JOBS BY STATE | Every state lost jobs. CA, NY, TX lost the most.

This map is interactive at the source (BLS).

May 22, 2020—In April 2020, jobs (nonfarm payroll employment) decreased in every one of the 50 states and in the District of Columbia.

The most-affected states were primarily ones with more population and more density.

States with Largest Job Losses

The three states with the largest job declines were California, New York and Texas.

California lost 2.34 million jobs, New York lost 1.83 million (more precisely, 1,827,300 net nonfarm payroll jobs) and Texas lost 1.30 million.

The three states with the largest percentage loss of jobs were Michigan, Vermont and New York. Michigan lost 22.8 percent of its jobs. Vermont lost 19.6 percent and New York lost 18.8 percent. See Tables E and 3 of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release this morning.

Which Sectors Lost the Most Jobs in New York State?

The hardest-hit industry sector in New York was Leisure and Hospitality, which lost, between March and April 2020, 548,500 jobs, or 64.1 percent of all of its payroll jobs in New York State. This of course reflects Governor Andrew Cuomo's well-advised shutdown order.  Health care workers and teachers jobs declined by much less, only 10.9 percent. Financial and information services, and government, appear to have maintained their staffing, presumably through use of the Internet.

Industry	March	April	Decline	Percent decline
Mining and Logging	4.8	4.8	0.0	0.0
Construction	383.8	234.1	149.7	39.0
Manufacturing	435.9	355.3	80.6	18.5
Trade, Transport, Utilities	1,513.0	1181.5	331.5	21.9
Information	275.8	267.5	8.3	3.0
Financial Activities	700.5	685.6	14.9	2.1
Professional and Biz Svces	1,373.1	1178.3	194.8	14.2
Educational, Health Svces	2,182.1	1944.9	237.2	10.9
Leisure and Hospitality	855.9	307.4	548.5	64.1
Other Services	411.6	291.1	120.5	29.3
Government	1,500.1	1438.9	61.2	4.1
Total	9,636.6	7,889.4	1,747.2	18.1

Source: BLS data (first two columns), computations (second two columns) by CityEconomist. The BLS payroll data by state are not seasonally adjusted.

Over the past twelve months (April 2019 to April 2020), New York lost 1,904,900 payroll jobs. In April, New York’s private sector lost 1,764,600 private payroll jobs compared with March, and over the past twelve months it lost 1,845,700 private payroll jobs.

Trajectories by State

Imperial College of London has published a tracking report for each U.S. state that shows how the trajectory of outbreaks diverges. At the time of release, 24 states, mostly in the midwest and south, had “uncontrolled” outbreaks, meaning the reproduction (infection) rate of the virus was above 1.

Unemployment by State

The unemployment rate in April rose to the highest level in Nevada, 28.2 percent, followed by Michigan, 22.7 percent, and Hawaii, 22.3 percent. The rates, which are seasonally adjusted, set new series highs in 43 states. All state series begin in 1976. The information is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, along with an interactive map of state unemployment rates.

Unemployment rates in Hawaii and Nevada exceeded their previous series highs by more than 10.0 percentage points each. Connecticut had the lowest unemployment rate, 7.9 percent. All together, 27 states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rates lower than the national average of 14.7 percent and 10 states had higher rates (the other 13 state rates were not significantly different from that of the nation). This information is in Tables A, B and 1 of the BLS release.

In April, the largest unemployment rate increases occurred in Nevada (+21.3 percentage points), Hawaii (+19.9 points), and Michigan (+18.4 points). Rates rose over the month by at least 10.0 percentage points in an additional 17 states. The smallest over-the-month jobless rate increases occurred in Nebraska (+4.3 percentage points) and Connecticut (+4.5 points). This information is from Table C in the BLS release.

The largest unemployment rate increases from April 2019 occurred in Nevada (+24.2 percentage points) and Hawaii (+19.6 points), and Michigan (+18.4 points). Another 21 states experienced increases of 10.0 points or more. The smallest over-the-year rate increases occurred in Connecticut (+4.2 percentage points) and Minnesota (+4.9 points). See Table D in the BLS release.

New York's unemployment rate rose by 10.4 percentage points to 14.5 percent in April. New York’s labor force participation rate fell to 58.3 percent in April from 60.2 percent in March.

MASKS AND BREATHING AIDS | Updated June 2, 2021

June 2, 2021—The Centers for Disease Control has issued mask guidelines that supersede suggestions I posted here a year ago. Here are the latest guidelines: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/types-of-masks.html.

A Mechanical Ventilator. But we learned that
ventilators are a last resort, because 
intubation has serious risks of its own.

March 21, 2020–New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo today gave an enlightening speech about the COVID-19 challenges stressing the need for masks in the millions, and ventilators, of which the Governor says there are 6,000 in the State and 35,000 are needed. 

(Update October 21, 2020: A survey of more than 200 U.S. mayors earlier in 2020 indicated a shortage of 139,000 ventilators. 

But ventilators are no longer such a priority. Preferred treatment avoids using full-scale ventilators except as a last resort. Ventilators require intubation that is risky. Intermediate equipment such as use of oxygen or sleep apnea machines is less invasive and sometimes works. 

Masks are ranked here according to quality: https://bit.ly/2HmrnUu.)

New York State suffers from a shortage of both
I. Protective Devices (masks and face coverings) and
II. Mechanical Aids, i.e., devices for putting oxygen into the lungs.

This post details these two types of equipment.  This is a lay summary to fill an information vacuum that existed, when first posted, in a field replete with changing and contradictory instructions for hospital staff. If you have a better explanation of any of the equipment that follows, balancing simplicity with precision, or something else to add, please comment or send me a note – john @ cityeconomist.com.

I. PROTECTIVE DEVICES: (A) THE N95 MASK, (B) HIGHER-STANDARD MASKS AND (C) THE CLOTH FACE COVERING. 

A fabric mask is worn by three groups of people: (1) health-care workers and anyone with COVID symptoms, who are expected to wear an N95 mask if they can get them, (2) higher-standard masks for special situations, and (3) lower-standard masks of "cloth face coverings" for people with no symptoms who are in public places.

A. The N95 Mask. The top-quality commonly used working mask in the United States is the N95 mask. The "N" comes from the National Institute for Occupational Health and Safety (NIOSH), which sets standards for protective equipment in the workplace. The 95 references the fact that the mask filters out 95 percent of particulates. 3M makes a lot of them. The higher standard is N99. Availability: The shortage of masks is acute, but this shortage may ease in two weeks and be over (at least in New York State) in three weeks, because the call has gone out to collect and make these masks, and many groups and people are responding. Governor Cuomo of New York has been working on putting millions of masks in hospitals in New York City and the rest of the state. The masks are simple in concept, but the N95 standard requires (1) a tight fit, and (2) a very fine screen, because the coronavirus is microscopically tiny and can get past a casually handled mask. They are easy to put on and are used by both medical staff and patients, mostly to contain any viral infection they have as well as provide a defense against a virus from someone else. Governor Cuomo said that new masks are a priority for hospitals to meet the first waves of patients from their expanded testing.  There is already a shortage of masks in New York City. The N95 masks I have seen are supposed to be used only once (although they can be set aside for a month and then reused safely after the SARS-CoV2 virus has died), but doctors at Brooklyn's Kings County Hospital Center report that because of a lack of masks they have been reusing masks for up to a week, disinfecting them with hand sanitizer between shifts. The masks are relatively cheap to buy (prices have been as low as 80 cents each but, with the pandemic, Governor Cuomo says that he has had to pay as much as  $7 for an emergency order, as state governments have been bidding against one another for them. The Congress should pass a waiver of these masks from President Trump's new China tariffs – perhaps all medical supplies should be exempt from tariffs during a pandemic.

Other related masks are:

• The "N45" Mask. The "N45" mask, referred to in a tweet by Mia Farrow, is fictional. It does not exist.

It would mean a mask that filters out only 45 percent of particulates, which is not very effective. The origin of the "N45" mask reference appears to have been facetious, referencing that our current president is the 45th. Probably a lot of homemade masks for the public (see below) are as low as the N45 standard would be, but no manufacturer would advertise it.

• Masks Comparable to the N95. The equivalents of the N95 masks in Europe are the FFP2 and FFP3 face masks (see Postscript below for a test of the equivalence of the two standards). An Asian standard has been reported, KN95, which also screens out 95 percent of particulates; such masks are widely sold in the United States and have recently been accepted by the FDA as equivalent to N95 masks. (P.S. June 2021: The Centers for Disease Control says that perhaps 60 percent of KN95 masks currently sold in the United States are counterfeit and do not meet NIOSH N95 standards. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/types-of-masks.html .)

B. Higher-Standard Masks and Respirators.  The NIOSH N99 standard is higher but less commonly used, probably because such a fine screen might be hard to breathe through and might interfere with work. Respirators with Intake Filters: A respirator with a protective intake filter is used to protect a medical staff member working in an area with chemicals or germs.  It looks like a World War gas mask. It typically has a replaceable or cleanable filter. It is not something one sees on COVID patients, but people on the staff of an ICU might prefer to have a respirator with a mechanical filter than a mask. However, it is NOT recommended for the general public, because it may protect the user, but allowing exhalation means that other people are not protected.  Availability: There is no reported shortage of such respirators for a wide variety of uses. They are more expensive than surgical masks. They are bulky and require maintenance and training in use. Many are available online at a wide range of prices. They are not recommended for public use by the Centers for Disease Control: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/types-of-masks.html.

C. Cloth Face Coverings: Masks for the Public. In Asian countries, 80 percent of the public wear face masks in public. People are convinced that the masks make them safer, and indeed infection rates are much lower than in the West. A mask debate has been raging in the United States. Those who argue that containing the virus means everyone should wear a mask in public have been gaining adherents. One conclusion from the little research that has been done on mask-wearing is that if only 20 percent of the public wears a mask, it won't make much difference, but if 50 percent does, it will make a substantial difference. Masks for the public do not have to fit as tightly or have such a fine screen as the N95 mask. Their purpose is in part to remind people not to keep touching their face. These masks are simpler in design and can be made more cheaply, even homemade. The quality can be high if several layers of filtration are used. It is a good craft project for families. The CDC is now calling them "Cloth Face Coverings" to distinguish them from NIOSH-rated and similar quality masks. Availability. Simple versions of masks can be made by hand. YouTube videos show how; here's a link from the office of Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-NY12 with ideas.

Resources. Below are some sources of information on creating or collecting masks and other equipment for coronavirus medical personnel, who are the priority at the moment:

• Governments and companies race to make masks for the coronavirus fight (NY Times): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/business/coronavirus-masks-hanes-trump.html.
• What coronavirus doctors and nurses fighting the pandemic wear (HuffPost): https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nurses-doctors-wear-coronavirus-pandemic_l_5e73bd19c5b6eab779447292. 
• Are homemade masks better than no protection? (Medscape): https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927259.
• The Netherlands recalled defective masks made in China, about 600,000 of which had been distributed to local hospitals, the health ministry said. Earlier, Spain and Turkey complained of faulty rapid-testing kits from China. (Medscape): https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927259.
• Austria makes masks compulsory as protection debate shifts.
• Four European countries make masks mandatory.
• The crucial missing Coronavirus Protection Guideline https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVEVve-3QeM
• How Czech Republic Maintains Low Contagion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2dOs-LhJaQ
• How to make your own mask https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FB--BOyTiU

II. MECHANICAL BREATHING AIDS: (A) The Ventilator, (B) Oxygen Tank and mask, (C) CPAP machine, (D) BIPAP and Vapotherm machine.

A. The Ventilator (also called a "medical ventilator" or a "mechanical ventilator") provides breathing assistance to patients for whom providing oxygen is not enough. It's what is required for COVID-19 patients who have a serious case. Unlike previous flu infections, which did not require a ventilator for as long or as many people, the COVID virus can require use of a ventilator for many weeks and for a significant portion of those who are sick. A “ventilator” (mechanical ventilator) is a machine that takes over the work of breathing for a patient with primary respiratory failure due to lung disease or secondary respiratory failure due to central nervous system disease, anesthesia or drug overdose. Ventilators are connected to the patient via an endotracheal tube (“breathing tube”) that is placed in the patient's trachea (“wind pipe”). Ventilators remove carbon dioxide and deliver oxygen to maintain physiologic homeostasis (normal blood pH). Clearly, such a machine requires expertise to operate. New York startups are working hard to develop a simpler ventilator that will be cheaper and easier to use. Availability: Scarce. The cost for a ventilator is about $7,000, but prices vary widely based on location of manufacturer and demand. They are cheaper in China. In New York State some hospitals are already doubling up on ventilators because they are not just expensive but are hard to buy. Governor Cuomo suggested on March 21 that they might be adapted so that two patients can be on one machine, and some innovators are experimenting with more than two. They are also not easy to use and training staff takes time that no one has during the pandemic. If the hospitals are not ready, difficult triage decisions will have to be made. Governor Cuomo has put out a call for all medical ventilators not in use as he seeks to buy more and create more emergency beds. He has also noted that the competitive bidding among the states could be ended by invocation of the Defense Production Act by the President. He has said that the New York hospitals will run out of ventilators in the second week of April, right before Easter. Most recently he has been saying that only 20 (sometimes he says 20-30)  percent of ventilator patients survive. The National Health Service in Britain says that one-third survive. However, of those who survive, a large portion, perhaps one-third, suffer from trauma or scarred lungs or trachea.

B. The oxygen tank doesn't reliably get oxygen to a COVID patient. It is the first mechanical resource for a person who has trouble breathing. But a COVID patient's problems are all the way in the lung, and the oxygen from a tank is is fed through the nose or mouth with plastic tubing, a regulator and a face mask or nasal prongs. The good news is that it is relatively inexpensive ($1,000-$2,500 range) and is relatively easy to learn to use. One of my late uncles had his own oxygen tank for years.  Availability: There seems to be no shortage of oxygen tanks in the United States, or of people who know how to use them, but they are not ideal for treating a COVID patient because the virus finds its way to the lungs. If and when ventilators are scarce, oxygen tanks might have some role.

C. A sleep apnea or CPAP machine blows ambient air into the lung like an oxygen machine. (CPAP stands for "continuous positive airway pressure.") It can be a lifesaver for someone who has breathing problems at night in bed. It has a computer-chip-controlled air flow regulator, a tube and a mask; many models include a humidifier. It is not a substitute for an oxygen tank, which in turn is not a substitute for a ventilator. However, conceivably innovators will be at work adapting equipment where there are shortages of ventilators. (A problem with CPAP machines, as David notes below in a comment, is that the exhale part of the cycle would spew viruses into the air; this would have to be modified.) Some new models might replace an oxygen tank regulator, for example. Meanwhile, it is not an alternative to a ventilator for someone hospitalized with COVID-19. Availability: Too bad the CPAP machine isn't ready yet to replace oxygen tanks or ventilators, because these machines are much less expensive, about $1,000, and are widely available. Reportedly some innovators are working on bridging the gap between the CPAP machine and the oxygen tank, and the CPAP machine and ventilator.

D. BiPAP and Vapotherm machines. When patients with respiratory illness need assistance to breathe, multiple respiratory care options are available before physicians resort to intubation and use of a ventilator—including nebulizers, high flow nasal cannulas and bi-level positive airway pressure (BiPAP) machines. The risk from them again is airborne transmissions to healthcare workers. Vapotherm's high velocity therapy provides mask-free non-invasive ventilatory support," says  the product's website. High velocity/high flow therapy, properly fitted and applied, is associated with a low risk of airborne transmissions. A North Fork, L.I. hospital worker has laid out $10,000 to purchase such a machine for her hospital's ICU. (I have no idea whether the Vapotherm machine does the job and is appropriately priced; I am still trying to find out.)

Three general comments:

• Experimentation with several breathing aids will surely generate gradations that could reduce the excess demand for ventilators.
• For the moment, the challenge is to get something basic to hospitals. Some day maybe engineers who design these products so they are easier to use and designers will make them look better. Maybe they could help make ventilators look less like a gas pump and more friendlier both for the patient and the person who operates it. 
• Meanwhile, the pandemic will provide lots of time for families to experiment with interesting fabrics for their homemade masks and for medical-device people and apparel designers to work together on Zoom to make the look of the business of defeating illness more imaginative.

Postscript 1: The big brands have been stepping up to make the N95 and other masks that are in short supply. LVMH is using a Chinese distributor to order 40 million FFP2 (European standard) for France. https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/news-analysis/lvmh-to-supply-france-with-40-million-surgical-masks-to-tackle-shortage. 

Postscript 2: Here is a 2009 study comparing the filtration effectiveness of NIOSH N95 and the European-standard FFP2 and FFP3 masks. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19261695

Ann Occup Hyg. 2009 Mar;53(2):117-28. doi: 10.1093/annhyg/men086.

Comparison of nanoparticle filtration performance of NIOSH-approved and CE-marked particulate filtering facepiece respirators.

Rengasamy S1, Eimer BC, Shaffer RE.

Abstract

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and European Norms (ENs) employ different test protocols for evaluation of air-purifying particulate respirators commonly referred to as filtering facepiece respirators (FFR). The relative performance of the NIOSH-approved and EN-certified 'Conformité Européen' (CE)-marked FFR is not well studied. NIOSH requires a minimum of 95 and 99.97% efficiencies for N95 and P100 FFR, respectively; meanwhile, the EN requires 94 and 99% efficiencies for FFRs, class P2 (FFP2) and class P3 (FFP3), respectively. To better understand the filtration performance of NIOSH- and CE-marked FFRs, initial penetration levels of N95, P100, FFP2 and FFP3 respirators were measured using a series of polydisperse and monodisperse aerosol test methods and compared. Initial penetration levels of polydisperse NaCl aerosols [mass median diameter (MMD) of 238 nm] were measured using a method similar to the NIOSH respirator certification test method. Monodisperse aerosol penetrations were measured using silver particles for 4-30 nm and NaCl particles for 20-400 nm ranges. Two models for each FFR type were selected and five samples from each model were tested against charge neutralized aerosol particles at 85 l min(-1) flow rate.

PSEG | Long Island Utility 2.0 Plan (Comments)

We signed up to speak at the Hearing in East Hampton that started at 5 pm, but were not able to wait beyond 8 pm. We sent the following comments to the Secretary of the NY State Department of Public Services.

COMMENTS OF DR. JOHN TEPPER MARLIN AND MRS. ALICE TEPPER MARLIN

ON PSEG LONG ISLAND UTILITY 2.0 PLAN, DPS MATTER NUMBER 14-01299

We have reviewed the PSEG Long Island Utility 2.0 Plan as posted July 1, 2014. Our overall comment is that we find nothing in the plan about the following important topics:

• The impact of the energy generation plans on local communities on Long Island,
  
• Cooperation with local officials in the implementation of the plans,
  
• Respect for local environmental and land use provisions.

These omissions are especially serious in light of PSEG's record during the past year in expanding the electricity-transmission capacity of New Jersey and Long Island, NY. It does not seem to have given any weight in this task to local rights, regulations or responsibilities, and the risks to safety that its expansion creates.

The tradition-proud leaderships of some villages in New Jersey and New York are shocked by the way PSEG has recently:

• Ignored long-standing local environmental and planning processes,
• Provided little or no notice to the either local governments or affected individuals, before installing poles
• Installed super-tall poles (70 feet long, says the NY Times), widely viewed as eyesores, that  have been treated with a toxic chemical, Penta or PCP (Pentachlorophenol) an organochlorine compound primarily used for preservation of wooden utility poles. There are no permissible residential uses. The manufacturer says it may be fatal if inhaled or absorbed through skin, harmful if swallowed, and irritating to skin, eye and respiratory tract. It can cause cardiovascular and other effects. PSEG workers who put in the poles are exposed to Penta through inhalation and skin contact. Residents are exposed through contact with ground around the wood, or drinking water contaminated by Penta through leakage into wells. U.S. EPA classifies Penta as a "probable carcinogen".
• Reduced the attractiveness of properties and therefore their values,
• Added to existing 26 kV (kilovolt) lines substantially heavier 69 kV lines above ground, posing new storm hazards,
• Has proscribed local first responders from removing fallen wires, which run in front of the Emergency Services Building in East Hampton. This may halt the ability of local first responders to reach victims in emergencies, with the possibility of long delays in providing emergency services in hurricanes and storms.

Herewith a few notes about three communities from the growing recent record of insults to community planning and regulations - Ridgewood, NJ; Port Washington, NY; and East Hampton, NY.

Ridgewood, NJ (August-November 2013). Ridgewood Mayor Paul Aronsohn complained of PSEG's installing 78 new wooden utility poles, 15 feet higher than standard poles. Residents were opposed to the height of the poles and the new hazards and the project was halted. In July, a tweeter wrote: "If Ridgewood NJ hates the new poles, let them go w/out power next storm.” PSEG retweeted the message to 42,000 followers at @PSEGCares and other accounts. Ridgewood Mayor Aronsohn said the retweets “could be construed as a threat.” (Source: WCBS 880.)

Ridgewood's Mayor went to the NJ Board of Public Utilities (NJ BPU) in Trenton to stop the taller, higher-voltage utility poles. He noted that PSEG did not provide advance notice, was using higher-voltage lines without regard to the increased hazards in an emergency, and the poles would lower property values in a community where the median home price exceeds $700,000.

The bad news in November for Ridgewood was that NJ BPU ruled against Ridgewood. Its president, Robert Hanna, said he had "sympathy" for the citizens and the "aesthetic effect" of the project. But he didn't see the health and safety concerns.  Ridgewood's Mayor reiterated his call for underground lines:

The increasing frequency of destructive storms combined with the increasing demand for electricity suggests that the 'business-as-usual' approach — more poles with higher voltage — must be revisited.

The good news for Ridgewood was that NJ BPU agreed with the Village that PSEG had not given residents or village officials proper advance warning about the pending work:

• Board of Public Utilities President Hanna observed that during Hurricane Sandy and other storms, NJ utilities had already been criticized for failure to update customers about mass outages. 
• BPU noted that PSEG never secured required road permits from the Village of Ridgewood.
• BPU Commissioner Joseph Fiordaliso said:

We’re not talking about rocket science here. You can short-circuit a lot of problems by communicating ... to the municipality and to the individuals who are going to be directly affected.

PSEG spokeswoman Karen Johnson, seemingly chastened, promised to communicate better in a November 2013 email:

This experience has reinforced to us the importance of communications with the communities in which we are building and upgrading facilities. We ... will continue to look at ways to improve the process to better assure that communities understand the rationale for projects and to allay any health and safety concerns in advance.

Port Washington, NY (April 2014).  PSEG installed 200 of the approximately 220 70-foot poles it planned along the five-mile project route to Great Neck. Ten percent of the overhead transmission wire was strung. Then a hearing was held. Residents reacted as follows:

• We want to protect the identity of the town. The town should look good, and not ugly like this.
• I’m petrified of this huge pole more than being without electricity.
• It’s horrible. The issue is do it the right way, and give people the chance to pay... before you start putting it up

David Daly, PSEG-Long Island's president and CEO, told Port Washington that "There is no option to stop the project," and that the lines could be buried later, but the cost of millions more would be passed on to customers, "as long as you want to pay for it." Utilities can "do what they want", said Gerald A. Norlander of New York’s Utility Project, a consumer group. However, he said, the NY State Department of Public Service can place limits on them. As a result of community opposition, Governor Andrew Cuomo's office has asked the Department of Public Service to review the PSEG-Long Island project.

Judi Bosworth, the supervisor of the Town of North Hempstead, which includes the project route, wonders whether Hurricane Sandy recovery funds could be used: "It seems to me that burying the wires is something that could qualify, and we plan to make a strong case for that." Michael Meenan of the Federal Emergency Management Agency said hurricane money could be available if burying the lines would reduce the likelihood of future damage and was cost-efficient. 

East Hampton, April 2014.   In January, PSEG began installing 267 of the 70-foot-long utility poles to cover six-and-a-half miles of transmission from East Hampton Village to Amagansett. The project halted in April when East Hampton Town issued a stop-work order at the Amagansett substation. PSEG failed to obtain site-plan approval or a building permit. PSEG filed a temporary restraining order, which was denied. It also filed for a permanent injunction against the town - decision still awaited at the State Supreme Court’s Appellate Division in Brooklyn. 

East Hampton Town Supervisor Larry Cantwell said East Hampton would not borrow money to bury the lines, but wanted PSEG to give East Hampton the same deal as the Town of Southampton, where PSEG paid for burying 23/33 kV transmission lines by adding a charge to customers’ bills. Cantwell said:

We wanted to be involved in the energy-alternative process, and not be handed a fait accompli. ... There could have been a better job of presenting this to the public for discussion, and perhaps alternatives could have worked out in advance of this happening.

Some Southampton customers have not paid the extra charge and PSEG has sued Southampton Town for the $200,000 in allegedly unpaid charges. 

The Utility 2.0 Plan

East Hampton residents, such as Debra Foster, have organized a "Save East Hampton" group around the “Bury the Lines” issue. We attended the hearing because of her work bringing it to our attention. Her groups entirely right that the Utility 2.0 Plan does not incorporate the promise made by PSEG after the BPU reprimand in 2013. It should do so and PSEG should respect the promise.

This is not our first rodeo. We were at the 820 mW Shoreham plant in the 1980s, protesting the folly of nuclear power in an area where there was no safe escape route in the event of an emergency and no safe exit for nuclear waste. The venerable Long Island Lighting Company (LILCO) was founded in 1911 by Ellis Phillips, an engineer. LILCO spent 20 years building the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant, but never gave enough credence to community opposition. Ultimately, public pressure brought Shoreham and LILCO to an end in 1989, under Governor Mario Cuomo. The $5.5 billion plant was eventually dismantled before it ever operated.

So it should not be an impossible dream for East Hampton residents to take down all of the 267 poles and bury the lines. The problem is that LIPA and the Governor make environmental commitments to customers that PSEG then mocks. East Hampton has been celebrated in the Governor's Comprehensive Energy Vision as a leader in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. The Town should be treated like a leader.

PSEG's Utility 2.0 plan seems to be moving PSEG toward building seven new fossil-fuel power plants on Eastern Long Island, is inconsistent with decisions by local residents. East Hampton has pledged itself to be 100 percent independent of fossil fuel by 2020, and 100 percent dependent instead on renewable energy - solar, wind, geothermal, batteries. Utility 2.0 should be redesigned to be consistent with East Hampton Town's own plans. 

We urge FEMA to finance the removal of the poles and burial of the transmission wires, and we ask PSEG and the Town and other levels of government to participate in a joint effort to increase public safety and save East Hampton by burying electric, telephone and cable wires.

SANDY | Compared with Katrina

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has "raised eyebrows" with his claim that Superstorm Sandy suffered worse property damage than Katrina. The New York Times today sorta debunked this claim with a side-by-side comparison of the two storms, although on electrical outages Sandy wins hands down.

No question that Katrina was a worse storm by meteorological standards, and the deaths were much greater, which Governor Cuomo concedes. What he argued (based on my having seen the replay of his remarks on MSNBC) is that the scope of the damage was greater. He didn't actually say that the  dollar value of the damage in New York, New Jersey and the other states that have been hit by Sandy is greater. Let's look at an updated chart of the top 20 storms in the U.S. since 1900 in current dollars.

	Top 20 U.S. Storms Since 1900, 2012 $
		DAMAGE
RANK	STORM NAME	Bil. 2012 $	YEAR
1	Great Miami	$180.22	1926
2	Galveston	$105.57	1900
3	Galveston	$84.91	1915
4	Katrina	$84.62	2005
5	Andrew	$64.41	1992
6	Storm 11, SW FL	$53.94	1944
7	Donna	$49.81	1960
8	New England	$46.84	1938
9	Lake Okeechobee	$44.89	1928
10	Wilma	$25.96	2005
11	Hazel	$24.26	1954
12	Diane	$24.11	1955
13	Camille	$23.04	1969
14	Charley	$20.38	2004
15	Ike	$20.37	2008
16	Hugo	$20.02	1989
17	Carol	$19.29	1954
18	Agnes	$19.01	1972
19	Ivan	$18.59	2004
20	Storm 2	$18.51	1949

Source: Roger Pielke Jr.'s blogsite

In my recent posts I attempted to update a 2010 table of the top storms. Through a  comment on my last post I was sent to this table, for which I am grateful. It is updated by the person who prepared the original table, Roger Pielke, Jr. The method he uses is described in a 2008 paper cited in the footnote to the table in last post. I cited this work frequently in examining the Hurricane Irene damage data. The numbers above are easy to use. Just plug in a number for the estimated damage in current dollars and you have the ranking of Superstorm Sandy in fair historical terms.

If you add together the $32.8 billion New York damage and the $29.4 New Jersey damage, the $62.2 billion total takes you to the #6 spot. Definitely, the NY $9.1 billion aid request for flood surge prevention (and the New Jersey equivalent) should be excluded from the total.

Pielke argues that to be consistent, one should also exclude from damage numbers any business interruption costs, because storm damage estimates historically only included the value of destroyed assets. If business interruption is excluded, much of  the $62.2 billion will be excluded. But there are other states affected by Sandy (the Connecticut shoreline was badly hit in some places), and adding in their damage will top up the final number.

Where I come out is this:
1. There is a bias against long-ago storm-damage numbers, but there is also the bias of ignorance that governments operated under 112 years ago. They knew less about weather patterns and were less prepared. So in comparing the viciousness of the storms, they seem less terrible today for the same level of severity because we know how to prepare. If no one was ready for Superstorm Sandy, can anyone doubt that the death rates would have been much higher along the shore - more than 200 miles of shoreline from Cape May through to Montauk?

2. Adjusting for inflation is a no-brainer. But Pielke has adjusted for more than that, for the value of property because of rising density. Someone could argue he has over-adjusted.

3. Katrina was recent, so the business-interruption problem doesn't apply. Recent practice is for business-interruption and loss-of-use to be insurable and to be a legitimate damage. Think of it this way: When your house collapses in a storm, you have two problems. One is you need to rebuild. The second is that you need a place to stay. Insurance companies tend to pay for both. The same applies to business. If my store is flooded, I lose inventory and I have to spend money repairing electrical wiring and walls etc. Meanwhile I also lose business while I am fussing about these problems. Insurance policies tend to pay for both of these problems. I think that business-interruption is  reasonable damage cost to include in these estimates.

4. But Governor Cuomo's request for $9.1 billion relates to a different kind of problem. The storm reveals inadequacy in the infrastructure and makes it imperative to address it. Think of the homeowner whose house is destroyed. The town decides not to let the beach-dwellers rebuild, or to require higher standards of construction. The town may offer the homeowner some compensation for what amounts to a taking way of a right to use of property. But an insurance company could refuse to reinsure, which might amount to the same thing if a homeowner needed to borrow to rebuild (banks typically want their mortgaged properties to be insured). The point is that remediation of adverse conditions is not a new piece of damage - the damage merely exposed a problem that was there all along. That's why I don't think it should be included in damage estimates.

Bottom line, I think that the damage caused by Katrina was similar to that caused by Sandy, apart from loss of life where there is no comparison. The reason is that Sandy affected a larger area and it hit two of the five biggest business central business districts in the nation - downtown and much of midtown.

It may not be social justice, but economics uses the yardstick of dollars rather than windspeed or pain and suffering. Governor Cuomo may have a case that the dollar value of the cost of damage to property was greater for Sandy. A counterargument is that the levees were broken around New Orleans and that will take a huge amount to replace. But isn't the additional cost similar to the problem with flood prevention in New York? To rebuild the levees, they will have to be higher and stronger. It's not just the damage we are talking about, it's the revelation that prior defenses were inadequate. The whole issue of infrastructure "needs" is hugely important, but it is separate from the assessment of damage as traditionally computed.

SANDY | NY-NJ Cost–$62.2 Billion

Ocean County had the largest number
of "affected" houses. But Cape May
was the worst hit relative to population.
Source: CityEconomist, from FEMA data.

Governor Christie of New Jersey announced late yesterday (7:41 pm posted on Philly.com) that the cost  of Superstorm Sandy so far for his state are $29.4 billion. So that is $62.2 billion for the two hardest-hit states, adding in $32.8 billion for NY. The subsequent addition of $9.1 billion for NY by Governor Cuomo for flood surge prevention doesn't belong in the damage column.

We know that some counties within New Jersey were much harder hit than others, although every county in the state was declared FEMA-eligible. The worst-hit counties are Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean and Monmouth - i.e., the four southeastern coastal counties.

The $29.4 billion New Jersey cost will be borne by state taxpayers, the Federal Government and private businesses and individuals. Every one of the various forms of coverage of these costs comes with a price tag. The question is who pays for them and when. For a national calamity, the nation steps up to pay some of the bills.
- Private insurance will cover some of the (1) property damage above the deductible and (2) business interruption and loss of use. But coverage will be harder to get in future; deductibles will rise; premiums will increase. The NYC Comptroller's Office showed that how this happened after 9/11. It makes sense that casualty insurance companies over time have to match their premiums to their claims, especially when interest income is low, so some of the premium hikes are reasonable.
 - If private utilities are self-insured or their premiums go up, they will use this in their rate base when they apply for rate increases.
- Government payouts at all levels will have to be financed from the expense budget or with bonds. Either way, they impose a budgetary burden now and later.
- The Small Business Administration loan program will either collect back from businesses or will have to absorb the loss and get funding from the federal budget.
- FEMA and the flood insurance program within its umbrella will need to get more federal funding for amounts not already set aside for claims.
- The uninsured and unreimbursed portion of losses will be absorbed by individual businesses or households. In New Jersey alone, FEMA has recorded more than 70,000 homes "affected" by Sandy. Many of these homes will be expensive to repair or rebuild. Many are uninsured because insurance may have been hard to get or too expensive.
- Because of the high costs of rebuilding infrastructure, rebuilding near water may become more difficult. Private homeowners may see their property values decline.

Within all the big numbers are many private tragedies, people who are faced with bills they can't pay or rebuilding that they may not be permitted to do. As usual, small businesses and struggling households are the hardest hit. Only a few get attention in the media. Americans help their neighbors in time of need. In the end, we all bear some of the cost but some people bear more than their share.