Friday, September 5, 2014

JOBS | Disappointing in August

No breakout in job creation.
Nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 142K in August, a break in a six-month series of 200K+ job increases, the BLS has just reported.

The predictions were for a 220-230K increase.

Both the August unemployment rate of 6.1 percent and the number of unemployed persons, 9.6 million, were little changed from July.

Some commentators were hoping for a 6.0 percent unemployment rate, or even sub-6.0 percent.

However, to look at the bright or hopeful side:
  • The August unemployment rate was down by 1.1 percentage points from August 2013.
  • The number of unemployed persons was reduced by 1.7 million from August 2013.
  • As I said earlier this week, the post-Labor Day employment figures will reflect the back-to-work scene better, as well as the net effect of educational hiring.
  • The Fed meanwhile gets no encouragement to hike interest rates quickly.
  • Eyes will be on the next release on October 3.

October 3 - The September job numbers - more reliable than August because the dust settles in the educational arena - were revised upward for both July and August, narrowing the gap between the predictions and the BLS-reported numbers. The BLS report for September also showed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent, in line with some predictions for the August numbers. The BLS seems to be catching up to the forecasters.  

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