Voting - Last-minute donors are buying "stock at 52-week high"

De Blasio and Early Supporters, Brooklyn. Photo by JT Marlin.

Crains Insider has an inform-ative story by Andrew Hawkins about real estate developers resignedly writing checks, for the max allowable, to mayoral candidate Bill de Blasio -- even though it is late, one week before the election and de Blasio is a shoo-in with a 45-percentage-point spread between him and Joe Lhota.

What impressed me most about the article was a campaign contributor's acknowledging that late giving to a candidate was not buying much, that it was like "buying a stock at its 52-week high", as opposed to important early volunteering and money that paid for de Blasio's advertising campaign. The EMILY in "Emily's List" stands for "Early Money Is Like Yeast."

Both labor unions and real estate contributors mostly put their early bets on Christine Quinn or Bill Thompson. Polls as of February showed Quinn ahead three to one, with de Blasio just one percentage point behind Thompson, and I noted that de Blasio had the advantage of incumbency. But then Anthony Weiner shot into first place, showing that enthusiasm for front-runners Quinn and Thompson was weak. So when Weiner's campaign faded, de Blasio's ad featuring Dante Blasio and his Afro provided the boost for de Blasio to take Weiner's place in the lead. After de Blasio won the Democratic primary outright, it became clear that Joe Lhota was battling against a huge spread in the polls. Lhota's attack ad on crime got nothing for him, as de Blasio added five percentage points to his lead. So the campaign cash is now flooding in to de Blasio's campaign.

The final debate between de Blasio and Lhota is on Wednesday evening (sandwiched between the anniversary of Sandy on Tuesday and Halloween on Thursday) from 7 to 8 pm on NBC-TV.

JOE LHOTA | Why Is NYC Deaf to Tough-on-Crime Tune?

Giuliani Endorses Lhota

Rudy Giuliani in 1993 and 1997 campaigned brilliantly on the issue of public safety, picking up on a theme that Richard Nixon hammered at, mashing up student protests with a rise in crime to argue that lawlessness was undermining New York City.

I was the Chief Economist for the New York City Comptroller's Office for the entire eight years of Giuliani's mayoralty. I remember leaning forward with anticipation when a reporter struggled to get Giuliani to move on from"law 'n order" to his economic-development strategy.

Rudy replied something like this: "As long as corporations are moving out of New York City because of crime, as long as property values are threatened by crime in the streets, my economic-development strategy is to reduce crime." So there.

This tough-on-crime electoral strategy worked from the 1960s through the 1990s. It worked for Nixon, for Ronald Reagan, for George H. W. Bush, and for hundreds of candidates in state and local elections. Even a supposedly liberal Republican like Nelson Rockefeller signed onto a draconian drug law.

The conservative mantra was:

• Liberal police chiefs would not let the cops do their jobs.
• Liberal judges would let criminals back onto the street.
• Liberal parole boards would grant parole too easily.  

Joe Lhota saw how this worked for Giuliani. He is piping the same tune. But this time, no one is dancing, or joining in, or even listening. De Blasio continues to ride high in the polls despite Lhota's soft-on-crime ads.

Why isn't the music working any more? Lhota has a new attack ad suggesting that de Blasio would bring New York City back to the high-crime days of the 1960s and 1970s. De Blasio spokesman Dan Levitan said:

Lhota is right that we can’t go back. We shouldn’t return to the days when Republicans like Giuliani used fear tactics to divide New Yorkers against each other.

Well, here are pieces of a counter-mantra that might explain New York City's deafness to the issue:

• Crime is down in New York City and everywhere in the United States. There are lots of explanations. Here's one I like: The civil rights movement of the 1960s has calmed down groups in the cities that were hostile to the police.Having a black president surely helps establish that the country offers opportunities for black citizens.
• Police work has gotten better in NYC and all over the country. Cops are being managed more efficiently. Crimes are tracked minute by minute and are analyzed. Task forces are sent to hot spots. 
• Tough on crime means more people in prison, which is costly.  Three percent of the American population is behind bars or on parole and probation – U.S. prisons hold 20 percent of all the people incarcerated in the world. Conservatives and libertarians are increasingly about the cost of this. Legislators are showing rare unanimity on this topic. In 1994, Newt Gingrich's Contract with America promised to put more people in prison. But now he is concerned about the huge costs of the large prison population, "in dollars and lost human potential".  
• Some rehabilitation programs work. There are some successful programs to prepare ex-offenders for return to the workforce. The 2012 Republican platform called for prisons to "attempt to rehabilitate and institute proven prisoner reentry systems to reduce recidivism and future victimization."

CRUZ | Dems Should Give Him an Award

Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas)

I hereby nominate Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for a Prize for Outstanding Service to the Democratic Party.

Surely he has done more for the Democrats than anyone else alive.

• Would de Blasio be so far ahead of Lhota in New York City's mayoral race without Cruz?
• Would Cory Booker have won his Senate spot so "handily" in New Jersey without Cruz?
• Gallup shows unfavorable view of GOP at all-time high of 62%. It shows favorable view at an all-time low of 28%. We have to thank Ted Cruz.

You may ask: What about Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1995-96? Didn't he help the Democrats just as much by shutting down the government? It was longer then, 27 days (in two parts) vs. 16 days.

Trillion-Dollar Coin

But no. Gingrich only put in play Bill Clinton's budget. By adding in the debt ceiling Cruz has called into question Uncle Sam's constitutional obligation to pay U.S. debts.

Also, Gingrich did not cause such divisiveness in his own party, which should pay continuing dividends to the Democrats. Gallup shows hardly a blip in GOP favorability ratings during that period.

Cruz absolutely deserves the prize. I recommend the award be a facsimile of the Trillion Dollar Coin, which was considered as a way around the debt ceiling. The Treasury would mint it as permitted under FDR's gold legislation of 1933-34 as subsequently interpreted and amended, and the Fed would take it in as an asset, with a trillion-dollar liability to the Treasury per coin.

NYC | Money > 2:1 for de Blasio

Bill de Blasio with an early campaigner. Photo

 by JT Marlin.

Once it was clear that Bill de Blasio had come from way behind to be the favorite in the NYC mayoral primary, the conventional wisdom was that de Blasio for Mayor would be a hard sell to the NYC establishment and that business money would flow to his opponent, Joe Lhota.

That seemed to be the pattern for the first two weeks after the primary on September 10. Lhota raised more money than de Blasio during that period. It wasn't clear where the Thompson and Quinn votes would go. A report came out saying that one-quarter or more of the Quinn votes would go to Lhota.

But two things happened next:

(1) By September 24, polls were out from the NY Times/Siena College and Quinnipiac pollsters that both gave de Blasio a three-to-one advantage. If Quinn votes were going to Lhota, they were thin on the ground.

(2) During the next two weeks, de Blasio has been raising more than twice as much as Lhota, as the table below shows.

	de Blasio	Lhota
Dem, GOP primaries, 9/10	$6,800K	$3,800K
First 2 weeks after primary	$153K	$156K
Since polls showed 3-1 deB	$635K	$280K

Source: NYC Campaign Finance Board filings

The latest poll in October shows deBlasio's advantage has climbed to 3.5 to one. Lhota has become a long shot. De Blasio's campaign team and consultants, having pulled off an upset, are not likely to be caught napping in the short campaign before the general election.

The wild card will be the independent messages from donors to Citizens United-type campaign funds trying to influence the election without having to reveal their identity. While these messages are a potential menace to any candidate, they are less targeted because they are prohibited from engaging in "express advocacy" for a client against another candidate -- and they are therefore likely to be less effective than direct campaign messages.

NYC | Lhota v de Blasio on the Economy

Joe Lhota (L) and Bill de Blasio (R).

In preparation for the Primary, City Limits magazine collected the views of mayoral candidates on economic development.

Given that the two main candidates are now facing off in the General Election in less than five weeks, these views are worth consulting again, this time more attentively.

Joe Lhota (Republican nominee for Mayor of New York City)

• "Diversify our economy and provide an environment conducive to job creation and the elevation of the standard of living in all five boroughs."

• "Create a climate that will encourage and sustain job growth, including reducing burdensome regulations and taxes that stifle private sector growth."

Bill de Blasio (Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York City)

• Reform or eliminate corporate tax breaks to save the city $250 million and devote it to CUNY

•  Form cohesive system from currently disjointed job training and placement programs, especially for less-skilled workers

• Expand CTE high schools

• Use better zoning enforcement and infrastructure investment to promote manufacturing

• Strengthen “neglected" sectors by building economic development hubs in each neighborhood and launching loan and investment funds to provide capital to local start-ups

• Reduce fines on small businesses and increase their chances of landing city contracts

• Expand sick day coverage, push for higher wages through city contracts and provide better work-rights enforcement

Bill de Blasio, Joe Lhota, and the Future of NYC

Bill de Blasio with neighborhood friends from Brooklyn, 

November 24, 2013. Photo by JTMarlin.

New York City has been blessed with a succession of strong mayors, and now we have two strong candidates for mayor - the "second-toughest job in America," as the late Mayor Koch used to say.

Mayor Bloomberg will be a hard act to follow. Coming in right after 9-11, he was a godsend and must be considered one of the great mayors of the city. Having a mogul as Mayor was a signal that the city is likely to be safe for other moguls, and gave them confidence to stay, to visit and move in. The steady aggregation of wealth in Manhattan keeps the NYC brand strong, even if Wall Street's rep is in the gutter. NYC is still the safest big city.

Adolfo Carrion (L) and Joe Lhota (R) at AARP Mayoral

Forum. Photo by JTMarlin.

But, lucky as we are to have had him lead the City, Mayor Bloomberg is leaving behind some big problems for de Blasio or Lhota to deal with. For starters:

• The NYPD's "stop and frisk" hunts for illegal weapons or other contraband have been deemed unconstitutional by a Federal judge because they have had insufficient cause. Race is not enough of a reason to stop someone. The judge says a cop has to have a reason for stopping someone. That doesn't mean crime rates are going to have to soar again.
• The labor unions are chomping - no, foaming - at the bit for long-delayed collectively bargained contracts. The new agreements could be budget-busters. Depends on how the revenues come in and the U.S. economy is still recovering from 2008-09.
• The people Mayor Bloomberg chose to turn the school system around, and the methods they are using (such as constant testing) have been strongly criticized. Needs some re-thinking. 
• His economic development programs have been heavily real-estate-oriented and involve unprecedented levels of new property-tax abatements that will pinch the budget as more services are required for new areas of development.
• The late-in-the-game tech initiative, a Cornell campus on Roosevelt Island, may disappoint for the very reason that was its impetus - the City's interest in making use of property on Roosevelt Island.
• The Mayor's ability to fund his own election campaigns has meant that he is not forced like other politicians to hunt for contributions - which has kept him above interest-group pressure, great, but also has kept him detached from the hoi polloi.    

Both Bill de Blasio and Joe Lhota are capable of running  New York City. The major differences between them are ones of personality and policy.

• Personally, de Blasio is warm, enthusiastic, and neighborly, whereas Joe Lhota is tense, combative, and remote (when he is under stress, his eyelids come together as if he seems to want to shut out all the rest of the world).
• On the policy front, de Blasio wants to level the playing field for NYC's middle class and poor people, which means more services for them and probably higher taxes on the very well off. Lhota's biggest concern is to avoid raising taxes at the top rates and to keep NYC safe for wealthy apartment buyers. They both will be tempted to put these differences under the light of class warfare. Lhota may think he will win most this way, but I wouldn't bet on it. Not this year.

The unions may have been divided in the primary, but most of them seem to have no trouble scrambling from the Quinn and Thompson camps to de Blasio. The first two polls show de Blasio ahead by a three-to-one margin. (These numbers are virtually the same as those for Quinn vs. Lhota way back in 2012 when de Blasio was an unknown.) The first tests for the next mayor will be whether he can work out labor agreements that don't break the budget.

The good news for the next mayor, whether de Blasio or Lhota, is that New Yorkers are weary of their mogul. Twelve straight years of Bloomberg after eight years of Giuliani means that City Hall has gradually been cut off from the public, for reasons of security and of philosophy, in ways that were inconceivable in the Koch and Dinkins days.

To bridge the gap between income and wealth inequality described as "the two cities", de Blasio has made a specific proposal to get a little more money from the rich (raising the top tax rate slightly, by a fraction of a percentage point, on those earning more than $500,000 a year) to provide expanded access to early-childhood education for everyone. Offering earlier schooling means the working parent or parents can go back to work earlier, while the children are socialized earlier and are likely collectively to perform better in higher grades. NYC businesses will reap the benefit of a more skilled workforce. Lhota has accepted half the idea, the universal pre-school part, rejecting the idea that higher taxes would be needed.

In the less than six weeks between now and the election, the two campaigns and the many "independent" voices will be painting the choices in various colors of class warfare. Lhota has already said that de Blasio is using a "Marxist Playbook". The realistic range of policy options in New York City does not take us into the terra incognita of "There be Dragons" Marxism. But the City does face real choices.

NYC MAYOR | Can Catsimatidis Get GOP Nod?

John Catsimatidis campaigning for the GOP nomination for Mayor
of New York City. Unexpected developments in the Democratic primary
are making people take a second look at GOP candidates. Photo: Cats site.

I was invited to breakfast meeting last week to hear from a candidate for the GOP nomination for mayor of NYC, John Catsimatidis.

There was no charge for the event. He doesn't need to raise funds. He ranks 132nd on the Forbes 400 and 458th on a global list of billionaires, with a net worth of $2 billion.

That may make him look like a piker by Bloomberg standards, but Cats doesn't need to take six-to-one matching funds from the City of New York. All NYC taxpayers should be grateful for that.

The thrust of Cats's pitch to the group of 75 people who came to hear him was that he was a self-made man who worked his way in a few years from being a grocery store clerk on 137th Street in Harlem, to running ten stores with a yearly volume of $25 million, generating income to him of $1 million. This has become the Gristedes grocery chain.

He has also made investments of approximately $1 billion in real estate, and owns interests in aviation and a Hellenic newspaper among other businesses. He has been a major player in getting the Greek Orthodox churches to work together. Anyone who knows about political fundraising in the United States respects the commitment of Greek-Americans to their candidates.

Cats describes himself as a GOP liberal–pro-business but interested in helping others, young and old. Sounds like Bloomberg. He is pro-safety and would reappoint Ray Kelly as Police Commissioner. He likes trade schools where graduates can go straight into jobs–electrical, carpentry, nursing, other health care services. He would bring in a Deputy Mayor who would recruit high-tech companies to come to New York City.

How would Cats differentiate himself from the other main GOP contender, Joe Lhota? He has the backing of former Mayor Giuliani and is more widely known as a government executive than John Catsimatidis.

Cats's response:

• Joe Lhota has a bad temper.
• He called Mayor Bloomberg "an idiot".
• He called the Port Authority police "mall cops".
• Lhota can't raise enough money to win. Cats would put his own money into the race. (Both Lhota and de Blasio will abide by spending limits to qualify for matching funds.)

L to R: Nick Sakellariadis, Harry Wilson and John Catsimatidis.

A mid-August Quinnipiac poll of likely GOP voters showed Lhota - former deputy to Mayor Giuliani and former MTA chairman - with 43 percent of likely primary voters, versus 37 percent for John Catsimatidis. The margin of error for this poll is 9.4 percentage points, which means that Lhota and Catsimatidis are in a statistical dead heat. Compared with the month before, Lhota lost 6 percentage points while John Catsimatidis increased his support by 2 percentage points. George McDonald is in third place with 9 percent.

My prediction is that Cats's potential as a candidate will be directly dependent on whether or not he does what he says he will do, i.e., hire people who are "better than me". He needs to rein in his impulses.

As an example, Cats promises to dig up all the concrete barriers (or, from a pedestrian point of view, islands). Citing the situation on 7th Avenue, he sees the battle as one between motorists and bicyclists. Sure, the Citibikes would have to be evicted from a lot of the areas where they are now protected by concrete islands. But pedestrians, especially seniors and children (for whom Cats has special concern), and parents of young children, and dog-walkers, have also become enamored of the greater ease of crossing the wide avenues with an island as a refuge on the way. The avenues are scary places to cross, especially for older people and people with disabilities. Those islands are lifesavers. Wholesale destruction of the islands would be a huge setback for NYC.

John Catsamitidis at this event and at others I have attended came across as hugely likeable. However, he needs someone to buy him a bigger-sized jacket and shirts with vertical stripes to disguise his Santa Claus figure. He should assemble a team of people with experience in different aspects of New York City government. He should announce who they are. Then he should listen hard to them before he announces with a wave of his hand what he is going to do. He had me eating out of his hand and then, like the 13th cuckoo of the cuckoo clock, he loses my confidence with a grand statement that appears to reflect his personal self-interest as CEO of a large grocery chain.

His chances of becoming mayor when Christine Quinn was the front-runner were remote. But NYC's business establishment is not going to be enthusiastic about a Bill de Blasio mayoralty and they will be looking for a Republican to support. When Cats first started campaigning, he did not convey seriousness about his candidacy - too ready with the wisecrack. He has taken a few steps towards being taken seriously, picking up a few allies. In the volatile atmosphere of the 2013 elections he just might be able to win the GOP nomination. In this crazy year, voters for the first time have to choose a successor to a 12-year mayor who looks better to many than the people who want to replace him. As the negatives of each of the candidates are ferreted out, Cats's prospects of winning in September and November have risen.

To find out more about candidates you hadn't paid any attention before, go to the Campaign Finance Board, which has an on-line Primary Election Voter Guide now available here or here.

DeBlasio's Leap to #1

De Blasio's hugely successful ad 

features his appealing son Dante.

De Blasio's spurt to a decided lead in the race for the Democratic nomination has huge implications. He is ahead in two independent polls - leading by 32% vs. 18% for Thompson in the NYTimes-Siena College poll (with Quinn #3) and by 36% in the Quinnipiac poll, which despite its name put Quinn in second place with 21%. The possibility that de Blasio could win 40% of the vote and avoid a runoff now presents itself.

De Blasio's appeal to the Democratic primary electorate has been twofold -

1. His "al Dante" (my term) campaign appeals to the minority vote (taking away from Thompson) by featuring his charming afro-topped son Dante giving him an unmistakably sincere endorsement as a father. De Blasio is now being attacked for using his son in this way. That may work - or it may be seen as a desperate move by his opponents and may backfire.

2. His fix-the-tax-mix approach appeals to the soul of the Democratic primary electorate by noting the high degree of income inequality in New York City and the fact that it has been increasing. Valid concerns, but hard to do much about at the local level. The biggest problem is that the Federal payroll tax is regressive, taxing the first dollar of payroll and cutting out at $113,700. NYC has hungry competitors to the north, west, east and south who have numerous Tax Foundation charts (both fair and unfair) to point to if NYC tries to fix income inequality on its own.

De Blasio leads the other candidates in every main category - among both men and women, both young and old, and both the optimists and pessimists about NYC. Of likely Democratic voters, the NYTimes-Siena College poll indicates that 45 percent view Quinn unfavorably (the de Blasio and Thompson figures are 17 and 16 percent), perhaps thanks to the well-financed anti-Quinn campaign.

I'm a Registered Democrat.  However, I try to be objective when I am asked by friends to comment on the implications of the new NYC polls for possible political outcomes. Quinn and Thompson have been keeping the tone of the campaign fairly somber. The new polls suggest this isn't working, and with ten days to go till the election, it's hard to change the strategy. Attacking de Blasio's son for supporting his father, or vice versa (#GoWiththeFro), doesn't sound to me a good way to turn the tide. If the battleground is who can do the most for young people and black youth in particular, it seems to me de Blasio wins.

What it means for November in my view  is that if the de Blasio lead in the polls continues to hold up, the GOP candidate (Catsimatidis and Lhota are the two most likely to be nominated) has a better chance now than any of them had any right to expect hitherto.

To find out more about candidates you hadn't paid any attention to  heretofore, go to the Campaign Finance Board, which has an on-line Primary Election Voter Guide now available here or here.