JOBS | Trump Compared with Obama, GW Bush, Clinton

May 8, 2020, 8:45 am—Three and a half years ago, in December 2016, this blogpost reviewed two numbers important for working-age Americans, the unemployment rate and the employment-population ratio, for the prior three administrations. These are seasonally adjusted monthly numbers. This post updates the records of the last four presidents.

1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

	Bill Clinton 1993-2001	G. W. Bush 2001-2009	Barack Obama 2009-2017	Donald Trump 2017-April 2020
Unemployment Rate, last prior full month, percent, s.a.	7.4	3.9	7.3	4.7
Unemployment Rate, last full month, percent, s.a.	3.9	7.3	4.7	14.7
Change, percentage points (– = rise)	3.5	-3.4	2.6	-10.0

In December 2016, the last full month of President Obama's administration, the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed, 7.5 million, divided by the labor force (employed + unemployed), i.e., 159.6 million—4.7 percent.

The unemployment rate rose under President Trump to 14.7 percent in April 2020, an increase of 10 percentage points. The New York City Comptroller earlier this week projected an unemployment rate for NY City of 22 percent in June.

President Obama's last full-month 4.7 percent unemployment rate compares with 7.3 percent in December 2009, the last month of President George W. Bush's administration. That is a reduction of 2.6 percentage points.

This is turn compares with an increase in the unemployment rate of 3.4 percentage points during President G.W. Bush's administration and a decrease of 3.5 percentage points during President Clinton's administration. 

2. THE EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO

	Bill Clinton 1993-2001	G. W. Bush 2001-2009	Barack Obama 2009-2017	Donald Trump 2017-April 2020
Employment-Population Ratio, last prior full month, percent, s.a.	61.4	64.4	61.0	59.8
Employment-Population Ratio, last full month, percent, s.a.	64.4	61.0	59.8	51.3
Change during administration, percentage points (– = decline)	3.0	-3.4	-1.2	-8.5

The December 2016 Employment-Population Ratio was 59.8 percent. It fell to 51.3 percent in April, a decline of 8.5 percentage points from March. This is the lowest rate and largest over-the-month decline in the history of the series, which dates back to 1948. The employment-population ratio is defined by the BLS as the number of employed people, 152.1 million, divided by the civilian noninstitutional population, 254.5 million.

Trump visits Obama, 2016  

The Employment-Population Ratio has certain advantages as a labor market measure over the unemployment rate. It is a more reliable indicator over time because it is unaffected by variations in interviews, sampling, telecommunications preferences or definitions of the unemployed. 

In December 1992 when President Clinton came to office, the employment-population rate had been falling and was at 61.4 percent. It rose during his administration to 64.3 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points. Under President G. W. Bush, the rate fell by 3.3 percentage points to 61.0 percent. Under President Obama the rate fell further to 59.7 percent, a drop of 1.3 percentage points. 

On both measures, as of April 2020 the last two Democratic administrations outperformed both the Bush 43 and Trump administrations.