TARIFFS | How Are They All Working Out?

Tariffs have not lowered the trade deficit so far.

August 3, 2018–The Trump Administration is now more than year and a half into its program to improve the U.S. balance of trade in goods and services.

 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported this morning that the goods and services deficit was $46.3 billion in June, up $3.2 billion from $43.2 billion in May, revised.

Year-to-date (see chart), the goods and services deficit increased $19.6 billion, or 7.2 percent, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $103.6 billion or 9.0 percent. Imports increased $123.2 billion or 8.6 percent.

June exports were down from May by $1.5 billion to $213.8 billion. June imports were up from May by $1.6 billion to $260.2 billion. The June increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.1 billion to $68.8 billion and virtually no change in the services surplus to $22.5 billion.

The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm

Metro Area Incomes Show Impact of Higher Oil Prices

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released data on 2007 personal income by metro area.

The big story is told in the middle section of the country. Around the Gulf of Mexico, incomes are up - partly because of aid to Katrina-hit areas, but more broadly because of the higher incomes that have accompanied higher oil prices.

These higher oil prices have devastated the Mid-West metro areas around the Great Lakes that live by manufacturing and are linked to the automobile industry or to other products that use energy.

We see a vivid picture of the massive economic shift away from manufacturing and toward energy. The next U.S. President will be the person who can offer hope to the depressed economies of the Mid-West.

Federal Spending on Statistics

The Web site of the Economics and Statistics Administration of the U.S. Department of Commerce opens with: "Due to budgetary constraints, the Economics Indicators Service will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008." This sounded serious to me. Forbes awarded EconomicIndicators.gov one of its "Best of the Web" for public service. I was ready to believe the worst, because the Bush Administration has been short-changing Federal data collection programs. Maurine Haver of Haver Analytics has long been concerned about underfunding of these programs. For example:
The United States has moved from the old SIC manufacturing-based code to the new NAICS code, which requires that Census collect more data on employment and wages in the services industry, but the administration hasn't provided the needed new funding.
The CPI numbers are suspect in part because the housing sample hasn’t grown with the growth of housing since 1990.
Some critics of the administration are concerned that data collection is being starved because advisers to the President only want to put out good news. However, on second look, the fact is that the ESA and the web site that is closing are duplicative of FedStats and the websites of the agencies - BEA, Census and BLS, which provide similar services and cover a much broader number of series (ESA doesn't cover the CPI and payroll employment numbers from the BLS).
So more support for Federal statistics is crucial, but in the real world of scarce resources the money spent for ESA's website might well be rechanneled to the Census Bureau.