JOBS | Are Older Workers Keeping Jobs from Younger Ones?

Although not as high as European rates of >50%, the 

USA suffers from 17% youth unemployment. 

Chart by Atlantic Cities.

Before she discovered that the United States was tapping her phone and emails, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rated youth unemployment as "the biggest crisis facing Europe."

In Britain nearly one million young people are jobless. The talk in the UK is of a "lost generation" of workers, as lack of jobs creates mental-health problems in this age cohort.

The nonprofit MindFull says that 850,000 UK children, one-third of the age group, suffers from a mental-health problems and many more suffer from anxiety and depression.

Mental-health problems represent the largest single cause of disability in the UK, 23 percent of the NHS burden. Yet the NHS is spending only 1 percent of its budget addressing the causes of mental health problems, according to a member of Parliament, Nicky Morgan. The main concerns of young people in the UK are school stresses (54 percent), worrying about the future (53 percent), and feeling inadequate (52 percent).

Are Older Workers Crowding Out Younger Ones? In General, No

Like Europe, the United States has high unemployment among its young people. At the same time, with the asset meltdown in 2008, baby boomers who expected to retire at 60 or 62 have stayed on to keep working past 65. They can't afford to retire. The United States ranks third in the world for hiring over-65 workers, after Japan and Singapore. There is no maximum age for retirement, although specific jobs have age limits, like some judges in New York State.

The persistence of older workers in their jobs has been cited as a reason for high unemployment among youth. Some employers are concerned about the lack of intake of younger people and offer "buyout" arrangements – for example, extra credit toward retirement – to encourage elderly workers to retire so that more younger workers can be recruited.

But is the retaining of older workers really the reason for high unemployment of younger workers? According to a study cited by the UK Parliament, there is no evidence that older workers who stay on the job longer squeeze out opportunities for younger employees. The study by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College says that there may be situations where older employees crowd out younger workers in some companies or areas, but not across the workforce at large.

The report examined employment and unemployment rates, wages, and hours worked in all 50 states over time (1977-2011) for three different age groups: 20-24 ("young"), 25-54 ("prime-aged"), and 55-64 ("old"). There was a wide variation among the states in all measures.

If older workers were hampering the prospects of younger ones, states with higher employment or wages among older workers would also lead to higher unemployment or lower wages among younger workers. But it wasn't so.

The report also looked at levels of employment both before and during the Great Recession and found:

• No support for the idea that the Recession changed the relative opportunities for younger and older workers. 
• Evidence that the Great Recession did affect overall unemployment rates and wages, but no support for the idea that employment among older workers affected opportunities for younger workers.
• Employment among younger workers was instead influenced by their education and skill levels, and by whether these workers were employed in the service or manufacturing industries. 
• Younger workers may have needed to migrate to job opportunities in new locations or industries, particularly as the Great Recession ended many manufacturing jobs.

Why Employment Moves Together among Young and Old

It makes sense that having elderly people work as long as they can may be good for the country and region, and for young people. If workers stay on in the workforce, it:

• Reduces the burden on pension systems, many of which are underfunded. 
• Makes it more likely that consumption and therefore the economy will remain strong. 
• Helps retain jobs that would be lost if older people who are successful at what they do and know how to serve their customers stop working. 
• Enables entrepreneurial older people to generate ideas that result in hiring of more young people as trainees and partners.

Workers at the two ends of the age spectrum are not substitutes, they are complements.

Voting - GOTV for deB in Chelsea NYC

GOTV volunteers for Bill de Blasio making phone calls from NY State Sen. 
Brad Hoylman's Office at 14th St. and 8th Ave. Photo by JT Marlin.

Political upsets are most likely to occur in races where the turnout is low and one side has a better GOTV operation.

GOTV is both the first and the last phase of all political campaigns.

In the first phase of GOTV, names and contact information of supporters are sought, to:
- raise money,
- recruit volunteers and
- generate a list of people to call on election day, to remind them to vote and offer a lift to the polls.

The first volunteer-led computer database for a presidential campaign was I believe by the Gary Hart techies in 1987-88. I contributed my own Kaypro to the effort and I wrote an article on the innovative campaign for a local newspaper. If anyone who reads this is interested, I will be glad to hunt down the article.

In the final GOTV phase, the fundraising and volunteers are in place and the main remaining task is to remind people to vote and either take them to the polls or obtain commitments from them that they will go there on their own.

In the New York City mayoral election, what has been happening this past weekend is the culmination of the GOTV effort, namely getting commitments to vote and reminding people to vote.

Information on Campaign Organization and Issues

FYI, Wikipedia has the equivalent of a short course in political campaigning, under the following headings:

• Campaign Finance - Grassroots fundraising
• Management - Oppo(sition) research - Consultation
• Message - Advertising -  Canvassing  - Election promise - GOTV - Lawn/store signs
• Negative campaigning - Attack ad - Fear mongering - Push poll - Smear campaign - Voter suppression

The Get-Out-The-Vote effort has an important side benefit for pollsters in helping to ensure that their predictions are accurate. Pollsters ask respondents questions to determine both "How likely are you to vote?" and "How likely are you to vote for Bill de Blasio?" and they weight responses accordingly. The more likely a respondent is to vote, and the more certain the respondent is that he-she will vote for de Blasio, the more confident the pollster is in the results.

But in the end, the voter has to make it a priority to vote on election day, and without a strong internal conscience or an external reminder, an election that is expected to have a small turnout could end up being a tossup.

Chelsea, NYC, 2013

As a chronicler of political activity in the Chelsea neighborhood, I have participated in the GOTV effort today. I was invited by de Blasio headquarters to contact the Chelsea district campaign office to help them in the area where I live. This is a phone bank and rallying point for canvassing operations in the area. One chooses a time slot such as 10 am to 1 pm or 1-4 pm or 4-7 pm). Then one shows up at the office, where one is either sent out to do canvassing with a list of apartments in a building to call on, or one is given a list of phone numbers to call. (The local club, the Chelsea Reform Democratic Club, chose to show its presence by setting up at Eighth Avenue and 23rd Street. It had campaigned for Christine Quinn in the primary.)

Mary Duggan, my GOTV partner canvassing

Penn South for de Blasio et al..

Mary Duggan and I were sent up to a building in Penn South, where I discovered for the first time after living in the neighborhood for 42 years that some of the numbers on the Penn South buildings are based on their position on the cross streets and others on their position Eighth or Ninth Avenue. That's why 280 Ninth is north, not south, of 365 (which is on Ninth, but takes its address from the nearest cross street).

The building we were assigned to has eight apartments per floor. About half of the apartments were designated pro-deBlasio based on prior phone calls. The landslide Democratic primary victory for de Blasio was organized almost totally from Brooklyn headquarters because the Manhattan clubs were working for Quinn, Thompson or (in the case of the Village Independent Democrats) Liu.

On each floor, at least one person answered the doorbell. In the other cases, we left literature promoting de Blasio for Mayor, Letitia James for Public Advocate, Scott Stringer for Comptroller and Gale Brewer for Manhattan Borough President. Someone already seems to have left literature on de Blasio in the building, but a second flyer lets the occupants know that they were visited again.

At the end of the building canvass, we had a few names of additional people who might be volunteers, and some commitments to vote on Tuesday. I brought back the detailed report on our canvass for use in phone calling on the day of the election. I volunteered to canvass the building where I live if the de Blasio campaign is able to get to me the same information that we were given for the Penn South canvass. I just don't want to knock on GOP doors.

The other thing I have volunteered to do is observe poll-opening as an official inspector from the local club or the de Blasio campaign on Tuesday morning.

This is democracy where the wheels hit the road.

Voting - Last-minute donors are buying "stock at 52-week high"

De Blasio and Early Supporters, Brooklyn. Photo by JT Marlin.

Crains Insider has an inform-ative story by Andrew Hawkins about real estate developers resignedly writing checks, for the max allowable, to mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio -- even though it is late, one week before the election and de Blasio is a shoo-in with a 45-percentage-point spread between him and Joe Lhota.

What impressed me most about the article was a campaign contributor's acknowledging that late giving to a candidate was not buying much, that it was like "buying a stock at its 52-week high", as opposed to important early volunteering and money that paid for de Blasio's advertising campaign. The EMILY in "Emily's List" stands for "Early Money Is Like Yeast."

Both labor unions and real estate contributors mostly put their early bets on Christine Quinn or Bill Thompson. Polls as of February showed Quinn ahead three to one, with de Blasio just one percentage point behind Thompson, and I noted that de Blasio had the advantage of incumbency. But then Anthony Weiner shot into first place, showing that enthusiasm for front-runners Quinn and Thompson was weak. So when Weiner's campaign faded, de Blasio's ad featuring Dante Blasio and his Afro provided the boost for de Blasio to take Weiner's place in the lead. After de Blasio won the Democratic primary outright, it became clear that Joe Lhota was battling against a huge spread in the polls. Lhota's attack ad on crime got nothing for him, as de Blasio added five percentage points to his lead. So the campaign cash is now flooding in to de Blasio's campaign.

The final debate between de Blasio and Lhota is on Wednesday evening (sandwiched between the anniversary of Sandy on Tuesday and Halloween on Thursday) from 7 to 8 pm on NBC-TV.

Women Gulf War Vets Doing Better Finding Jobs, Men Not

During the last year - higher rate of
unemployment of male vets.

Based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, more jobs are being found by male veterans who did not serve in wartime and by male non-veterans. But those who served are not having such luck. Their unemployment rates during the last year have been rising for every period of service.

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Dear Reader -

This is cross-posted from the Warriors-Families blogsite, a Beta Site for the Warrior Family Foundation. The WFF is now:

• Creating its official (alpha) site at www.warriorfamily.org. 
• Initiating some informational events starting November 14 in New York City. 

To provide us with feedback and be added to our list of invitees for various events, please contact me at teppermarlin@warriorfamily.org.

John Tepper Marlin 
Chief Economist and Beta Blogsite Manager
Warrior Family Foundation.

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The good news is that unemployment rates are lower among male vets than the non-veteran population, although (1) this is not true for the youngest vets, the Gulf War II cohort, and (2) some part of the explanation is not such good news, i.e., the portion of veterans whose service-related disabilities have forced them out of the labor force.

During the past year, the unemployment rate of wartime male veterans has increased for every period of service. It has declined from 6 percent to 5.1 percent for male veterans of non-wartime service. It has also declined for non-veterans.

Unemployment Rate % - Men Vets by Service vs. Non-Vets (BLS Table A-5)
Veteran status, service period
	Sept.	Sept.
	2012	2013	Change
VETERANS, 18 years and over	5.9	6.3	0.4
Gulf War-era II veterans	8.0	9.7	1.7
Gulf War-era I veterans	5.1	5.7	0.6
World War II, Korean War, and Vietnam-era veterans	5.3	5.5	0.2
Veterans of other service periods	6.0	5.1	-0.9
NONVETERANS, 18 years and over	7.5	7.1	-0.4

Source: BLS Household Survey for September 2013, released October 22, 2013.

Women vets from both Gulf Wars, and

those who did not serve in wartime, and

non-veteran women, have all been finding

more jobs during the last year. Older women vets

have not.

Female veterans below a certain age are faring much better. For those who served in either of the two Gulf War period, their unemployment rates have come down substantially during the past year. Those who served in Gulf War I are particularly fortunate, with an unemployment rate that fell from 19.9 percent to 11.6 percent. The improvement is also true for women vets who did not serve in wartime, and for non-veterans.

However, older women vets who served in WWII or the Korean or Vietnam wars have not seen the same improvement in their job-seeking success. Their unemployment rate rose slightly.

Unemployment Rate % - Women Vets by Service
vs. Non-Vets (BLS Table A-5)
Veteran status, service period
	Sept.	Sept.
	2012	2013	Change
VETERANS, 18 years and over	13.2	7.5	-5.7
Gulf War-era II veterans	19.9	11.6	-8.3
Gulf War-era I veterans	15.9	4.3	-11.6
World War II, Korean War, and Vietnam-era veterans	5.0	5.5	0.5
Veterans of other service periods	7.2	6.6	-0.6
NONVETERANS, 18 years and over	7.3	6.5	-0.8

Source: BLS Household Survey for September 2013, released October 22, 2013.

De Blasio v. Lhota - The Issues, 2 weeks before Election

At the Harvard Club of New York yesterday, two surrogates for the mayoral candidates battled it out. Both were Democrats, and both are crossovers from other candidates, selected by the two campaigns.

Senator Brad Hoylman

Senator Brad Hoylman. Speaking for Bill de Blasio was NY State Senator Brad M. Hoylman, a 1989 Rhodes Scholar from West Virginia who went on to Harvard Law School after receiving his M.Phil. from Oxford. Hoylman is a past President of Gay and Lesbian Independent Democrats, picking up Sen. Tom Duane's seat when Duane resigned. Hoylman previously served as Executive Vice President and General Counsel of the New York City Partnership. Hoylman supported Christine Quinn in the Primary, and is supporting de Blasio as the choice of the Democratic Party in New York City.

Randy M. Mastro, Esq.

Mr. Randy Mastro. Mastro is 11 years senior to Hoylman based on college graduation and is a New York City native. Mastro supported both Thompson and Lhota in the two party primaries, although he identifies himself as a Democrat. He is co-chair of Gibson Dunn’s Litigation Practice Group, named “The Litigation Department of the Year” by the American Lawyer. Comments from peer reviews: Mastro “deserves an Academy Award” for “bringing a sense of drama and theater to his courtroom appearances.” “You REALLY don’t want to meet him in a lighted courtroom." In 1994-1998, Mr. Mastro served as Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s Chief of Staff and then Deputy Mayor for Operations. He oversaw all of the City’s operating agencies and budget, and served as the Mayor’s chief liaison with elected officials. Previously, in 1985-1989, Mr. Mastro served as Assistant U.S. Attorney and Deputy Chief of the Civil Division. He graduated cum laude from Yale College and the University of Pennsylvania Law School, where he was the school’s moot court champion. Mr. Mastro served as law clerk to Justice Alan B. Handler of the New Jersey Supreme Court. In 1982-1985, he was a litigation associate at Cravath, Swaine & Moore. He chaired two New York City Charter Revision Commissions.

The Issues

The following issues are in the order they were brought up at the Q&A session after the two surrogates for de Blasio and Lhota made introductory remarks.  Some of the arguments below showed more sophistication than the exchange in the NY Times at the end of August.

Charter Schools.  Hoylman - Mr. de Blasio is on record as wanting to charge the charter schools rent for use of the public schools. Charter schools disrupt the public schools they operate in sometimes, and some of them take bathrooms, for example, out of commission for the public school students. They take resources away from public schools. Mastro - Mr. Lhota wants to double the number of charter schools. Bill de Blasio shows lack of support for the charter schools experiment.

The Debt and the Budget.  Hoylman - Mayor de Blasio would meet the City's fiscal obligations; he has to balance the budget. Mastro - Would de Blasio be able to look the unions in the eye after they have worked to elect him? Lhota could be tougher because he owes the unions nothing. Bloomberg has just kicked the union issue down the road. Right now they have zero increases. When the percentages are written in, there will be a huge retroactive budget increase, which means less money for other services or higher taxes.

Climate Change (Hoylman Scores Big).  The environmental questions were about siting of a marine transfer station on the upper west side and the mayor's position on fracking.  Hoylman - It's time that Manhattan took on some of the burden of its own garbage - for too long garbage has been trucked to Staten Island and the other outer boroughs. On fracking, we need a study to investigate the safety of the process and in the meantime we need a moratorium. Mastro - There are limits to what a mayor can do for the environment. Bloomberg has certainly been in the vanguard, with new bike paths and parks and riverfront amenities. However, a marine transfer station next to Asphalt Green would affect the ability of poor kids to use the sports amenities in this area. On fracking, a "study" is a euphemism for doing nothing. Cuomo did the studies. Lhota won't feed voters with euphemisms. He is a straight talker. Besides, fracking is an upstate issue, isn't going to happen in NYC.  Hoylman - Upstate issue? Where, Mr. Mastro, do you think New York City's water comes from? We need a mayor who understands this, and respects upstate water if only because we drink it. We have enough natural gas to carry us through another look at what fracking is doing to our water table.

Sandinistas. Someone asked a leading question about de Blasio's support of the Sandinista rebels in Nicaragua many years ago. Hoylman - His visit to Nicaragua shows his concern with equality. He is still concerned with inequality in the United States and the fact that it is growing. It speaks to Bill de Blasio's character. Mastro - Yes, it speaks to de Blasio's character.

NYPD "Stop and Frisk" Policies (Mastro Scores).  Will your candidate abandon successful stop-and-frisk procedures because of the new court finding against it? Hoylman - a Federal judge says that the stop and frisk procedures need to be fixed. Mastro - Stop and frisk is perfectly constitutional.Giuliani's  NYPD did it. Now a federal judge wants to run the NYPD? Bill de Blasio says he won't appeal? It looks like we are going to go back to the days of consent decrees. But we are also going to have an independent inspector. And police officers are now subject to law suits if they make the wrong call on an arrest. Hoylman -  Mr. de Blasio supported the program that New York City was preparing to monitor the stop-and-frisk procedure. It might have obviated the need for the federal judge's decision. Mastro - Why is he saying he won't appeal the decision, when NYC has its own inspector? Why another? Why isn't he saying - This is my city and I don't need a judge trying to second-guess me and my police chief?  Hoylman - de Blasio would work with the judge. [Update: Mayor Bloomberg's appeal was heard and at he end of October the appellate court transferred the case to another judge, on the basis that the federal judge on the case had engaged in misconduct.]

Should We Worry That NYC Will Be Democrats All Round?  Hoylman - No. Equality of parties doesn't guarantee anything. The New York State Senate is balanced and the deadlock means nothing gets done. The last Democratic mayor was 20 years ago, before the Internet was invented. Mastro - We don't want deadlock but it is helpful to have tension. It generates debate. I am concerned that we have made so much progress since the 1990-1992 era that we forget what it was like when the Democrats had complete control.

Afterwards I joined a few people from the audience for dinner. I figured they were three-to-one Republicans. None of them appeared to be involved, or likely to be involved, in the election beyond voting. Two of them asked questions that were critical of de Blasio. I asked them why they weren't going to put their money or time behind Lhota.

"Too late. It's a done deal. What, a 50 percentage point lead, in the polls? We will have to live with Mayor de Blasio for four years." They drowned their sorrows, the Democrats celebrated, and the Harvard Club got some unexpected bar revenue on a Sunday evening...

ART BIZ | Vito DeVito, East Hampton

Vito DeVito (L) and John Tepper Marlin, before a

 DeVito painting. Photo by Alice Tepper Marlin.

I go to a lot of art exhibits at Ashawagh Hall in downtown Springs, East Hampton, where Old Stone Highway meets Springs Fireplace Road.

Good reason: Ashawagh Hall has some good exhibits and I track them.

Real reason: I pass by Ashawagh (Indian name for a crossroad) Hall several times a day when I am here.

This evening Alice and I popped in on a one-man show by Vito DeVito, a New York City native who lives in Sagaponack except for summers when he is in Norway, Maine. I like one-man shows. Only one artist to interview if I am blogging, and I get to know the person.

DeVito is not just an artist. He is an artist-entrepreneur. The reason most artists are "struggling" financially, even "starving"–is that they don't understand some key commercial aspects of their business. The worst of all situations is where artists are (in the words of Catholic doctrine) "invincibly ignorant"–they don't want to know what steps they could take to be commercially successful because it would compromise their artistic creativity. Quietum non movere.

Vito DeVito is an artist that I can't visualize being unsuccessful. He exudes self-confidence and busy-ness and customer engagement. In addition:

•  His art comes out of his own passion for creative work and his own love of nature. It's clear in everything he does. His fish and duck paintings look right when in motion and when still.
• He paints nature against recognizable local backdrops -- a big plus when it comes to making a sale.
• His backdrops are in the Town of East Hampton and for the past 25 years also in Maine, where he and his family have spent their summers. 
• Like Picasso, he reinvents himself so that he has different things to sell. He is a sculptor -- I love his group of birds -- as well as a painter. He has been trying out etchings -- not all as glamorous as his paintings -- and in BFF (his dog) he has tried to glam up the etchings by hand-coloring the dog's collar in red. I would like to see more of the hand-colored etchings.
• He sends out his framing to DeVito Framers in another room of his house. If it is raining he doesn't take the day off, he gets to work in his framing studio.
• The giclees of his paintings are done by DeVito Facsimiles Ltd. His Artist's Proofs have low numbers and one gets a sense of confidence from him that he handles the numbering rigorously so that collectors don't have to worry about a flood of new giclees or prints. 
• He knows how to sell to people most likely to buy, for the homes or offices of the well-to-do. Not many nudes in the exhibition -- I only saw one, called "Illicit Love" (not as good a painting, I thought, as his ducks). Corporate and family buyers prefer scenes of hunting, fishing, landscape, scenes from nature. He is in a lot of corporate collections.
• He knows about stratifying his market. He has made a bronze sculpture for $6,000, oils for around $3,000, giclees for $500, etchings for less than that. There is something for everyone.
• He has found a way to get paid up front, commissioned on demand, not only for portraits but for hunting scenes and ducks and fish. He works with hunting-and-fishing magazines and nonprofit organizations that ask him for specific animals or scenes and then they sell limited-edition lithographs or giclees.
• For most of the past 19 years he has received annual commissions from Duck Unlimited to do a Duck-of-the-Year. His work is in the collections of celebrities like Alec Baldwin, Billy Joel, Christie Brinkley, Mario Cuomo, John Zuccotti and Alfonse D'Amato. 

"The Power Below" painted for the Safari Club International.  

Photo by JT Marlin.

Here's an example of how Vito DeVito leverages his art. Those animals in the oil painting at left are thundering towards us. They appear to be wildebeeste in front of Mt. Kilimanjaro, so this is a recognizable scene in Kenya or Tanzania. The price tag on this is about  $3,000.

This is a strong painting, definitely conveying a threat as the beasts head toward you. A good macho painting for an executive's office. It says: "Lead, follow, or get out of the way!" It is also nicely framed. But should you need that $3,000 to put toward your daughter's tuition, DeVito has an option for you.

"The Power Below", numbered giclée. Photo by JT Marlin.

For one-sixth of the cost of the original oil painting, you can get a numbered and framed giclée of the painting. It's even hard to tell the difference between the giclee and the painting from an distance of a few feet.

Customer is happy. Artist is happier. Best he can get for an oil (based on posted prices) is about $5,000. But if he sells out a series of 100 giclées at $500 each, he can make $50,000. With the help of associations and  magazines, it is also easier to sell prints than original art work.

Vito DeVito is a 1975 graduate of Seton Hall University, which would place his 60th birthday in the near vicinity. He has a wife Laurie, a daughter Emma Ann and a son Drew. More about him at www.vitodevito.com. Contact him to order something at vitodevito@optonline.net.

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