NY STATE | County Deaths from COVID (2)

April 3, 2020—In one week, the death rate from COVID-19 per 100,000 population tripled in New York City. It was between 5.5 and 5.8 deaths per 100,000 population in the Bronx, Staten Island (Richmond County) and Queens, and was 3.2 to 3.5 in Brooklyn and Manhattan. See prior post, one week ago.

Rockland again had the highest death rate outside of New York City, rising from 1.6 to 13.5, a huge increase of nearly tenfold. Nassau, which had been behind Suffolk last week, rose from 0.7 deaths per 100,000 to 10.3, an increase of nearly 15-fold. Suffolk's death rate rose five-fold. Westchester's death rate rose from 0.1 per 100,000 to 7.1, a 71-fold increase...

Sources: New York Times Interactive for population data except NYS and NYC, Cases per 100,000 pop. and Deaths. NY State Population from World Population Review as of 2020-02-17, retrieved 2020-04-03.  NY City population as of 2019, Census estimate. Death rates computed by JTM.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has found the same pattern emerging in the United States as has prevailed in other countries in Asia and Europe, namely the hardest hit are the older age groups.

Especially vulnerable are those 85 and older, for whom the death rate is more than 10 percent of the number of confirmed cases.

This is why so many cases and deaths are being found in nursing homes.

NEW YORK STATE | County Deaths from COVID (1)

This table is updated on April 3, 2020.

March 27, 2020–As of yesterday, Bronx County (Borough of The Bronx) was the epicenter of coronavirus fatalities, within the New York City epicenter. 

It had suffered 5.8 deaths per 100,000 population, the highest rate of the large counties. 

The table shows all the New York counties with 300,000 population or more. NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo's observation that density is a key predictor of the spread of the virus is generally valid. However, within the five counties/boroughs of New York City, the fatalities may be affected by where people work, where they live and where they are hospitalized. 

The data in the table should be watched as an indicator of how the virus is spreading within the state and how hospitals are being challenged by lack of masks, testing kits and ventilators. New York State this week is where other states may be in three weeks.

RETIREES | Gray-Dependent U.S. Counties

The Tax Foundation, which often encourages states to lower their taxes, produces many comparative tables that interest me.

This week it compares U.S. counties  based on the percentage of the revenues of residents derived from retirement income.

The data from 2012 IRS records include all forms of taxable pensions including Social Security and distributions from IRA accounts.

The interactive map on the web site allows you to get county data by floating your cursor over a map of the USA. (Counties with very small populations are excluded.)

The three most gray-dependent (my term) counties are, naturally, in Florida - Sumter (45.6 percent dependent on retirement income), Charlotte (33.8 percent) and Citrus (33.2 percent) counties, all on Florida's Gulf coast. Northern Michigan and the Pacific Northwest are the other two areas of the United States that are the most gray-dependent.

On the Atlantic Coast side of Florida, the most gray-dependent county is Flagler (29 percent). The other counties along the coast that are at least 20 percent dependent on retirement incomes are Volusia, Brevard, Indian River and St. Lucie.

WEBSITES | Best Five City/County Sites

New York City's web site - http://www.nyc.gov/ - is by far the most popular local government web site in the United States, based on visits to the sites. As of August 2007, New York City's site had a 7.3 percent market share. It is more than three times as popular as the next-most-visited site, according to Hitwise.

The next most popular was Miami-Dade County, with 2.2 percent. Next, surprisingly, is not the City of Los Angeles but rather its Sheriff's Department. The City of Chicago ranks fourth and the Maricopa County (Phoenix) court system is fifth.

Rank. Name of Locality - Web Site - Market Share
1. City of New York - http://www.nyc.gov/ - 7.32%
2. Miami-Dade County - http://www.miamidade.gov/ - 2.20%
3. Los Angeles Sheriff's Department http://www.lasd.org/ 1.65%
4. City of Chicago http://www.cityofchicago.org/ 1.62%
5. Maricopa County, Arizona - Superior Court of
Arizona - http://www.superiorcourt.maricopa.gov/ 1.52%
Source: Hitwise

NYC | Just a C for Growth? (Comment)

August 31, 2007–A Business Council study compares the 2005 economy with the 1995 economy... and says NYC rates a C. The study is reported on here: New York City and State Lag in Economic Growth (NY Sun).

Comment

The Business Council has done some great work, e.g., on workers' compensation. But this study - c'mon. Who are we do believe–the Council or our own lying eyes?

Do the authors remember that the City of New York was attacked by terrorists on September 11 and the business community was on the edge of a diaspora? The fact that NYC has bounced back since 9/11 is impressive.

Perhaps NYC should be grateful to get a C since the study gives a good portion of the group to which NYC is compared (i.e., the upstate counties) an F.

But there is a deep flaw embedded in the study. It uses five variables and compares each county with the nation. Three of the five variables–population, jobs and total personal incomes–are biased against dense counties like the five boroughs of NYC, which are harder to grow from a population or jobs standpoint. It's easier for populations to grow rapidly from tiny numbers in the deserts of Arizona and Nevada counties than it is in a settled city like New York. However, NYC has its own upstate reservoir while the desert communities depend for their water on snow falling in distant states.

The value of residential and commercial real estate is one test of the City's economic magnetism. The recovery and growth of values since 9/11 speaks for itself.

What may happen in the future to Wall Street jobs and incomes and the value of real estate given the collapse of the subprime lending industry is another matter. It is as true today as it was in the 1980s that the City's economy is highly dependent for its performance on Wall Street's brains and skills. But meanwhile don't slam the City with unfair comparisons. Give it an A for its recovery from the disheartening months after 9/11.