I have been an outspoken advocate for clean air and clean water on Long Island [???]. The EPA is attempting to go around Congress, ignoring the Constitution by creating new interpretations of this law, which would hurt small and medium sized businesses. Current rules proposed by the EPA would effectively shut down the motorsports and car modification industry by imposing the same level of regulations meant for power plants and other major industries. By banning certain modifications made to cars and motorcycles, and applying these misguided regulations retroactively, hobbyists, who have invested countless time and money into their cars, would suddenly be in violation of a set of federal regulations that were never vetted by their representatives in Congress. Small and medium sized businesses on Long Island, like American Racing Headers, that supply specialty automotive parts to customers nationwide, are already seeing a reduction in business as a direct result of the threats surrounding these new rules. 

Example #3: The indirect auto loan market just surpassed $1 trillion, making it one of the most essential, and competitive financial markets in our economy. In a misguided change of policy, based on flawed statistics, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is attempting to shut down transparency in the auto lending market by mandating new standards that they falsely believe will increase fairness in the market. Consumers on Long Island should not be cut off from needed credit due to arbitrary government regulations. A transparent and competitive auto lending market means consumers will get the best rates, but bureaucrats in Washington want to impose strict Dodd Frank financial regulations meant for Wall Street that would shut down the indirect auto loan market so essential to main street Long Island. 

What has always made America so great has been the opportunity to succeed through hard work and dedication, but unfortunately today, economic opportunity is being stripped away with oppressive taxes and burdensome red tape on America’s businesses. President Obama’s first seven years have brought forth 468 regulations deemed “economically significant rules”, and that’s with just under a year still to go. (CEI) The Fiduciary Rule, the attack on the motorsports industry by the EPA, and the CFPB’s attempted overregulation of auto-lending, are just three of the rules that have made it harder for business owners to succeed in today’s economy.

To address this issue, I proudly voted for the REINS Act when it passed the House last year, as well as other essential pieces of legislation to shut-down job killing red tape. This critical legislation would give Congress more oversight over the most broad and harmful regulations being implemented by federal agencies. Allowing the executive branch to implement major regulations, without Congressional oversight or input, will only further hurt the ability of our job creators to expand and create more good paying jobs. Americans should demand that Congress take the REINS to help grow our economy.  [End of Zeldin Op-Ed]

If this is the best that Zeldin can come up with to create jobs on Long Island, no wonder jobs have grown only 0.4% during the year. Long Island needs better ideas.

Issues: 

Jobs and Economic Growth

WIND FARMS | Alternative Energy, Offshore Turbines, Montauk

The largest U.S. array of new windmills in the ocean is being planned for the end of Long Island.

Called Deepwater One, the site is 30 miles from Montauk on the end of Long Island. It covers 256 square miles and can generate 1,000 Megawatts of electricity.

This "Guestwords" article appeared in the East Hampton Star on Thursday, November 2:

Let the Turbines Spin by Alice Tepper Marlin | The East Hampton Star

ELECTRICITY | Going Off the Grid

July 30, 2017 – An article by Diane Cardwell in today's issue of The New York 

Times describes how the Green Mountain electric utility in Vermont is helping 

customers go off the electric grid.

A 2015 article in Home Power Magazine lists four motivations for going off the grid:

1. Environmental concerns—a desire to use less energy and make as much as possible from renewable sources;

2. Independence from the electrical utility for philosophical reasons or to eliminate vulnerability from utility outages;

3. Political/social values, such as taking responsibility for your energy impacts;

4. Cost—depending on how far you are from the grid, it may make economic sense to stay disconnected.

There is a new strength to motivation #2 that stems from the increased exposure to hacking that was revealed by the 2016 election cycle – the danger of one or more of the U.S. regional power grids being blacked out by hackers. So what Green Mountain is doing is great news.

Another problem with using renewable energy to go off the grid is storage, since solar energy works only with sun and wind energy only with wind. Batteries are needed to store energy during the non-windy, non-sunny periods. The good news is that battery costs are coming down and availability is going up, and with the advent of the Volt and Tesla and other brands batteries will be included with every purchase of a new electric car. 

The Washington Post warned two years ago that going off the grid means that households that have invested in renewable energy are not going to be paid for the energy they send back to the grid. Where the feed-in tariff is high, this is a significant consideration. 

However, when the feed-in tariff is very low, this is not a consideration. PSEG on Long Island, for example, is charging something like 25 cents a kWh (what the consumer pays is subject to all kinds of variables), which is saved by using solar. But when it pays out for fed-in excess energy, it pays less than a nickel per kWh.

PSEG also shuts down renewable-energy suppliers whenever its service goes down, which adds to the user's incentive to go off the grid. The argument by the utilities is that all feeding in must be halted in order to protect the line workers from shock. As long as this argument is used, the consumer of electricity on Long Island will be looking for a way to get off the grid entirely.

ED BIZ | Manager-Sharing, Long Island, N.Y.

Greenport Schools have a positive attitude.

One of the ways that school districts can organize to buy better management of their schools for less money is to share management positions. 

Two schools on the North Fork of Long Island, in Greenport and Southold, are sharing a school superintendent.

David Gamberg serves two schools.

That way they can afford to pay the person more, while the cost is shared among twice as many taxpayers. Here is a story in Newsday about this. It was sent to me by someone who is seeking to improve the management of the Springs School.

Newsday.com, July 24, 2016
By John Hildebrand  john.hildebrand@newsday.com

Two communities on Long Island’s North Fork are taking joint management of their public schools to a new level in a rare initiative that supporters hold up as a model for localities across the state.

The partnership between Greenport and Southold schools got a boost two summers ago, when Superintendent David Gamberg started running both districts. It has expanded since, and the newest development came July 1, when Charles Scheid, assistant superintendent for business in Southold, took over the same administrative duties in neighboring Greenport.

The shared-management team includes Ryan Case, director of educational technology; Marcus DaSilva, assistant plants and facilities administrator; and Frank Mazzie, a business administrator and purchasing agent.

Last week, school administrators from both communities met at a diner on the Southold-Greenport border — “neutral ground,” as one participant put it — and heard a pep talk from Gamberg on the rewards and risks of double duty. The meeting was part of a daylong retreat to plan for the 2016-17 school year and beyond.

“None of this could work if each of you around the table was not able to be flexible,” said the superintendent, who had stressed the benefits of joint operations in an earlier interview. “The more we make these arrangements for sharing, the more opportunities there are for kids.”

Gamberg, 54, has spent many years in public education, including the past eight years as Southold’s school chief. An avid gardener, one of his pet projects is a “mini-farm” outside Southold Elementary School where students harvest hundreds of pounds of produce each year for sale and free distribution.

The superintendent, who technically is employed by Southold, has thrown himself into the cause of joint supervision. He divides his time equally between the two districts, and half his $243,280 annual salary is paid by Greenport under a cooperative arrangement known as an Inter-Municipal Agreement, or IMA.

Southold and Greenport are among a handful of the state’s 700-plus public school systems that share superintendents — and currently it is the only such arrangement on Long Island. In the past, several East End districts have shared school chiefs, including Greenport, where former Superintendent Michael Comanda also served several years as part-time head of the tiny New Suffolk district.

What makes the relationship between Greenport and Southold stand out, one Albany expert observed, is cooperation that goes far beyond the front office.

“This is the most extensive sharing of personnel that I’ve heard of, and it’s certainly more substantial than just sharing a superintendent,” said Robert Lowry, deputy director of the New York State Council of School Superintendents.

Others on Gamberg’s administrative team split their time under agreements with school boards in both districts. Scheid, for example, spends 60 percent of his time in Southold and 40 percent in Greenport, which has a smaller budget. Mazzie devotes 75 percent of his time to Greenport and 25 percent to Southold.

Participants acknowledged the plan’s complexities and said they would review school-management operations in six months to make sure the system is working to everyone’s satisfaction. Most said they are optimistic.

“I think people see it works with David as superintendent, so people can say, ‘Why wouldn’t the other positions work as well,’ ” said Paulette Ofrias, president of Southold’s school board.

Her counterpart on the Greenport board, Babette Cornine, noted that the two districts began talking about cooperative management in 2013, months before Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced a statewide drive for greater streamlining and efficiency in local governments.

“We were kind of ahead of the curve,” she said.

Gamberg estimated the two districts now are saving a combined $400,000 a year on administrative salaries and benefits. By the close of the 2016-17 school year, cumulative savings from the shared arrangement will exceed $1 million, he added.

“It does two things: It saves money, and it provides programs for students in both districts that they couldn’t do on their own,” said state Sen. Kenneth P. LaValle (R-Port Jefferson), whose constituency includes Greenport and Southold.

LaValle, who chairs the Senate’s Higher Education Committee, called the shared-management initiative a potential model for other districts. Pressures for financial savings have mounted since 2012, when the state imposed tax caps on schools and municipalities, he pointed out.

Some experts said school districts might find joint administration appealing, because it avoids complications that can accompany outright consolidation. When two districts merge, for instance, the wealthier of the two typically experiences a rise in taxes, while the other sees taxes reduced.

Measuring the financial impact of shared administration in Southold and Greenport is difficult, however, given their socioeconomic differences.

The 800-student Southold district is more affluent, with a higher median family income and fewer children on the subsidized lunch program. It traditionally has spent more money per student — about $36,300 to Greenport’s estimated $26,600, according to a calculation of budget divided by enrollment. Between 2014-15 and 2016-17, the district has maintained student programs and services while raising its budget less than 1 percent cumulatively — far below the Suffolk County average of 3.9 percent.

Greenport, on the other hand, recently added teachers and other staff in an effort to make up for cuts imposed during an earlier economic downturn. In addition, local residents in May approved a budget that exceeded the district’s tax cap. Spending in the system between 2014-15 and 2016-17 jumped more than 9 percent cumulatively as a result of staff additions and tax-cap overrides.

With the extra spending, though, Greenport’s offerings for its 675 students have improved. In 2014, for example, the district opened prekindergarten classes for 38 youngsters — a program that already was provided in Southold.

At the state level, fiscal experts said it was predictable that money saved through administrative streamlining would be used, in part, to restore or expand services.

In 2013, researchers at Cornell University’s Department of City and Regional Planning surveyed officials in 946 localities across the state and found that such funding shifts were common. One result, researchers said, was that efforts to achieve greater efficiencies failed to reduce spending 50 percent of the time.

“But this is not a bad thing,” said Mildred Warner, a professor in the planning department, who noted that plowing back fiscal savings into schools often improves student services.

Southold and Greenport both have a strong sense of local identity, tracing their origins as English settlements back to the 1600s. Even so, the two school districts, like many in the East End, have found over the years that cooperation allows them to offer programs that they otherwise could not manage because of their small size.

Since 1983, students from Greenport and Southold have played on the same varsity football team, along with students from the nearby Mattituck-Cutchogue district. The three systems also share a varsity lacrosse team and a U.S. Navy Junior ROTC program. Greenport and Southold share teams in softball and volleyball, as well as advanced high school courses and an annual play.

Still, school administrators remain sensitive to community distinctions. Gamberg, who makes the eight-minute drive between Southold and Greenport on a near-daily basis, honors the districts’ respective colors by wearing red neckties when in Southold and purple ties in Greenport.

“People notice that,” he said.

PSEG | NY State Comptroller Slams PSC on LIPA-PSEG

PSEG's M.O. is to put up huge poles in a hurry, then
say it's so sorry it didn't know about local laws relating
to scarring the landscape. Now it wants a rate increase.

The cover of Friday's Newsday was headlined "NY Comptroller Report: LIPA Reform Hurt Customers".

Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said ratepayers are facing higher bills, less transparency, more debt and less oversight.

DiNapoli's report drew expected responses defending the record of the Long Island Power Authority:

• The NY Department of Public Service (DPS) said later than day that DiNapoli was "simply wrong", citing a three-year rate freeze and "unprecedented" oversight. DPS said the 2013 reform was a "success".
• PSEG, which operates LIPA's power delivery, said reliability, storm response, call center and other measures have improved on its watch. 
• LIPA spokesman Sid Nathan said the Authority had been ordered to bring "the most efficient and lowest-cost service to customers."

Local officials on Long Island sided with DiNapoli:

• Assemb. Fred Thiele (I-Sag Harbor) applauded the report, calling the DPS idea that the reform was a success "ludicrous". "We are facing a substantial rate increase that Long Islanders can't afford. DPS has ... totally lost public confidence."
• Brookhaven Supervisor Edward Romaine said he was glad the comptroller focused scrutiny on the LIPA-PSEG rate hike, calling for "an audit from the state comptroller so we get accurate numbers and an independent review".
• George Maragos, Nassau County's comptroller, agreed with DiNapoli's critique of the PSEG- LIPA contract, including its attempt to stop DiNapoli from scrutinizing contracts. He said: "The agreement between the state and PSEG has to be rethought and more controls put in place."

Jennifer Freeman, a spokeswoman for DiNapoli, said, "We'll let LIPA ratepayers judge whether the latest reforms are working or not."

Comment

When I worked for the NYC Comptroller's Office as Chief Economist in 1992-2006, I testified several times for the Comptroller on behalf of electricity consumers against rate increases for Con Ed and a proposed merger. Our intervention turned out to be on the winning side in all cases. It is good to know that Comptroller DiNapoli is putting the power of his office behind protecting the Long Island consumer of power.

My experience with PSEG on Long Island does not give me confidence that PSEG is being honest with the communities that it has agreed to serve. It has erected huge toxic poles (see photo above) in defiance, or ignorance, of local laws and precedents. Burying the lines would make electric power more storm-resistant and would not mar the landscape or poison the water.

It has a history of claiming not to have known that there were local laws requiring environmental impact statements and local planning filings for new poles, followed by earnest promises that next time it will be more respectful of community laws and regulations.

Communities are faced with the expense of taking down the poles after they have been erected, instead of being offered the option of contributing to burying them, as Southampton agreed to do.

PSEG | Toxic Pole March, N.J.-L.I., NY

PSEG advances on its communities like a wild rhino.

The PSEG PR fiasco in East Hampton raises the question: "Was this PSEG's first rodeo?" No, PSEG has been battling complaints about the poles in New Jersey a year ago and in the middle of Long Island at the beginning of 2014.

Based on its record of the past year, PSEG seems to take the view that its job is solely to expand the electricity-transmission capacity of New Jersey and Long Island, NY and this job gives it the right to override and transcend all existing local rights, regulations or responsibilities.

The tradition-proud leaderships of some villages in New Jersey and New York are stunned by what appears a charging rhinoceros through their grassland. PSEG has:

• Ignored long-standing local environmental and planning processes,
• Provided little or no notice of its arrival to install poles, either to the local governments or to affected individuals,
• Installed super-tall poles (70 feet long, says the NY Times), widely viewed as eyesores,
• Used poles treated with Penta (a "probable carcinogen", according to the US EPA).
• Reduced the attractiveness of properties and therefore their values,
• Added to existing 26 kV lines heavier 69 kV lines with new hazards,
• Perhaps worst of all, proscribed local first-responders from touching the wires, thus impeding their ability to reach victims in emergencies and risking week-long delays in providing emergency services in hurricanes and storms.

Herewith a few pieces from the growing record of community insults.

Ridgewood, NJ - August 2013

Ridgewood Mayor Paul Aronsohn complained of PSEG's installing of 78 new wooden utility poles, 15 feet higher than standard poles, designed to withstand 130-mph winds. The project was halted as complaints mounted. Residents said:

The town needs to do more to rectify this situation. These poles need to be taken out. An eyesore to most, but they are more than just that, they are monstrosities. ... They’re twice the size of our houses. They could fall down, number one; number two, they’re not zoned to be that high, they should only be 35 feet.

In July, a tweeter wrote: "If Ridgewood NJ hates the new poles, let them go w/out power next storm.” PSEG retweeted the message to @PSEGCares and two other accounts with a total of 42,000 followers. Ridgewood Mayor Aronsohn said the retweets  “could be construed as a threat.” (Source: WCBS 880.)

Trenton, NJ - November 2013

PSEG was given a green light by the NJ Board of Public Utilities in Trenton to install the taller, higher-voltage utility poles. The Village of Ridgewood, NJ, had asked for the project to be halted because PSEG did not provide advance notice, was using higher-voltage lines without regard to the increased hazards in an emergency, and would lower property values in a community where the median home price exceeds $700,000).

BPU president Robert Hanna said he had "sympathy" for the citizens and the "aesthetic effect" of the project, but

 I don’t see the health and safety concerns. 

PSEG spokeswoman Karen Johnson said the cost of burying the lines would be too high.

In the wake of the decision, Ridgewood's Mayor said he was disappointed, and reiterated his call for underground lines: "The increasing frequency of destructive storms combined with the increasing demand for electricity suggests that the 'business-as-usual' approach — more poles with higher voltage — must be revisited."

BPU reprimanded PSEG for not giving residents or village officials advance warning about the pending work, and PSEG said they would reform:

• BPU President Hanna observed that during Hurricane Sandy and other storms, NJ utilities had already been criticized for failure to update customers about mass outages. PSEG never secured required road permits from the Village of Ridgewood.

• BPU Commissioner Joseph Fiordaliso said:  "We’re not talking about rocket science here. You can short-circuit a lot of problems by communicating ... to the municipality and to the individuals who are going to be directly affected."

• PSEG spokeswoman Johnson promised to communicate better in a November 2013 email: "This experience has reinforced to us the importance of communications with the communities in which we are building and upgrading facilities. We ... will continue to look at ways to improve the process to better assure that communities understand the rationale for projects and to allay any health and safety concerns in advance."

Port Washington, NY - April 2014

In Port Washington, NY, the new poles rise high above the one-storey businesses along Port Washington Boulevard. The poles are 70 feet high, taller than the old utility poles that averaged 45 feet. PSEG has so far installed 200 of the approximately 220 poles it plans along the five-mile project route from Port Washington to Great Neck. Ten percent of the overhead transmission wire has been strung. Residents said:

• We want to protect the identity of the town. The town should look good, and not ugly like this.
• I’m petrified of this huge pole more than being without electricity.
• It’s horrible. The issue is do it the right way, and give people the chance to pay... before you start putting it up.

Utilities can use public rights of way and may resort to eminent domain. Gerald A. Norlander of New York’s Utility Project, a consumer advocacy group said: “They can take a site and do what they want."  The NY state Department of Public Service can place limits, he said. As a result of community opposition, the Governor’s office has asked DPS to review the project.

The taller poles are stronger and more resilient in storms than the older poles, said David M. Daly, PSEG-Long Island's President and CEO, to a restless town meeting in Port Washington. The lines, he said, could be buried later, but that could cost millions more, and costs would be passed on to customers. He said: "There is no option to stop the project. ... You can do anything you want, as long as you want to pay for it."

But Judi Bosworth, the supervisor of the Town of North Hempstead, which includes the project route, wonders whether Hurricane Sandy recovery funds could be used:

It seems to me that burying the wires is something that could qualify, and we plan to make a strong case for that.

A spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Michael Meenan, said hurricane money could be available if burying the lines would reduce the likelihood of future damage and was cost-efficient. (Source: Kia Gregory, "Utility Poles Generate Heat From Long Island Residents", NY Times, April 22, 2014.)

East Hampton, April 2014

In January, PSEG began installing a 23/33 kV transmission line and 267 of the 70-foot long and larger-diameter utility poles to cover six-and-a-half miles of transmission from East Hampton Village to Amagansett. The project was described as an  "upgrade" to provide "reliable" and "redundant" electricity under storm conditions. 

The project stopped in April when East Hampton Town issued a stop-work order at the Amagansett substation, for which PSEG failed to obtain site-plan approval or a building permit. PSEG filed a temporary restraining order, which was denied. It also filed for a permanent injunction against the town, about which a decision is awaited at the State Supreme Court’s Appellate Division in Brooklyn. East Hampton Town Supervisor Larry Cantwell said:

We wanted to be involved in the energy-alternative process, and not be handed a fait accompli. ... There could have been a better job of presenting this to the public for discussion, and perhaps alternatives could have worked out in advance of this happening.

Mr. Cantwell said East Hampton would not borrow money to bury the lines. He wanted PSEG to give East Hampton the same deal as the Town of Southampton, where PSEG paid for burying the lines by adding a charge to customers’ bills. Some customers have not paid the extra charge and PSEG has sued Southampton Town for the $200,000 it claimed the Town owed. (Source: Kia Gregory, "Utility Poles Generate Heat From Long Island Residents", NY Times, April 22, 2014.)

This story continues here.

NY STATE | Recent Prosperity Originates Downstate

L to R: John Tepper Marlin, Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY12)
 and Tim Bishop (D-NY1). Photo by Alice Tepper Marlin.

Rep. Tim Bishop spoke at an event over the weekend welcoming back Rep. Carolyn Maloney from China.

Bishop told the group in Bridgehampton, NY that he would be facing a challenger backed again by Tea Party bankrollers.

The reason is that NY-1 had one of the weakest majorities for Obama in the last election.

However, if the plan is to dredge up the last campaign's attacks on Bishop for not doing enough for the Suffolk County economy, as both opposition candidates promised, recent new data do not support the idea that Suffolk County has been slipping.

On the contrary, Nassau and Suffolk had New York State's lowest metro area unemployment rate in May and again in June. On a county basis, both Nassau and Suffolk had among the lowest ten unemployment rates of 62 NY State countries, averaging 4.9 percent. By comparison, the Bronx unemployment rate was 10.8 percent and Brooklyn's was 8.3 percent. The NYC unemployment rate fell slightly between June and July. The unemployment rate has increased slightly in the United States in July compared with June, seasonally adjusted, and in NY State outside of NY City. NY State’s unemployment rate was unchanged between June and July, at 6.6 percent, the lowest level since November 2008.

NY State jobs were again in July above 9 million, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning (Table D). This is the third consecutive month of jobs above 9 million, and the 20th consecutive month of jobs growth. The state added 17,300 private-sector jobs. Total private-sector jobs in NY State are at an all-time high of more than 7.6 million.  Jobs in NY State have grown in 38 of the past 43 months

Private-sector jobs have continued to grow in July 2014 compared with the same month in 2013:

United States                          +2.2%
New York State                      +1.9%
Downstate NY (10-co. area)    +2.4%
New York City                         +3.0%
Suburban Counties                 +1.2%
Nassau-Suffolk                       +1.6%
Upstate NY (52-co. area)        +0.9%

In the 10-county Downstate region, private-sector jobs grew by 2.4% over the past year. Downstate’s private-sector job growth was most rapid in New York City (+3.0 percent) and in Nassau-Suffolk (+1.6 percent).

In the 52-county Upstate region, private-sector jobs grew 0.9 percent over the past year. Private-sector job growth occurred in both the region’s metro areas (+1.0 percent) and in counties outside of metro areas (+0.3 percent). One metro area in the state lost private sector jobs between July 2013 and July 2014, i.e., Syracuse (-1.2 percent).

Rep. Bishop has been a major advocate for education in the Congress, and (private) educational and health services are the fastest-growing sector in NY State.

NY State Major Industry Sectors that Gained Jobs
 Growth between July 2013 and July 2014 (details here):
Educational & Health Services*       +53,400
Professional & Business Services     +30,600
Trade, Transportation & Utilities        +28,200
Leisure & Hospitality                         +22,200
Construction                                     +8,400
Other Services                                  +5,800
Financial Activities                                +500
Information                                           +400
Natural Resources & Mining                 +300
*Educational and health services are in the private sector.

A Tea Party opponent will have trouble making the argument that Rep. Bishop has been allowing government employment to get out of control in NY State, since government jobs in NY State fell during the year ending July 2014.

Major Sectors that Lost Jobs (Decline between July 2013 and July 2014)
Manufacturing                                     -9,200
Government**                                     -6,200
**Government jobs include public education and public health services.

NYC METRO | Lowest Jobless on Long Island, Less Than 5%

Long Island has the lowest May unemployment rate of metro
divisions in the NYC metro area. Long Island is Nassau
 + Suffolk counties. This is not a BLS map - for BLS
definitions of metro areas, see www.bls.gov release.

The Long Island metro division, which combines Nassau and Suffolk Counties, again has a lower unemployment rate than the other metro divisions within the NYC metro area.

This is according to unemployment numbers for May just released by the BLS.

The Long Island economy will be closely watched during the next three months because of strong challenges in the Long Island Congressional elections in November.

For the entire metro NYC area, the May unemployment rate is 6.7 percent, which is higher than New York State's 6.4 percent. However, relative to May 2013, the NYC metro area improved by 1.2 percentage points, faster than NY State's 0.9 percentage-point improvement.

(The numbers are not seasonally adjusted. To calculate changes, the May figures must be compared with the same month one year earlier to minimize seasonal effects.)

Within the NYC metro area, Long Island was a star on the unemployment front. It not only had the lowest unemployment rate of the four metro divisions within the NYC metro area, it was the only one with May unemployment below 6 percent, coming in at 4.9 percent. In April, Long Island was also a full percentage point below the other metro divisions within the NYC metro area.

However, relative to a year earlier, the two Northern New Jersey metro divisions saw their unemployment rates fall faster (by 1.6 percentage points) than Long Island (1.2 percentage points) or the NYC metro division (1.1 percentage points).

METROS | Real GDP 2012 Growth 2.5%

Bureau of Economic Analysis map out today shows healthy real-GDP growth in metro areas in 2012. The average of all U.S. metros was 2.5 percent.

Urban economists, politicians and economic consultants watch regional data closely for competitive reasons.

Growth rates provide clues as to the success or failure of regional economic and tax policies.

Metro growth was especially strong (dark and light blue) in in Texas, the Midwest and Northwest, and was weak (brown and beige) in much of upstate New York and New England, Southwest and western Florida.

Growth in the NYC area, which includes Long Island and Northern New Jersey, is middle of the road, about 2 percent.

The map shows the uneven nature of economic growth in the United States. Decline and growth may be close neighbors. California was mixed. Also Florida - some parts, notably Greater Miami, grew rapidly while other metro areas in the state's northwest declined, while mid-Florida grew moderately.

GDP data are a better measure of a local economy than job numbers (unemployment, payroll job growth), but they take much longer to see the light of day. Job numbers for large metro areas are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics within a month after they are collected. The good news this year is that the BEA is back to getting out the metro GDP data within nine months after the end of the year for which they are reporting. They had slipped to taking more than 12 months. Data delayed are data denied.

For the whole story and a high-resolution map, go to the release on the BEA website.

JOBS | Suffolk County (Postscript Feb. 3, 2016)

August 18, 2012–Rep. Tim Bishop's challenger has sent out a glossy flyer repeating in bold face the canard that "Long Island has lost more than 30,000 jobs since Tim Bishop became the Congressman". This is weaker than saying he "chased away" the jobs. But it is still an error and unfair. It remains on Mr. Altschuler's website on August 18. (Postscript Feb. 3, 2016: It has since been removed.)

On August 6 I sent a second letter to the East Hampton Star noting the continued error. The letter was published on August 16.

Five Pinocchios

Springs, August 6, 2012

To The Star: On June 28, I wrote protesting the economic data coming from the Altschuler campaign, which said that Congressman Bishop has “chased away thousands of jobs” from Long Island. I noted that during the past year Long Island has in fact gained 12,000 payroll jobs. 
  
So now I see a press release dated today from this campaign. It now takes a longer view. It says that “Long Island has lost more than 30,000 jobs since Tim Bishop became the Congressman.” 
  
There was a time at the end of the George W. Bush presidency, when the deregulated financial system was shedding jobs. But this is 2012. I checked the record. The latest number for payroll jobs on Long Island is June 2012, 1,275,000 jobs. This is from the New York Department of Labor. Subtract the base of 1,238,200 in June 2002, when Congressman Bishop was first elected.

The difference is a 36,800-job gain, while Congressman Bishop’s opponent reports a 30,000-job loss. That’s a gap of 66,800 jobs. 

As the late great Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan said, “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” Or, he might have added, his or her own arithmetic. 
  
One can understand a rounding error or a seasonal adjustment mistake. But when the direction of the data is reversed for a number that has already been publicly questioned, it rises to a reckless disregard for facts. If the previous error deserves two Pinocchios, this one deserves five.
JOHN TEPPER MARLIN

The Altschuler campaign seems have gotten the message. The references to the 30,000 loss of jobs has been deleted in several places, as it should be–but not in every place. It's good that he has removed some of the erroneous statements. But what would an ethical person do to make restitution for the wrong facts in all the flyers that were sent out? How about a public admission that the statement was wrong?

Meanwhile, a new claim is being made on the website (Postscript Feb. 3, 2016: This site has been taken down).

Nearly 40,000 more people on Long Island are unemployed today than they were when Tim Bishop was sworn into Congress almost ten years ago.

This is a very different statement. It's now about the number of unemployed people and not about the number of jobs. This shifts the focus from the comprehensive payroll jobs report that the BLS collects from 400,000 employers, to the Current Population Survey.  Mr. Altschuler might not have cited the number of unemployed in the way he did if he knew these five facts about the survey: 

1. It's a small sample. A national sample of about one in every 1,250 households is conducted once a month to determine the number of employed persons and the number of unemployed and other characteristics of each household.  In the case of New York State, the monthly sample size is 3,730 households out of a population of 19.5 million. For Long Island, it implies a sample size of about 544 and for Suffolk County alone of 287.
2. Unemployment is an active mode. An interviewer contacts the head of household and finds out which members of the household are working and how many are not working but are actively seeking work.People are classified as unemployed if they are available for work and have taken specific actions during the previous four weeks to look for work. So when the number of unemployed goes up it could mean something positive, i.e., a greater confidence in the future of the economy, leading those who are without work to take active steps to apply for a position.
3. The BLS is properly nervous about how the data will be used. The original purpose of the Current Population Survey is to produce a national unemployment rate. The latest metro numbers (for June) are marked  preliminary. The user is warned that the numbers are "controlled to statewide totals" and inputs may be "revised" and "re-estimated". Because of the small sample at the county level, the data are not seasonally adjusted. 
4. Employed people may have more than one job. That is one way that the job numbers and the civilian employment numbers can be reconciled.
5. The number of unemployed needs to be related to county population and employment growth. Of the 100,000 growth in Long Island's population during the 11 years following the 2000 Census, approximately 10,000 were in Nassau County and 90,000 were in Suffolk. The First District of New York that Mr. Altschuler aspires to represent is in the eastern end of Suffolk County. 

Stay tuned.