COVID-19 STATUS | U.S. Summary in One Table

April 5, 2020—The largest number of Americans have been suffering from the COVID-19 virus in eight states and the District of Columbia. As of April 4, the states were, in order of death rates: New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan, Connecticut, Washington, Vermont, Massachusetts. Their death rates all exceed the national average death rate to date of 2.6 per 100,000 population. The list of the worst-hit states underscores the role of social interaction in spreading the disease. New York City was the first big U.S. city to suffer from the pandemic, and its hospitals have quickly been overwhelmed by its spread. Governor Andrew Cuomo provides a daily briefing on his handling of the public health crisis.

Confirmed Cases and Deaths

Two main measures are being used to gauge the progress of the disease: confirmed cases and deaths. Both measures have built-in problems.

Confirmed cases provide an earlier estimate of the extent of the spread of the disease than deaths. It can take a week or more for symptoms to appear, and then it may take another week or more for recovery. Patients can be hospitalized for weeks before recovering or succumbing to the disease.

However, confirmed cases depend on the availability of testing equipment and personnel, and in the early days of the pandemic in the United States tests were in short supply.  

For this reason, a low rate of cases to population may simply mean that fewer people are being tested in a state rather than that the disease is not spreading in a state. For the same reason, the case fatality rate is a less reliable number than deaths relative to population.

Deaths by cause would seem to be a simple enough number to keep track of. In a democracy it is hard to hide a dead body for long. Deaths are closely observed and recorded and whistleblowers historically have not been, as in dictatorships, punished for speaking out. A cause of death must be listed. The course of the COVID-19 disease is easy enough to spot. There are in fact some problems with the data, but let's look first at the reported numbers.

New York State tops the ranked list of deaths per 100,000 population, with 18.3 recorded as of today. Within New York State, the most densely populated counties are suffering the most.

New Jersey and Louisiana both have half the severity of New York State, about 9 per 100,000. Michigan and Connecticut are 5 per 100,000. These numbers are rising daily.

As a comparison, the average number of deaths in the United States from traffic fatalities in a year is 12.4 per 100,000. (Note that the traffic fatalities number is the sum of events happening over a year's time, whereas we have only three months of pandemic data.) 

The overall U.S. death rate to date from the coronavirus is 2.6 per 100,000 population.

Issues with Cause of Death Data

Two kinds of issues with the data on death rates are emerging: 

• Underreporting of COVID-19 deaths. Some jurisdictions require that a test for the presence of the virus have been conducted in order to list it as a cause of death. So the absence of testing kits both lowers the number of cases and the number of deaths.
• Lack of data about victims. Even when the deaths are properly recorded, the hospitals or doctors signing the death certificates may be so pressed for time or staff that they are not recording demographic data about the victims. Ibram X. Kendi, in “Why Don’t We Know Who the Coronavirus Victims Are?” The Atlantic, April 1, 2020, suggests that African Americans are disproportionately the victims, but in many states we don't know. He asks why other states don't report this information—the problems including multiple illnesses and the lack of a test to prove that the victim had the virus; the coroner may be insisting on such proof (here is the Suffolk County, NY procedure for reporting a death). 

Who Are the Victims?

The evidence so far is that more blacks are victims than their proportion of the population, and men are much more likely to be victims than women.

Kendi cites data showing that African Americans are 14.6 percentof the Illinois population, but are 28 percent of confirmed cases of the coronavirus (Latinos, however, are a smaller percentage of deaths than in the population). An even more striking disparity has occurred in Milwaukee, where blacks account for 26 percent of the population but are half of the reported cases and 81 percent of deaths. In Michigan, blacks are 14 percent of the population but 41 percent of the victims.

Support for Masks, Shutdown

Support has been growing for closing meeting places like restaurants and wearing face masks in public. The support for these actions has bubbled up from the states rather than having been led from Washington. The White House at first did not give credence to the pandemic's arrival in the United States and then expressed concern about interfering with economic activity to slow the progress of the disease.

Among the top nine victims of the virus, blue states predominate. Some of the governors of these states have clashed with the President on getting support in the form of supplies, equipment or a national shutdown or mask-wearing policy. 

Democratic New York City and State, with more than 18 deaths per 100,000 population in the state, have supported closing public meeting places. Four other states and D.C. have Democratic leadership. These leaders of these states were early in supporting closing public places until the apex of the disease has passed and in calling for an immediate end to tariffs on medical supplies from China.

The other three states (Louisiana, Vermont and Massachusetts) are purple. Two have Republican governors and one has a Republican senator. Among the next nine states, ranked by death rates, three are red states and two are purple (Colorado and Pennsylvania).

In states with Republican or mixed party leadership, leaders have often appeared to wait for direction from the White House. This has sometimes led to disagreement between Republican Governors and Democratic Mayors over delays in locking down or advice on social distancing.

Note on Data: Confirmed cases and deaths by state are as of April 4, 2020 from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus website. A convenient tabular form of the JHU data was posted by The Guardian later on the same day. Total number of U.S. cases and deaths added by JT Marlin. Population data are from the U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (NST-EST2019-01), December 2019. The Census Bureau documents its estimation methods. Calculations of cases/population, deaths per 100,000 population and case fatality rates by JT Marlin.

NEW JERSEY | Huge Fire in North Bergen

View from New York City, across from 23rd Street. Photo © JT Marlin.

A four-alarm fire in North Bergen has been brought under control, say fire officials, but the smoke is still intense. 

The fire broke out in the Kennedy Furniture Store to the west of Hoboken.

Latest photo: 12:50 pm.

Same view, 12:50 pm. Looking west. Gehry building south at left, London
Terrace north at right. High Line runs north-south. Photo © JT Marlin.

JOBS | Metro NY and NJ

September data on Metro Area non-farm jobs shows an increase of 130,500 jobs in the Greater New York area, which includes all of Long Island. This is the best performance of metro areas in New York State. In fact, jobs grew substantially in New York State only in the Hudson River corridor from New York City through Kingston to Albany.

Metropolitan area	State	Sept. 2013  (‘000)	Sept. 2014(p) (‘000)	Change (‘000)	Change (%)
Trenton-Ewing, NJ	New Jersey	247.2	252.0	4.8	1.9
Ocean City, NJ	New Jersey	46.8	47.2	0.4	0.9
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ	New Jersey	57.3	57.8	0.5	0.9
Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ	New Jersey	138.7	128.7	-10.0	-7.2
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA	New York	8,710.1	8,840.6	130.5	1.5
Kingston, NY	New York	60.3	60.8	0.5	0.8
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY	New York	448.2	451.3	3.1	0.7
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY	New York	551.9	554.5	2.6	0.5
Elmira, NY	New York	38.7	38.8	0.1	0.3
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY	New York	254.0	254.4	0.4	0.2
Ithaca, NY	New York	70.4	70.5	0.1	0.1
Rochester, NY	New York	515.7	516.2	0.5	0.1
Binghamton, NY	New York	106.3	106.1	-0.2	-0.2
Glens Falls, NY	New York	55.0	54.8	-0.2	-0.4
Syracuse, NY	New York	317.3	316.1	-1.2	-0.4
Utica-Rome, NY	New York	128.0	127.3	-0.7	-0.5

Source: BLS Metro Areas report, October 29, 2014.

In New Jersey, the state capital, as in New York State, gained jobs but growth was weaker in the rest of the state. Atlantic City remains in economic crisis, losing 7.2 percent of its jobs, 10,000 of them, in the year ending September 2014.

For cities, density remains destiny. The bigger cities survive economic downturns best, and so do state capitals, where the state taxes go.

PSEG | Long Island Utility 2.0 Plan (Comments)

We signed up to speak at the Hearing in East Hampton that started at 5 pm, but were not able to wait beyond 8 pm. We sent the following comments to the Secretary of the NY State Department of Public Services.

COMMENTS OF DR. JOHN TEPPER MARLIN AND MRS. ALICE TEPPER MARLIN

ON PSEG LONG ISLAND UTILITY 2.0 PLAN, DPS MATTER NUMBER 14-01299

We have reviewed the PSEG Long Island Utility 2.0 Plan as posted July 1, 2014. Our overall comment is that we find nothing in the plan about the following important topics:

• The impact of the energy generation plans on local communities on Long Island,
  
• Cooperation with local officials in the implementation of the plans,
  
• Respect for local environmental and land use provisions.

These omissions are especially serious in light of PSEG's record during the past year in expanding the electricity-transmission capacity of New Jersey and Long Island, NY. It does not seem to have given any weight in this task to local rights, regulations or responsibilities, and the risks to safety that its expansion creates.

The tradition-proud leaderships of some villages in New Jersey and New York are shocked by the way PSEG has recently:

• Ignored long-standing local environmental and planning processes,
• Provided little or no notice to the either local governments or affected individuals, before installing poles
• Installed super-tall poles (70 feet long, says the NY Times), widely viewed as eyesores, that  have been treated with a toxic chemical, Penta or PCP (Pentachlorophenol) an organochlorine compound primarily used for preservation of wooden utility poles. There are no permissible residential uses. The manufacturer says it may be fatal if inhaled or absorbed through skin, harmful if swallowed, and irritating to skin, eye and respiratory tract. It can cause cardiovascular and other effects. PSEG workers who put in the poles are exposed to Penta through inhalation and skin contact. Residents are exposed through contact with ground around the wood, or drinking water contaminated by Penta through leakage into wells. U.S. EPA classifies Penta as a "probable carcinogen".
• Reduced the attractiveness of properties and therefore their values,
• Added to existing 26 kV (kilovolt) lines substantially heavier 69 kV lines above ground, posing new storm hazards,
• Has proscribed local first responders from removing fallen wires, which run in front of the Emergency Services Building in East Hampton. This may halt the ability of local first responders to reach victims in emergencies, with the possibility of long delays in providing emergency services in hurricanes and storms.

Herewith a few notes about three communities from the growing recent record of insults to community planning and regulations - Ridgewood, NJ; Port Washington, NY; and East Hampton, NY.

Ridgewood, NJ (August-November 2013). Ridgewood Mayor Paul Aronsohn complained of PSEG's installing 78 new wooden utility poles, 15 feet higher than standard poles. Residents were opposed to the height of the poles and the new hazards and the project was halted. In July, a tweeter wrote: "If Ridgewood NJ hates the new poles, let them go w/out power next storm.” PSEG retweeted the message to 42,000 followers at @PSEGCares and other accounts. Ridgewood Mayor Aronsohn said the retweets “could be construed as a threat.” (Source: WCBS 880.)

Ridgewood's Mayor went to the NJ Board of Public Utilities (NJ BPU) in Trenton to stop the taller, higher-voltage utility poles. He noted that PSEG did not provide advance notice, was using higher-voltage lines without regard to the increased hazards in an emergency, and the poles would lower property values in a community where the median home price exceeds $700,000.

The bad news in November for Ridgewood was that NJ BPU ruled against Ridgewood. Its president, Robert Hanna, said he had "sympathy" for the citizens and the "aesthetic effect" of the project. But he didn't see the health and safety concerns.  Ridgewood's Mayor reiterated his call for underground lines:

The increasing frequency of destructive storms combined with the increasing demand for electricity suggests that the 'business-as-usual' approach — more poles with higher voltage — must be revisited.

The good news for Ridgewood was that NJ BPU agreed with the Village that PSEG had not given residents or village officials proper advance warning about the pending work:

• Board of Public Utilities President Hanna observed that during Hurricane Sandy and other storms, NJ utilities had already been criticized for failure to update customers about mass outages. 
• BPU noted that PSEG never secured required road permits from the Village of Ridgewood.
• BPU Commissioner Joseph Fiordaliso said:

We’re not talking about rocket science here. You can short-circuit a lot of problems by communicating ... to the municipality and to the individuals who are going to be directly affected.

PSEG spokeswoman Karen Johnson, seemingly chastened, promised to communicate better in a November 2013 email:

This experience has reinforced to us the importance of communications with the communities in which we are building and upgrading facilities. We ... will continue to look at ways to improve the process to better assure that communities understand the rationale for projects and to allay any health and safety concerns in advance.

Port Washington, NY (April 2014).  PSEG installed 200 of the approximately 220 70-foot poles it planned along the five-mile project route to Great Neck. Ten percent of the overhead transmission wire was strung. Then a hearing was held. Residents reacted as follows:

• We want to protect the identity of the town. The town should look good, and not ugly like this.
• I’m petrified of this huge pole more than being without electricity.
• It’s horrible. The issue is do it the right way, and give people the chance to pay... before you start putting it up

David Daly, PSEG-Long Island's president and CEO, told Port Washington that "There is no option to stop the project," and that the lines could be buried later, but the cost of millions more would be passed on to customers, "as long as you want to pay for it." Utilities can "do what they want", said Gerald A. Norlander of New York’s Utility Project, a consumer group. However, he said, the NY State Department of Public Service can place limits on them. As a result of community opposition, Governor Andrew Cuomo's office has asked the Department of Public Service to review the PSEG-Long Island project.

Judi Bosworth, the supervisor of the Town of North Hempstead, which includes the project route, wonders whether Hurricane Sandy recovery funds could be used: "It seems to me that burying the wires is something that could qualify, and we plan to make a strong case for that." Michael Meenan of the Federal Emergency Management Agency said hurricane money could be available if burying the lines would reduce the likelihood of future damage and was cost-efficient. 

East Hampton, April 2014.   In January, PSEG began installing 267 of the 70-foot-long utility poles to cover six-and-a-half miles of transmission from East Hampton Village to Amagansett. The project halted in April when East Hampton Town issued a stop-work order at the Amagansett substation. PSEG failed to obtain site-plan approval or a building permit. PSEG filed a temporary restraining order, which was denied. It also filed for a permanent injunction against the town - decision still awaited at the State Supreme Court’s Appellate Division in Brooklyn. 

East Hampton Town Supervisor Larry Cantwell said East Hampton would not borrow money to bury the lines, but wanted PSEG to give East Hampton the same deal as the Town of Southampton, where PSEG paid for burying 23/33 kV transmission lines by adding a charge to customers’ bills. Cantwell said:

We wanted to be involved in the energy-alternative process, and not be handed a fait accompli. ... There could have been a better job of presenting this to the public for discussion, and perhaps alternatives could have worked out in advance of this happening.

Some Southampton customers have not paid the extra charge and PSEG has sued Southampton Town for the $200,000 in allegedly unpaid charges. 

The Utility 2.0 Plan

East Hampton residents, such as Debra Foster, have organized a "Save East Hampton" group around the “Bury the Lines” issue. We attended the hearing because of her work bringing it to our attention. Her groups entirely right that the Utility 2.0 Plan does not incorporate the promise made by PSEG after the BPU reprimand in 2013. It should do so and PSEG should respect the promise.

This is not our first rodeo. We were at the 820 mW Shoreham plant in the 1980s, protesting the folly of nuclear power in an area where there was no safe escape route in the event of an emergency and no safe exit for nuclear waste. The venerable Long Island Lighting Company (LILCO) was founded in 1911 by Ellis Phillips, an engineer. LILCO spent 20 years building the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant, but never gave enough credence to community opposition. Ultimately, public pressure brought Shoreham and LILCO to an end in 1989, under Governor Mario Cuomo. The $5.5 billion plant was eventually dismantled before it ever operated.

So it should not be an impossible dream for East Hampton residents to take down all of the 267 poles and bury the lines. The problem is that LIPA and the Governor make environmental commitments to customers that PSEG then mocks. East Hampton has been celebrated in the Governor's Comprehensive Energy Vision as a leader in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. The Town should be treated like a leader.

PSEG's Utility 2.0 plan seems to be moving PSEG toward building seven new fossil-fuel power plants on Eastern Long Island, is inconsistent with decisions by local residents. East Hampton has pledged itself to be 100 percent independent of fossil fuel by 2020, and 100 percent dependent instead on renewable energy - solar, wind, geothermal, batteries. Utility 2.0 should be redesigned to be consistent with East Hampton Town's own plans. 

We urge FEMA to finance the removal of the poles and burial of the transmission wires, and we ask PSEG and the Town and other levels of government to participate in a joint effort to increase public safety and save East Hampton by burying electric, telephone and cable wires.

PSEG | Toxic Pole March, N.J.-L.I., NY

PSEG advances on its communities like a wild rhino.

The PSEG PR fiasco in East Hampton raises the question: "Was this PSEG's first rodeo?" No, PSEG has been battling complaints about the poles in New Jersey a year ago and in the middle of Long Island at the beginning of 2014.

Based on its record of the past year, PSEG seems to take the view that its job is solely to expand the electricity-transmission capacity of New Jersey and Long Island, NY and this job gives it the right to override and transcend all existing local rights, regulations or responsibilities.

The tradition-proud leaderships of some villages in New Jersey and New York are stunned by what appears a charging rhinoceros through their grassland. PSEG has:

• Ignored long-standing local environmental and planning processes,
• Provided little or no notice of its arrival to install poles, either to the local governments or to affected individuals,
• Installed super-tall poles (70 feet long, says the NY Times), widely viewed as eyesores,
• Used poles treated with Penta (a "probable carcinogen", according to the US EPA).
• Reduced the attractiveness of properties and therefore their values,
• Added to existing 26 kV lines heavier 69 kV lines with new hazards,
• Perhaps worst of all, proscribed local first-responders from touching the wires, thus impeding their ability to reach victims in emergencies and risking week-long delays in providing emergency services in hurricanes and storms.

Herewith a few pieces from the growing record of community insults.

Ridgewood, NJ - August 2013

Ridgewood Mayor Paul Aronsohn complained of PSEG's installing of 78 new wooden utility poles, 15 feet higher than standard poles, designed to withstand 130-mph winds. The project was halted as complaints mounted. Residents said:

The town needs to do more to rectify this situation. These poles need to be taken out. An eyesore to most, but they are more than just that, they are monstrosities. ... They’re twice the size of our houses. They could fall down, number one; number two, they’re not zoned to be that high, they should only be 35 feet.

In July, a tweeter wrote: "If Ridgewood NJ hates the new poles, let them go w/out power next storm.” PSEG retweeted the message to @PSEGCares and two other accounts with a total of 42,000 followers. Ridgewood Mayor Aronsohn said the retweets  “could be construed as a threat.” (Source: WCBS 880.)

Trenton, NJ - November 2013

PSEG was given a green light by the NJ Board of Public Utilities in Trenton to install the taller, higher-voltage utility poles. The Village of Ridgewood, NJ, had asked for the project to be halted because PSEG did not provide advance notice, was using higher-voltage lines without regard to the increased hazards in an emergency, and would lower property values in a community where the median home price exceeds $700,000).

BPU president Robert Hanna said he had "sympathy" for the citizens and the "aesthetic effect" of the project, but

 I don’t see the health and safety concerns. 

PSEG spokeswoman Karen Johnson said the cost of burying the lines would be too high.

In the wake of the decision, Ridgewood's Mayor said he was disappointed, and reiterated his call for underground lines: "The increasing frequency of destructive storms combined with the increasing demand for electricity suggests that the 'business-as-usual' approach — more poles with higher voltage — must be revisited."

BPU reprimanded PSEG for not giving residents or village officials advance warning about the pending work, and PSEG said they would reform:

• BPU President Hanna observed that during Hurricane Sandy and other storms, NJ utilities had already been criticized for failure to update customers about mass outages. PSEG never secured required road permits from the Village of Ridgewood.

• BPU Commissioner Joseph Fiordaliso said:  "We’re not talking about rocket science here. You can short-circuit a lot of problems by communicating ... to the municipality and to the individuals who are going to be directly affected."

• PSEG spokeswoman Johnson promised to communicate better in a November 2013 email: "This experience has reinforced to us the importance of communications with the communities in which we are building and upgrading facilities. We ... will continue to look at ways to improve the process to better assure that communities understand the rationale for projects and to allay any health and safety concerns in advance."

Port Washington, NY - April 2014

In Port Washington, NY, the new poles rise high above the one-storey businesses along Port Washington Boulevard. The poles are 70 feet high, taller than the old utility poles that averaged 45 feet. PSEG has so far installed 200 of the approximately 220 poles it plans along the five-mile project route from Port Washington to Great Neck. Ten percent of the overhead transmission wire has been strung. Residents said:

• We want to protect the identity of the town. The town should look good, and not ugly like this.
• I’m petrified of this huge pole more than being without electricity.
• It’s horrible. The issue is do it the right way, and give people the chance to pay... before you start putting it up.

Utilities can use public rights of way and may resort to eminent domain. Gerald A. Norlander of New York’s Utility Project, a consumer advocacy group said: “They can take a site and do what they want."  The NY state Department of Public Service can place limits, he said. As a result of community opposition, the Governor’s office has asked DPS to review the project.

The taller poles are stronger and more resilient in storms than the older poles, said David M. Daly, PSEG-Long Island's President and CEO, to a restless town meeting in Port Washington. The lines, he said, could be buried later, but that could cost millions more, and costs would be passed on to customers. He said: "There is no option to stop the project. ... You can do anything you want, as long as you want to pay for it."

But Judi Bosworth, the supervisor of the Town of North Hempstead, which includes the project route, wonders whether Hurricane Sandy recovery funds could be used:

It seems to me that burying the wires is something that could qualify, and we plan to make a strong case for that.

A spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Michael Meenan, said hurricane money could be available if burying the lines would reduce the likelihood of future damage and was cost-efficient. (Source: Kia Gregory, "Utility Poles Generate Heat From Long Island Residents", NY Times, April 22, 2014.)

East Hampton, April 2014

In January, PSEG began installing a 23/33 kV transmission line and 267 of the 70-foot long and larger-diameter utility poles to cover six-and-a-half miles of transmission from East Hampton Village to Amagansett. The project was described as an  "upgrade" to provide "reliable" and "redundant" electricity under storm conditions. 

The project stopped in April when East Hampton Town issued a stop-work order at the Amagansett substation, for which PSEG failed to obtain site-plan approval or a building permit. PSEG filed a temporary restraining order, which was denied. It also filed for a permanent injunction against the town, about which a decision is awaited at the State Supreme Court’s Appellate Division in Brooklyn. East Hampton Town Supervisor Larry Cantwell said:

We wanted to be involved in the energy-alternative process, and not be handed a fait accompli. ... There could have been a better job of presenting this to the public for discussion, and perhaps alternatives could have worked out in advance of this happening.

Mr. Cantwell said East Hampton would not borrow money to bury the lines. He wanted PSEG to give East Hampton the same deal as the Town of Southampton, where PSEG paid for burying the lines by adding a charge to customers’ bills. Some customers have not paid the extra charge and PSEG has sued Southampton Town for the $200,000 it claimed the Town owed. (Source: Kia Gregory, "Utility Poles Generate Heat From Long Island Residents", NY Times, April 22, 2014.)

This story continues here.

EC POLICY | Minimum-Wage Facts Change Opinions

The U.S. minimum wage has been
$7.25 per hour since 2009. President
Obama wants to raise it to $10.10.

Yesterday I posted some news about initiatives to promote a living wage and to calculate what such a wage is in different places.

That prompted a few comments about the impact of imposing a minimum wage. Won't that put many workers out of their jobs?

Economists’ views on this topic have changed over the years, as one would hope, in the face of research that contradicts the conventional view. The neoclassical supply-and-demand curve for labor helped guide economists in polls to agree with the idea that a minimum wage would perversely reduce the number of workers that employers would hire and therefore would increase poverty. The preferred alternative approach was a government-guaranteed minimum income.

However, David Card and Alan B. Krueger challenged this orthodoxy and have brought many of their  economist colleagues along with them. They used a higher minimum wage in New Jersey in 1992 to look at the impact of a minimum wage on fast-food chains in New Jersey compared with fast-food chains across the state line, not affected by the higher minimum wage.

They found that since all of the chains in New Jersey had to adhere to the same rise in the minimum wage, the net impact of the minimum wage on their employment was zero. However, to cover the higher cost of labor, the chains in New Jersey raised their prices by an average of 3 percent - not something that would be very noticeable or would induce consumers to travel to another state. They found similar results for California’s minimum wage increase in 1988 and the Federal minimum wage increase in 1990-91.

(For more extensive summaries of the cumulative evidence on the minimum wage, go to a recent report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. For a summary edited by people on different sides of the issue, go to the wikipedia entry on the minimum wage.)

The debate is not over. My friend Michael Phillips in California argues that the chain-store situation differs from that of small delis. Exemptions, or delayed enforcement, for small businesses might be reasonable.

But meanwhile, the popular debate has been reframed by evidence of rising levels of income and wealth inequality in the United States, leading to a closer look at both ends of pay scales. A flood of information in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 showing compensation out of line with executive performance have been stirring up public sentiments in the same way that they were by the Pecora Committee in 1933. These sentiments have led to the news yesterday that more than 75 percent of shares were voted against a generous Chipotle executive-compensation package.

The international front offers evidence that countries with more equal incomes are performing better. Europe’s economic stalwart, Germany, doesn't have wide disparities of earnings, and will have a minimum wage of $11.75/hour in 2015. Germany exempts from the minimum wage minors, interns, trainees, long-term unemployed people for their first six months at work and, at least for the first two years, temporary or seasonal workers.

Denmark, which has the most equal incomes of the OECD countries, has strong unions that have negotiated a minimum wage of $20/hour. It also rates as the happiest country in the world, according to the U.N. in 2013. It has a lower unemployment rate and a higher labor force participation rate than the United States.

P.S. The CityEconomist blogsite just clicked over 78,000 page views. Thank you for reading.

SANDY | NJ Payout–Slow and Opaque

Governor of NJ comforts Sandy victim.

During my half-year stint as Chief Economist at the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice in Newark, I wrote a report tracking the payout of the public and private funds set aside for victims of Sandy.

Sandy caused damage equal to 5.8 percent of the NJ economy (gross product), more than twice its 2.8 percent share of the New York economy.

The report showed, overall, that the hardest-hit were the poor and near-poor, who were under-insured and under-prepared for the storm. If they had assets, they lost a major part of them. If they did not have assets, they died or suffered trying to stay alive.

In my report I compared New Jersey's response to that of New York. Most of the comparisons were not favorable to New Jersey, which was slower to pay out money to victims and was less transparent about how donations and Federal aid was being spent. In June I moved on to serve as chief economist to the Warrior Family Foundation.

This morning I read in The New York Times a story by Kate Zernike that reports: "Most U.S. Hurricane Aid Still Undistributed in New Jersey" (p. 28):

[Last month New Jersey] had distributed only about a quarter of the $1.2 billion that the federal government had awarded to help New Jersey homeowners and renters recover from the storm. [In addition, there were] complaints about heavy bureaucracy and a lack of transparency.
State officials responded that] the federal housing department  required several layers of additional approval... to prevent the kind of fraud that followed Hurricane Katrina.

METROS | Real GDP 2012 Growth 2.5%

Bureau of Economic Analysis map out today shows healthy real-GDP growth in metro areas in 2012. The average of all U.S. metros was 2.5 percent.

Urban economists, politicians and economic consultants watch regional data closely for competitive reasons.

Growth rates provide clues as to the success or failure of regional economic and tax policies.

Metro growth was especially strong (dark and light blue) in in Texas, the Midwest and Northwest, and was weak (brown and beige) in much of upstate New York and New England, Southwest and western Florida.

Growth in the NYC area, which includes Long Island and Northern New Jersey, is middle of the road, about 2 percent.

The map shows the uneven nature of economic growth in the United States. Decline and growth may be close neighbors. California was mixed. Also Florida - some parts, notably Greater Miami, grew rapidly while other metro areas in the state's northwest declined, while mid-Florida grew moderately.

GDP data are a better measure of a local economy than job numbers (unemployment, payroll job growth), but they take much longer to see the light of day. Job numbers for large metro areas are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics within a month after they are collected. The good news this year is that the BEA is back to getting out the metro GDP data within nine months after the end of the year for which they are reporting. They had slipped to taking more than 12 months. Data delayed are data denied.

For the whole story and a high-resolution map, go to the release on the BEA website.

BAN THE BOX | Minor Arrests as Barriers to Jobs

Cornell William Brooks, Esq., President and CEO, NJISJ, 

Newark, N.J. [Now President of NAACP]

Last year I worked for six months in Newark, NJ as Chief Economist for the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice, which is headed by attorney Cornell William Brooks, who used to work in Washington for the Department of Justice.

One of the projects of the NJISJ that I spent some time on was preparing background data to examine the potential impact of a proposed New Jersey law nicknamed "Ban the Box".

This is a bill to prevent job applicants from being given no chance of competing on their qualifications because of the inclusion of a box on employment applications that asks about arrests or convictions.

In practice, checking this box can mean that applicants are disqualified immediately from further consideration.

The NJISJ knows that eliminating the box is not going to help someone who is applying for a job in sensitive areas where stealing or sexual offenses would automatically raise a red flag. The objective is to stop the automatic disqualification of applicants whose offenses may have been

• many years earlier, or were 
• minor incidents of disorderly conduct connected with a sports event or protest, or were 
• group arrests in a  "stop and frisk" situation, or were for 
• convictions for offenses like possession of small amounts of marijuana that would today likely be dismissed.

For the City of Newark, it is an economic issue, because the high unemployment rate in parts of the city means that many youths have a choice between no work and work that borders on, or crosses over, to illegality. The economic health of the city depends on finding work for people who have an arrest or conviction record that is a barrier to employment. "Ban the Box" is an attempt to break this vicious circle.

The NJISJ President and CEO, Cornell William Brooks, has written a fine article on the "Ban the Box" issue that appeared today in the NJSpotlight, a newsletter targeted at the nonprofit community in New Jersey.

With Cornell's permission, I have appended his article, in full, unedited except in three paragraphs that I have put in bold face because they lay out economic aspects of the problem.

One of today’s major economic challenges to the nation and New Jersey is best described not with new data but with two long-forgotten black-and-white photos. The first depicts a young man with a precocious maturity and the number 7-0-8-9 scratched over his undeniable dignity. The second shows a somewhat older woman whose face reveals both shyness and fierce determination. Yet the number 7-0-5-3 is scrawled like the grime of graffiti across her unrepentant personhood.

The slender young man came to be known not by the arrest number 7-0-8-9 but rather by his formal name: the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr. Similarly, the reserved older woman is not known to the world’s schoolchildren as number 7-0-5-3, but rather as the mother of the modern civil rights movement: Mrs. Rosa Louis Parks.

The 1956 mug shots and criminal records of civil disobedience for Dr. King and Mrs. Parks were found in a file cabinet in 2004 -- forgotten for nearly a half century. Were those records created today, they could neither be lost nor forgotten. The 65 million Americans (one in four adults) with a criminal record are reminded whenever they fill out a job application that states: “Please check the box, if you have ever been arrested or convicted of a crime.” This tiny box is a massive economic challenge to both job applicants and business.

The misuse of criminal records by some employers is not only an economic challenge but also a moral challenge. Business leaders, advocates, and legislators are addressing both with the proposed New Jersey Opportunity to Compete Act, sponsored by Sen. Sandra Bolden Cunningham and Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman.

The economic challenge starts with today's ubiquitous digital technology. Anyone’s criminal record is accessible to anyone anywhere in the world with the click of a mouse or the swipe of a finger across a screen. These Internet records, no matter how old or inaccurate, have digital eternal life. For employers protecting business reputations, workplace safety, and staff quality, criminal record access is critical.

Once a person with a record checks the box, the employment process often ends immediately -- regardless of what the record actually says. A box-checked application is often trashed unread.

Employers who blindly screen out applicants by the box hurt both business and applicants. The majority of people with criminal records have neither spent time in prison nor committed a felony or violent crime. Many are not guilty of any crime at all. Most have been arrested, but not convicted. Moreover, of those convicted, most have only been convicted of nonviolent and often minor crimes.

According to Princeton sociologist Devah Pager, having a criminal record decreases the likelihood of a white male job applicant getting called back for an interview by at least 50 percent. For black men, the rate is even 40 percent worse than for white men.

A man with a record of incarceration will lose $100,000 of income in his prime earning years. Not surprisingly, people formerly incarcerated lower the national employment rate as much as 0.9 of a percentage point; male employment, as much as 1.7 percentage points; and those of less-educated men as much as 6.9 percentage points. This joblessness costs at least $57 billion nationally and annually.

With 65 million Americans with a record, 2.4 million incarcerated nationally and 41,000 statewide, everyone knows someone with a record -- from the studious Rutgers undergrad with a high school shoplifting conviction, to the respected middle manager guilty of a nearly forgotten sorority prank, to countless scores of ambitious young men arrested but never convicted under “stop and frisk” policing run amok in our cities.

The box is also a moral challenge. Harvard sociologist William Julius Wilson has long written empirically, eloquently, and sadly about what happens to poor communities when their citizens aren’t able to work. Joblessness frustrates not only the ability and ambition to hold a job but also the ability and perhaps the aspiration to raise a family responsibly.

Imagine the possible moral consequences of employer policies that impede the ability of literally millions of people to compete fairly for work. Many employers, employees, and parents believe that work is not merely economic activity but a moral exercise. Work and even the ability to compete for work can imbue the young with discipline, ambition, an aversion to crime, and the aspiration to start a family responsibly.

Using the box to unfairly screen out qualified applicants, with minor convictions or mere arrests, not only affects them getting jobs, but also building character, forming families, and contributing to the community. For example, a child who sees a parent working -- or even competing for work–gets a moral lesson in responsibility.

After meeting with the business community for nearly a year, Sen. Cunningham introduced the New Jersey Opportunity to Compete Act. The legislation would move the box off the application and postpone (but not eliminate) a criminal background inquiry. This is precisely the same practical policy of America’s largest private employer, Wal-Mart, and the nation’s largest public employer, the federal government. This policy would allow job applicants first to be considered and compete on their qualifications -- then be asked about and assessed on any criminal record.

Should this legislation pass, New Jersey would join over 50 jurisdictions and 10 states with similar laws. With the bill’s introduction and a dozen pro-business compromises, this bill is now poised to become America’s most business-sensitive and community-responsive law of its kind.

New Jerseyians extol the values of competition and fair play on the sports field. We need to do as much in the job market–particularly for those who only want a shot at a job.