STATE BATTLEGROUNDS | Polling Update

The chart shows states that Trump won in 2016 where Biden is tied or has the edge as of September 28. The following synoptic summary of polling in battleground states as of Friday, October 30, is by Dana Chasin of 20/20Vision:

Vice President Biden leads national polls by 9 points and turnout rates favor Democrats by more than 17 points, pointing to a potential blue wave. Battleground states this year, ordered from most to least electoral votes, include: 

• Texas (38 Electoral Votes): Trump is up by 1.2 points in Texas. This year, Texas limited mail-in voting only to those unable to come to the polls. More than nine million Texans cast votes this week, surpassing 2016 turnout. And more than 16.9 million voters are registered in Texas, an increase of 3 million from 2016.

• Florida (29 EVs):  Both Biden and Trump are campaigning in Florida this week. Since Labor Day, Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one in Florida, and he is leading by 2.2 points in polls. Roughly 474,000 more registered Republicans have voted in-person in Florida than Democrats, but Democrats are leading mail-in voting by 637,000 votes. Republicans will likely continue to vote in-person, but total votes cast have already surpassed 2016 totals.

• Pennsylvania (20 EVs): Biden currently leads in Pennsylvania by 5.2 points. Since 2016, Democratic voter registration has declined by 10,000 while Republicans registered 205,000 voters. But Democrats hold a 700,000 voter registration edge statewide. So far, 2.1 million people, majority Democrat, have mailed in their ballots.

• Ohio (18 EVs): In the polls, Trump currently leads Biden by 0.9 in Ohio. Ohio offers in-person early voting and the ability to request an absentee ballot up to three days before Election Day. More than 2.5 million Ohioans have already cast their ballots. But unlike other states, fewer Ohio Democrats and more Republicans are voting early and absentee compared to the same point in 2016.

• Other states to watch: Other battleground states include Michigan (16 EVs), Georgia (16 EVs), North Carolina (15 EVs), Arizona (11 EVs), and Iowa (6 EVs), with polls showing Biden leading in Michigan by 9.1 points, Arizona by 3.1, North Carolina by 2.3, Georgia by 1.7, and Iowa by 0.3. While Trump is looking to flip Minnesota, which Clinton won by less than 2 points in 2016, Biden is leading the state by 8.2 points. NC, MN, and GA, along with Wisconsin, will likely report unofficial results by noon on Thursday, providing an indication of pre-election poll accuracy and the degree of red-to-blue shift in crucial swing states.

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TAXES | What Trump's Returns Show about Tax Laws

Gene Steuerle of the Urban Institute this week has posted a fine summary of lessons from Trump's tax returns as reported by The New York Times. 

Trump's returns show how U.S. tax laws can break the link between wealth and income, increasing wealth concentration. 

His  returns illustrate many ways individuals and businesses with large  accumulated assets can shelter income that would otherwise generate tax liabilities. Steuerle says tax policies since the early 1990s have hiked the ratio of household wealth to income, generating $25 trillion of nominal wealth above normal growth. The Fed's recent buying of debt has further protected wealth holders.

Examples: 

• Underreported capital gains. Income from appreciated property is not included in taxable income until the underlying asset is sold. Steuerle found in the 1980s less than one-third of net income from capital reported.
• Tax exemptions for real estate owners. Large real estate investors typically use a pass-through business and are thereby able to claim exemptions from corporate and individual taxation. If property is held until death, no income tax is owed on accrued but unrealized gains. Gains can be deferred or excluded from tax at death, but property owners can immediately deduct almost all expenses on their tax returns. Investors in real estate can swap real estate properties with another owner and defer recognition of capital gains income.
• Incentives for risky lending. Lending officers at an institution like Deutsche Bank make big money on loans even if their loans go sour. They earn bonuses by boosting the bank's cash flow. By the time the loan sours, it is usually too late to claw back bonuses.
• Incentives for risky borrowing.  Borrowers can write off nominal interest costs that are a multiple of the real cost of borrowing. Near-zero-interest federal fund rates, while taxpayers deduct their nominal interest costs, mean that in real terms some investors are being paid to borrow money.
• Tax incentives to declare bankruptcy.  An owner of two companies where #1 earns $5 million and #2 loses $6 million has an incentive to declare bankruptcy on #2 and avoid taxes on #1. Others bear the bankruptcy cost.

BALLOT TRACKING | Cry your eyes out, Putin

Cry your eyes out, Vladimir Putin.

Thanks to all the hacking four years ago, democracy is fighting back with tracking systems to rival Federal Express.

I was impressed with the tracking ability of the New York City Board of Elections, which allows ballots to be tracked online.

The Suffolk County, N.Y. Board of Elections has a similar ballot-tracking system that can be accessed by calling the Board.

A brief Google search shows similar ballot-tracking systems in place in California (for example, see https://gvwire.com/2020/08/05/new-website-allows-voters-to-track-their-ballot-registration/) and other states. This will be the best-tracked election ever. 

Sample tracking form, november 3 election

APPLICATION INFORMATION (New york city)

VSN 

015491X7

Confirmation Code 

P00XH3

TRACKING HISTORY

Date	Status
10/17/2020	Ballot Received Valid
10/07/2020	Ballot Received
10/06/2020	Voter Mailed Ballot
09/30/2020	Out for Delivery
09/29/2020	Ballot Mailed
09/17/2020	Application Approved
05/14/2020	Application Submitted

For further assistance please call 1-866-VOTE-NYC or email AbsenteeHelp@boe.nyc