LABOR | Low Participation III (Higher Criminalization Rates)

CityEconomist has suggested demographic changes that could be lowering the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio. Then we added lower job-finding rates and higher reliance on disability payments, both of which could reflect the extended period of unemployment.

This week we received a privately circulated (by email) chart book for November from Risk Management Advisors LLC. It suggests two other explanations for the declining labor force participation rate, namely failures in the educational system and the high U.S. criminalization and incarceration rates, which especially affect Black workers.

In reviewing the causes of lower labor force participation, CityEconomist should have cited the incarceration rate earlier. We posted on the reasons for high recidivism rates and one way to address the problem but did not connect that to labor force participation rates.

Meanwhile, with the permission of the authors of the chart book, Noralyn Marshall and Alastair Hunter-Henderson, we quote in the next few sections from their article. It presents the argument for considering the higher criminalization rates of the past few decades as a contributing factor to the decline in labor force participation among men - note from the chart above left the high unemployment rates among Black men. Risk Management Advisors argue that incarceration helps explain this high unemployment rate. We return at the end with a Comment.

A Criminal Record is an Impediment to Employment

100 million people have a criminal record and are subject to criminal background checks when they apply for a job (U.S. Department of Labor data).

A Pew Center study estimates racial and ethnic prisoner disparities and estimates that incarceration rates are

• 1 percent (one in 106) for White men
• 3 percent (one in 36) for Hispanic men
• 7 percent (one in 15) for Black men

7 million people are now under correctional control (i.e., probation, parole, or incarceration), including one in 45 White adults, one in 27 Hispanic adults and one in 11 Black adults.

This plays a significant role in employment prospects, even if with no disparate treatment between races.

The United States Has the World's Highest Incarceration Rate

12 million arrests were recorded in 2012 or 1 in 25 of the population.

• 4 percent were for violent crimes (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault).
• 36 percent were for simple assault, property crimes, or drug offenses
• 60 percent, the great majority, were less severe (disorderly conduct, drunkenness, prostitution, liquor laws, vagrancy, loitering, DUI, weapons violations)

Many people who have been arrested, and therefore technically have a criminal record, have never been convicted of a crime

Blacks account for less than 13 percent of the population but account for

• 28 percent of all arrests
• 35 percent of the incarcerated population
• 39 percent of adults under correctional control (i.e., probation, parole, or incarceration)(Source: FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, RMA and DOJ Statistics )

It is more difficult for them to reenter the work force.

Reemployment Prospects

Incarceration rates in the United States are higher than any other country in the world. The United States has less than five percent of the world's population but almost a quarter of the world's prisoners. Over the last 30 years, the incarcerated population has more than quadrupled. Today, more than 2.3 million men and women are held in prisons and jails, and one-third of the population has a criminal record.

• For returning workers, the coincidence of inadequate education and criminal records are “baked” into the system, making them structural problems. The increasing complexity of good-paying jobs makes it doubly challenging for individuals facing these growing employment demands to turn their lives around. Many have chosen to give up.
• For the younger generation, the key forces that shape employment prospects have had their impact long before individuals reach adulthood, (when young people need to take responsibility for their lives). The damage to their employment (and life) prospects happens at an early age, certainly for education, and often for criminal activities.

Both the educational system (at least through high school) and the criminal justice system have failed us. It is clear that any solution goes well beyond more expenditures for schools, police, courts and prisons (we spend more per capita than any other country) and will involve major social reforms, new standards and discipline.

The “international competence” bar has risen and the US is falling behind.

Challenges for the Criminal Justice System 

Testifying before the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, Amy Solomon, Senior Advisor to the Assistant Attorney General, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice summarized the situation as follows:

Individuals who come in contact with the criminal justice system face significant challenges beyond their interaction with the system. The corrections population in particular consists largely of men who have for many years exhibited a consistent pattern of criminal involvement, lack of attachments to mainstream institutions of social integration, and a multiplicity of interconnected problems.

A snapshot of jail inmates indicates:

• 68 percent meet the criteria for substance abuse or dependence;
• 60 percent do not have a high school diploma or general equivalency diploma;
• 30 percent were unemployed in the month before arrest and almost twice as many were underemployed;
• 16 percent are estimated to have serious mental health problems; and 
• 14 percent were homeless at some point during the year before they were incarcerated.

Solomon concludes:

This population faces multiple and overlapping problems. The need for treatment, training, and assistance is acute. It is critical that individuals entering prisons and jails be screened to determine their risks and needs, and that appropriate evidence based interventions are applied during incarceration and after release to the community.

Comment by CityEconomist

The discussion above by Marshall and Hunter-Henderson shows how Black criminalization rates affect employment. Here are a few specific things that governments can do:

• Decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana. Here are the 18 states (out of 51 including DC) that have decriminalized marijuana possession (details from NORML) - Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont.
• Eliminate booking for possession of small amounts of  marijuana, and instruct the police to treat the offense like a traffic infraction. New York City's Mayor, Bill de Blasio, has done this. The policy is controversial but widely supported. The New York Times has supported  decriminalization but today has expressed concern about the lack of transparency in the traffic ticketing process - a new problem.
• Support reentry programs for ex-offenders. In New Jersey, of the nearly 70,000 adults and 8,000 juveniles expected to leave the state's correctional facilities over the next several years,  two-thirds will probably be re-arrested within three years of release. The NJISJ's Prisoner Reentry Initiative seeks to reduce this recidivism.

BAN THE BOX | Minor Arrests as Barriers to Jobs

Cornell William Brooks, Esq., President and CEO, NJISJ, 

Newark, N.J. [Now President of NAACP]

Last year I worked for six months in Newark, NJ as Chief Economist for the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice, which is headed by attorney Cornell William Brooks, who used to work in Washington for the Department of Justice.

One of the projects of the NJISJ that I spent some time on was preparing background data to examine the potential impact of a proposed New Jersey law nicknamed "Ban the Box".

This is a bill to prevent job applicants from being given no chance of competing on their qualifications because of the inclusion of a box on employment applications that asks about arrests or convictions.

In practice, checking this box can mean that applicants are disqualified immediately from further consideration.

The NJISJ knows that eliminating the box is not going to help someone who is applying for a job in sensitive areas where stealing or sexual offenses would automatically raise a red flag. The objective is to stop the automatic disqualification of applicants whose offenses may have been

• many years earlier, or were 
• minor incidents of disorderly conduct connected with a sports event or protest, or were 
• group arrests in a  "stop and frisk" situation, or were for 
• convictions for offenses like possession of small amounts of marijuana that would today likely be dismissed.

For the City of Newark, it is an economic issue, because the high unemployment rate in parts of the city means that many youths have a choice between no work and work that borders on, or crosses over, to illegality. The economic health of the city depends on finding work for people who have an arrest or conviction record that is a barrier to employment. "Ban the Box" is an attempt to break this vicious circle.

The NJISJ President and CEO, Cornell William Brooks, has written a fine article on the "Ban the Box" issue that appeared today in the NJSpotlight, a newsletter targeted at the nonprofit community in New Jersey.

With Cornell's permission, I have appended his article, in full, unedited except in three paragraphs that I have put in bold face because they lay out economic aspects of the problem.

One of today’s major economic challenges to the nation and New Jersey is best described not with new data but with two long-forgotten black-and-white photos. The first depicts a young man with a precocious maturity and the number 7-0-8-9 scratched over his undeniable dignity. The second shows a somewhat older woman whose face reveals both shyness and fierce determination. Yet the number 7-0-5-3 is scrawled like the grime of graffiti across her unrepentant personhood.

The slender young man came to be known not by the arrest number 7-0-8-9 but rather by his formal name: the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr. Similarly, the reserved older woman is not known to the world’s schoolchildren as number 7-0-5-3, but rather as the mother of the modern civil rights movement: Mrs. Rosa Louis Parks.

The 1956 mug shots and criminal records of civil disobedience for Dr. King and Mrs. Parks were found in a file cabinet in 2004 -- forgotten for nearly a half century. Were those records created today, they could neither be lost nor forgotten. The 65 million Americans (one in four adults) with a criminal record are reminded whenever they fill out a job application that states: “Please check the box, if you have ever been arrested or convicted of a crime.” This tiny box is a massive economic challenge to both job applicants and business.

The misuse of criminal records by some employers is not only an economic challenge but also a moral challenge. Business leaders, advocates, and legislators are addressing both with the proposed New Jersey Opportunity to Compete Act, sponsored by Sen. Sandra Bolden Cunningham and Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman.

The economic challenge starts with today's ubiquitous digital technology. Anyone’s criminal record is accessible to anyone anywhere in the world with the click of a mouse or the swipe of a finger across a screen. These Internet records, no matter how old or inaccurate, have digital eternal life. For employers protecting business reputations, workplace safety, and staff quality, criminal record access is critical.

Once a person with a record checks the box, the employment process often ends immediately -- regardless of what the record actually says. A box-checked application is often trashed unread.

Employers who blindly screen out applicants by the box hurt both business and applicants. The majority of people with criminal records have neither spent time in prison nor committed a felony or violent crime. Many are not guilty of any crime at all. Most have been arrested, but not convicted. Moreover, of those convicted, most have only been convicted of nonviolent and often minor crimes.

According to Princeton sociologist Devah Pager, having a criminal record decreases the likelihood of a white male job applicant getting called back for an interview by at least 50 percent. For black men, the rate is even 40 percent worse than for white men.

A man with a record of incarceration will lose $100,000 of income in his prime earning years. Not surprisingly, people formerly incarcerated lower the national employment rate as much as 0.9 of a percentage point; male employment, as much as 1.7 percentage points; and those of less-educated men as much as 6.9 percentage points. This joblessness costs at least $57 billion nationally and annually.

With 65 million Americans with a record, 2.4 million incarcerated nationally and 41,000 statewide, everyone knows someone with a record -- from the studious Rutgers undergrad with a high school shoplifting conviction, to the respected middle manager guilty of a nearly forgotten sorority prank, to countless scores of ambitious young men arrested but never convicted under “stop and frisk” policing run amok in our cities.

The box is also a moral challenge. Harvard sociologist William Julius Wilson has long written empirically, eloquently, and sadly about what happens to poor communities when their citizens aren’t able to work. Joblessness frustrates not only the ability and ambition to hold a job but also the ability and perhaps the aspiration to raise a family responsibly.

Imagine the possible moral consequences of employer policies that impede the ability of literally millions of people to compete fairly for work. Many employers, employees, and parents believe that work is not merely economic activity but a moral exercise. Work and even the ability to compete for work can imbue the young with discipline, ambition, an aversion to crime, and the aspiration to start a family responsibly.

Using the box to unfairly screen out qualified applicants, with minor convictions or mere arrests, not only affects them getting jobs, but also building character, forming families, and contributing to the community. For example, a child who sees a parent working -- or even competing for work–gets a moral lesson in responsibility.

After meeting with the business community for nearly a year, Sen. Cunningham introduced the New Jersey Opportunity to Compete Act. The legislation would move the box off the application and postpone (but not eliminate) a criminal background inquiry. This is precisely the same practical policy of America’s largest private employer, Wal-Mart, and the nation’s largest public employer, the federal government. This policy would allow job applicants first to be considered and compete on their qualifications -- then be asked about and assessed on any criminal record.

Should this legislation pass, New Jersey would join over 50 jurisdictions and 10 states with similar laws. With the bill’s introduction and a dozen pro-business compromises, this bill is now poised to become America’s most business-sensitive and community-responsive law of its kind.

New Jerseyians extol the values of competition and fair play on the sports field. We need to do as much in the job market–particularly for those who only want a shot at a job.

Lessons from Sandy Regarding the Elderly, Heating

The New Jersey Institute for Social Justice prepared an in-depth report on the ways in which special groups of New Jersey residents were permanently hurt by the storm, more than the average resident. The report can be accessed here.

The report found that (1) Sandy deaths in New Jersey were concentrated among elderly people and (2) many of these deaths might have been prevented if the victims had been better informed about using generators and ovens for heating.

This post reviews the information. Relative to population, the incidence of deaths was greatest in New Jersey. As of November 17, 2012, Hurricane Sandy was blamed for the loss of 106 lives in the tri-state area – 64 in New York State (mostly in Queens and Staten Island), 37 in New Jersey, and five in Connecticut (http://nyti.ms/WlzwsI).

Most of Hurricane Sandy’s fatalities in New Jersey have been among the elderly: 21 of the victims, or 57 percent of those who died, were 65 or older; and 31, or 84 percent, were 50 or older. The numbers are similar for New York. (See Chart 1.) 

Chart 1. Hurricane Sandy Deaths, by Age, NJ and NY

Note: The total U.S. death count was 132 as of January 7, 2013, according to the New York Times, Jan. 7, 2013. Source: Chart computed by NJISJ from database posted by the New York Times, November 18, 2012.

Hurricane Sandy has exposed shortcomings in health care, especially for the elderly. The list of causes of death of the elderly shows repeated instances of preventable fatalities.

Some people killed by Hurricane Sandy were drowned by rising water or hit by a falling tree. These accidents could happen to anyone, although people who have restricted mobility are particularly vulnerable to them. The major remediable cause of death in New Jersey was asphyxiation, which includes carbon monoxide poisoning.  (See Chart 2.)

Chart 2. Hurricane Sandy Deaths by Cause, NJ & NYS

Note: “Was hit” generally means by a skidding vehicle on a street. “Asphyxiation” includes carbon monoxide inhalation from heating via a stove or running a generator in a closed space; such deaths are called “indirect” by the National Hurricane Center. “Tree/debris” as cause of death usually means a branch or tree falling of its own weight, or debris propelled by wind. Such deaths are described as “direct” consequences of the storm. Source: Chart computed by NJISJ based on database posted by The New York Times November 17, 2012 (http://nyti.ms/WlzwsI).

Asphyxiation is typically caused by residents’ attempts to alleviate the cold during a power outage.  Some may light a fire in the home that gets of control or sucks out the oxygen, while others run stoves or generators inside or near a living space, which can lead to carbon monoxide poisoning. Some in New Jersey also died of the cold itself – that is, of hypothermia due to loss of heat and lack warm clothing or blankets. The rate of asphyxiation and hypothermia continued to be much higher than normal for some weeks after Hurricane Sandy, as a cold spell hit and many displaced people lived in unheated conditions, leading to reliance on stove heat.

Another common problem during and after Hurricane Sandy hit was lack of backup power for medical equipment such as respirators. Special trips to replace run-down batteries on medical equipment were priced as high as $200. Service delayed for some meant service denied, and in some cases it meant death. Elderly people who were isolated and could not help themselves perished for lack of family, friends or a service to check on them.

The Dangers of Physical and Social Isolation

During the Chicago heat wave of 1995, the neighborhood of Englewood had 11 times as the neighborhood of Auburn Graham. The difference can be attributed to the strength of contacts among members of these communities (Eric Klinenberg in “Adaptation”, The New Yorker, January 7, 2013, p. 32, http://nyr.kr/111DjP7). People in Auburn Gresham communicate, and life expectancy is high. Compared with Englewood, says Harvard sociologist Robert J. Sampson, communication in Auburn Gresham is as effective in preventing heat-related deaths as having a working air conditioner in every room.

Communication among neighbors and centers of community activities is important for two reasons:

• It amplifies the transmission of useful information around the community, ensuring for example than no one is unaware of the risks of using a generator or how to mitigate those risks.
• It allows Good Samaritans to check to see who nearby needs help.

Main Conclusion

Most of the New Jersey residents who died as a result of the storm were 65 or older. The leading causes of death among this age group were asphyxiation, as respirators could not work without electricity, and carbon monoxide poisoning from fires or generators.

Some of these deaths might have been prevented by means of greater communication among and with vulnerable groups. A plan for achieving this goal should be developed before the next storm season.

Recommendations to Agency Planners: Prepare for the Next Storm with the Elderly in Mind

• Organize  buddy systems for the elderly, pairing those with phones with those who do not have them. Encouraging able-bodied and socially connected neighbors to keep tabs on the elderly in their community who would otherwise lack social support in a crisis. The cost of such a program would be minimal if volunteers could be recruited from churches, senior centers and other socially involved community meeting places.
• Special efforts should be made in a storm to identify and communicate storm warnings and advice to elderly or disabled people.
• An educational campaign is needed to explain the shortcomings of ovens and generators as heating sources in a blackout. Public utilities could be enlisted to circulate information on avoiding death from this cause.                      
• When medical equipment is installed in the homes of elderly people, the length of time that backup batteries work should be communicated to the families and professionals who look after the elderly in case of a disaster, and a follow-up system needs to be in place. Governments’ and utilities’ storm warnings should alert people to check and recharge batteries. Similarly, the medical profession and pharmacies should alert patients to the need to have several weeks’ worth of life-sustaining prescriptions available in an emergency because it may not be possible in a blackout to dispense prescriptions.

PSE&G is prepared to assist families reliant on medical equipment if they pre-register with PSE&G to receive priority attention in the event of an outage. To request the service, call 1-800-436-7734.                 

Recommendations to Households: Make Sure All Adults Know How to Operate a Home Generator Safely

Home generators are handy for backup electricity in case of a power outage, but must only be used in accordance with the manufacturer's guidelines.

• A back-up generator may only be connected to your home's electrical system through an approved transfer panel and switch that has been installed by a qualified electrician. Never connect the generator to your home's main wiring circuit.
• Never plug a generator into a wall outlet, as serious injury can result when the current produced by the home generator is fed back into the electrical lines, and transformed to a higher voltage. Disconnect your home from the power system before hooking up a generator. Feeding electricity back to the grid can endanger the lives of utility employees working to restore power.
• Plug lights and appliances directly into the generator. Use extension cords if necessary, but do not exceed the recommended wattage noted on the generator and use properly rated, UL or CSA-approved  cords.
• To operate a generator safely, follow the manufacturer's instructions and operate the generator outdoors in well-ventilated conditions, well away from doors or windows, to prevent exhaust gases from entering the house. Gasoline powered generators can produce carbon monoxide, which can be deadly.

NJ Lt. Gov. Guadagno Speaks at Biggest-Ever NJISJ Graduation

Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, graduation speaker, between
Cornell Brooks, President and CEO of the NJISJ (on her left)
and Al Williams, Director of Workforce Development (on
 her right), with graduating trainees and others.

The graduation ceremony for the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice trainees on April 15 was the biggest ever, with 16 graduating trainees and altogether more than 100 men, women and children (families of the graduates)  taking part in the program held at the PSE+G conference center at 80 Park Plaza in Newark.

The featured speaker was Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, who since July 2009 has been Governor Christopher J. "Chris" Christie's running mate and is now his second in command and the 33rd New Jersey Secretary of State.

Lt. Gov. Guadagno began by noting some of the successes of New Jersey's economic development strategy, which she oversees as part of the work of the New Jersey Partnership for Action. The PFA includes a Business Action Center to respond to the business community; the New Jersey Economic Development Authority; and Choose New Jersey, a nonprofit created to nurture economic growth in the state. She noted that her office had helped get 17 building contracts under way, creating 5,400 construction jobs. She chairs the Red Tape Review Commission, which attempts to streamline the State's regulations. She said she is surely "the best Lt. Governor New Jersey has ever had," and she can say this with confidence because she is the first and only person to have had the office.

In her dual role as Secretary of State, she oversees economic development programs and streamlining of government regulations. Guadagno moved to New Jersey in 1991 and has been a resident of Monmouth Beach since marrying Michael Guadagno in 1991. He is a judge of the New Jersey Superior Court, Appellate Division. The Guadagnos have three children.

Born Kimberly Ann McFadden in Waterloo, Iowa, Lt. Gov. Guadagno earned a Bachelor of Arts degree from Ursinus College in Pennsylvania and a law degree from the American University's Washington College of Law. Former Assistant United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York and the District of New Jersey, she was also Assistant New Jersey Attorney General.

Serving as deputy chief of the U.S. Attorney's office's corruption unit, Guadagno was responsible for the corruption prosecutions of former Essex County Executive Thomas D'Alessio (a Democrat) and of Somerset County Prosecutor Nicholas Bissell (a Republican).

She taught legal research and writing at Rutgers School of Law—Newark from 2003 until she was elected to state office and in 2005 she was elected to Monmouth Beach's governing body as one of its three Walsh Act commissioners.

She was elected the 75th sheriff of Monmouth County in 2007, the first woman sheriff. She managed  a staff of 650 and a $65 million budget that included operation of a 1,328-bed maximum security prison. She told the graduating seniors:

Don't let anyone ever tell you that you can't do something. Look, if I can be sheriff, you can be anything you want to be. 

She noted that Gov. Christie is a big supporter of the pre-apprenticeship training program and has also championed the "Helmets to Hardhats" program for returning veterans.

Other speakers at the graduation ceremony included Mr. Lash Green, who manages the Office of Diversity in the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. He described the NJISJ training program as

one of the most effective programs around.

JOBS | Mock Interviews Educate Both Ways

Last week I spent four hours engaged in "mock interviews". They were very instructive for me and I think also for the interviewees.

As part of a training program for hazardous-worker certification provided by the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice in Newark, the trainees are given some instruction in preparing their resumes and conducting themselves in a job interview. The program is geared to placing trainees in specific jobs, and the instructors tackle every aspect of the path from training to employment.

My task was to serve as an interviewer. The company I represented is a (real) California-based company that had obtained contracts to engage in superfund remediation in New Jersey, and was hiring staff. Two panels of three interviewers were allowed about 20 minutes to listen to each interviewee, and then evaluated them on their knowledge of the subject matter, communication skills, and likely suitability for the job they were seeking. After it was all over, the interviewers gave some advice to each candidate.

One question that I asked produced some interesting answers: "What were your favorite and least-favorite jobs?"

One interviewee gave as both his favorite and least favorite jobs three posts that were not on his resume! He didn't think they were significant enough to list. I suggested the favorite jobs should definitely be on the resume for two reasons:

• The most-favorite jobs are helpful to the interviewer in establishing where the job applicant might best fit, and
• Getting a question about one's most favorite job is a great opportunity to show a "sparkle in your eyes" about a job.

Another interviewee said that all of his jobs were equally important. He had no favorites. My reaction was that this is unnatural. Among children or students or employees, one tries not to show one's favoritism. But surely everyone feels more warmly toward some work experiences than others. Given the opportunity to show the "sparkle in the eye" I urged this interviewee to try to figure out something he could be enthusiastic about.

For my part, it was a great experience seeing some of the interviewees gaining confidence during the course of the interview, and at the end of it all I could see that some of them got a lot out of the exercise. Playing the role of an interviewer as well as an interviewee should be part of the clinical program of any business school.

SANDY | Damage to NJ Homes, by County

Source: Chart by CityEconomist based on FEMA data. Permission
granted to use this chart with attribution to CityEconomist.

Using aerial surveys, FEMA reports that 71,770 homes were damaged in New Jersey. The damage is classified as "Affected", "Minor", "Major" and "Destroyed".

Of the New Jersey homes that were "Affected" or worse, 40,001 homes – or 55.7 percent of them statewide – were in Ocean County, which above Atlantic County and below Monmouth County on New Jersey's Atlantic coast.

Although the eye of Sandy made landfall in Atlantic County below Atlantic City, it is not surprising that the brunt of the impact was felt in Ocean County. Hurricane Sandy was spinning counter-clockwise when it hit land.  

The damage to the two counties adjacent to Ocean County, Atlantic and Monmouth, was the same percentage of New Jersey homes - 14.1 percent. 

Cape May, to the south of Atlantic County, accounts for 10 percent of the damaged homes. These four counties account for 94 percent of the damaged homes.

(John Tepper Marlin is Chief Economist for the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice. This blog is personal and does not reflect the views of the NJISJ.)