MAY UNEMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES | 20-25%

U.S. Unemployment Rate, 2010-2020. The May figure was predicted to be
off the chart. [P.S. The BLS actually reports it defined to 13.3 percent.]

Thursday, June 4, 2020—Forecasters like to say: "If you give a number, don't give a date. If you give a date, don't give a number." Especially, don't forecast a definite number the day before.

However, these rules have been broken recently by people who have strong views about what the U.S. unemployment number will be at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow.

Scariest number: 25 percent. The unemployment rate of 25 percent is scary, because that (or a smidgeon above) was the peak unemployment of the Great Depression. This rate occurred in the early months of 1933. That would meet one test for deciding whether we are in the Second Great Recession or the Second Great Depression. The economy (GDP) has already suffered two quarters of decline. The big question is whether the decline will continue, which would be likely if the country saw a second wave of coronavirus infections. Paul Krugman has argued that to call what we are in a Depression would require four quarters of decline.

Most economic observers dismiss the idea that we are in a Depression, because they expect the economy to recover quickly as soon as coronavirus cases level off or a vaccine is developed that would allow the public to resume a normal life.

The following are examples of people who have gone on record as fearing that the May 2020 unemployment number to be announced in the morning will be as high as 25 percent:

• Fed Chairman Jay Powell (and it's his job to be well informed on the topic).
• Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.
• Goldman Sachs.
• Forbes Magazine's Chuck Jones.

Consensus: 20 percent. Most commentators, if they give a projected unemployment number, are like CNN's Anneken Tappe, who thinks the rate will be most likely about 20 percent. Which is bad enough, and off the chart above. We will know soon enough.

To understand what is happening, behind the unemployment number itself, I recommend looking at U-6 as well as U-3.

Measure	Apr. 2019	Feb. 2020	Mar. 2020	Apr. 2020	May 2020
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)	3.6	3.5	4.4	14.7	20%? 25%?
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force	7.3	7.0	8.7	22.8	25%? 30%?

The number that is ordinarily reported is U-3. In 1933, that was the only number available. But U-6 provides details (insofar as any sample of 50,000 households in the U.S. economy can provide details) of people who are neither employed nor unemployed, an interesting group of potential workers.

The level of U-6 unemployment will bear careful watching because of the number of Americans who are on the Payroll Protection Plan and other special programs that obscure the data.

(Hat tip to Dr. Jurgen Brauer, Geoffrey Hilton and Dr. Farid Heydarpour for their assistance with this post.) 

CHARLIE MINER, R.I.P. | Grandson of FDR's First Treasury Secretary

Charlie Miner (R) enjoying his great-nephew and great-great-niece and her (unrelated) Angry Bird. (Photo by JT Marlin.) 

March 20, 2018 – Charlie Miner, Jr. interrupted his studies at Princeton (Class of 1943) to volunteer as a bomber pilot.

He died yesterday, according to his daughter, and Vero Beach resident, Charmaine Caldwell.

A memorial service in Vero Beach is planned for May 3 and possibly another subsequent one in East Hampton. 

The following is a slightly edited (with a sad new ending) version of an article I wrote about Miner for The Vero Portfolio, May-June 2015 issue, p. 24.

Charlie Miner was one of seven grandchildren of his illustrious grandfather, FDR’s first Treasury Secretary, Will Woodin. His mother was Woodin's eldest daughter, Mary, who married an infantry captain, Robert Charles (Charlie) Miner, Sr.

Charlie Miner, Jr. divided his time at the end of his life between Vero Beach and East Hampton. When his beloved cousin Anne Gerli died in 2016, he gave up spending time in East Hampton. 

At Princeton, Miner studied engineering and joined the war effort as pilot of a B-25 Mitchell twin-engine bomber, which had a crew of three or more. Miner flew many of the 17 bombing missions of his Air Force unit over northern Italy. [More about his contribution to the war effort here.]

He was lucky to have survived. Of 16 million American veterans of World War II, fewer than one in 16 survived as of 2015, only 80,000 in Florida. That year Miner was one of only about 250 World War II vets left in Indian River County, and may be Indian River County's oldest surviving European-theater WWII bomber pilot.

Miner told me how much he loves Vero Beach, Fla. Years ago in the 1950s and 1960s, he spent time with his mother (who divorced Charlie Sr. and did not remarry) in the Riomar social life. It  revolved, he said, around rotating dinners and celebrations among the original 12 houses. The 30 residents took turns throwing parties. The Riomar Inn came later. John's Island—where Miner and his late wife Maisie lived now—opened in 1970 and was at first resented because it drew people away from Riomar (and then it became successful and was imitated by the Moorings).

Charlie Miner’s grandfather, Will Woodin, was the man who dealt with the Wall Street and banking panic that started in 1929 and was not put to rest until FDR came into office in March 1933. FDR's first Treasury Secretary was given wide latitude in addressing the problem. 

Will Woodin was born in Pennsylvania and settled in New York after a successful career as the CEO of a huge business, American Car & Foundry (ACF) selling railroad rolling stock. It was called the "Car Trust" because back then a "car" was a railway car. From 1916 to 1928 he headed up a company whose stock was one of the 20 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A cousin of his headed up the locomotive company (ALCo) that was another of the 20.

Woodin had four children. The eldest and youngest settled in Vero Beach — Mary Woodin Miner and Libby Woodin Rowe. Libby’s husband, Wally Rowe, and a brother bought homes in Riomar. Mary and Libby eventually lived in Vero Beach most of the year. Charlie’s mother lived in John's Island after Riomar and died in 2007 at 102.

Charlie remembers not just the bridge that connected the two sides of the Indian River, "Beachland Boulevard" where Route 60 crosses, before the concrete-arch Barber Bridge.  He remembers the drawbridge that was built earlier, in 1995. Before that, back in the 1930s, there was a bridge made of wooden railroad ties and swung around horizontally to let boats through the Indian River. 

Back in those early days Beachland Boulevard was the northern edge of Vero Beach, and there wasn’t a Riverside Theater. Charlie says the money was raised in several ways. Rosie and Sterling Adams organized a dance every year. He and his cousin, Bill Rowe, used to sell season tickets and organized an auction of donated prizes to raise money for the theater. The Theater is, of course, now a major institution in Vero.

Charlie (R) and me in 2014. Photo by
Alice Tepper Marlin.

What Charlie Miner liked about Vero is that it is quiet. That was one of the original motivations of the developers, along with the availability of rail transportation and ocean beaches. There is no strip with night clubs, no airport. As Charlie says, “I’m not a teenager anymore.”

Charlie’s Advice for a Long and Happy Life:

• For a long life: Every morning a meal of two eggs and tomato juice or V-8 (with or without the hair of the dog). 
• For a happy life: “Enjoy life while you can. If you want to do something, don’t wait. Do it while you can because life goes by quickly. You may never get another chance.” He says his 93 years have “Gone… Boom!”

During the many recent years that I have been studying and writing about FDR's forgotten first Treasury Secretary, Charlie's grandfather, I and my wife Alice have been amused and impressed by Charlie's joie-de-vivre and his sharp recollections of his long life. Learning of his death at 96 years old was a sad moment.

TAX REFORM | GOP Working on House Bill for Friday

The following, with a few paragraphs lightly edited, is from an email sent to me by Dana Chasin, and is posted here by permission. Some commentators think a tax reform bill will be taken up in the fall and passed in 2018.

Whether to maintain or eliminate the business interest deduction is a point of dispute among the Secret Six Republican tax planners. The 2016 House Blueprint for Tax Reform proposed eliminating the deduction. Steve Mnuchin said he preferred that the deduction be maintained, pitting the Secretary against at least two of the Secret Six members – Paul Ryan and Kevin Brady.  

Eliminating the interest deduction for business could generate $1.2 trillion in gross (not net) revenue over ten years. The White House is opposing the provision, as are major national business groups.

Business Interest Deduction

Eliminating the deduction would unhinge a founding doctrine of American tax policy.   Since the enactment of the federal income tax in 1913, businesses have been able to deduct all interest expenses on borrowed capital. To compensate for the revenue loss, the federal government taxes lenders on interest receipts. 

The problem is that interest is often received in tax-preferred forms, such as retirement plans, often effectively escaping taxation. So eliminating the deduction is not calculated to accomplish any fiscally oriented policy objectives for the GOP.  

$Trillions at Stake

Ending the business interest deduction could generate around $1.2 trillion over ten years according to the conservative Tax Foundation.  Note that this is not a net figure -- the amount would not come close to offsetting the $2 trillion that would be lost from reducing individual income tax brackets to 12, 25, and 33 percent. 

The Democratic “Better Way”

Democrats could be persuaded to see a future for eliminating the deduction, provided it simplifies the tax code burden in a progressive fashion.  Given the current environment and the Republicans’ need, in some circles, to find revenue, it’s unlikely that the Republicans will see fit to suggest anything the Dems would consider equitable reform.  But since deficits don’t seem to matter, we’ll probably see this fall to the cutting room floor after some debate. 

The Ryan-Brady wing of the Secret Six has advocated for the elimination of the deduction since releasing the “Better Way” agenda.  They intend to make up for the hit to business by allowing for 100 percent expensing of business investment in the first year.  Allowing immediate expensing and denying interest deductions is a large step toward turning the corporate income tax into something more akin to a consumption tax. This would replace a system in which businesses depreciate assets over useful lives prescribed by law. Despite this, their plan is out of step with American businesses.

Business Opposition

The Businesses United for Interest and Loan Deductibility (BUILD) Coalition has informed both the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means that it opposes eliminating the deduction. The coalition, mostly farmers and small businesses, emphasizes the important role borrowing plays in fueling their operations. The deductibility of interest lowers the cost of such borrowing.

The coalition also takes issue with the second plank of the Ryan-Brady plan: 100 percent expensing of first-year business investment. The coalition argues full and immediate expensing is redundant, as small businesses are already able to expense annual expenditures. Overall, the coalition insists the policy would raise the cost of capital and reduce investment over the long run.

Additionally, interest deductibility is a key component of the business model of real estate developers, who would be expected to oppose such a change in the law.

Where the Six Stand

Steve Mnuchin’s business background ought to incline him to preserve the deduction.  During a Ways and Means Hearing earlier this year, Mnuchin testified: “On the business tax, my preference is to maintain interest deductibility, which is important for small- and medium-sized businesses."  He went on to say that eliminating this deduction, like others, remains on the table despite the controversy.  

With Steve Mnuchin, Paul Ryan, and Kevin Brady’s views on record, what is known regarding the remaining Secret Six members' approach to the deduction?

•  NEC Chair Gary Cohn: Cohn holds the same view as Mnuchin.  On May 9, they both met with Republican senators and expressed their desire to maintain interest deductibility. Their unity means Trump likely supports keeping the deduction. 

•  Sen. Orrin Hatch, Chair of Senate Finance:  Sen. Hatch’s stance on the issue is unclear.  He has stated in the past that the Congress may not reconsider the deductibility of interest expenses, but said he was open to re-evaluating the question. Early this month he said: "Some people think that would be a tremendous move in the right direction, on both sides . . . I can see it one way, and I can see it the other way, too. These are tough issues. There's nothing easy about tax reform."

•  Sen. Mitch McConnell, Majority Leader: McConnell’s stance on the issue is unclear. He hasn’t come out for or against the deduction. The most he’s said when referencing it is: “There are going to be critics of any way you try to provide revenues to buy down rates.” 

Friday and Beyond

House GOP tax writers are weighing middle ground options between the total elimination of the business interest deduction and its preservation.  An interest deduction may be kept for farmers and small businesses.  

House Ways and Means Tax Policy Subcommittee Chair Peter Roskam says he is "actively working" on how to define which small businesses and farmers would be allowed to keep their interest deductions while taking advantage of the expensing provisions in the tax reform bill that Ways and Means is working on. 

There is also the possibility of a “haircut” for interest deductions, say with 20 percent of net interest not allowed as a deduction.

It is not known if opposing or undecided members of the Secret Six will sign on to these approaches. If you’re anxious to know just where the Secret Six stands on this deduction and all the other important elements of tax policy, stay tuned – you will find out more on Friday (July 28) regarding the big recess reveal. ⧫

Dana Chasin is a fiscal and financial policy advisor who has worked in legislative and advocacy capacities in Washington and for investment banking and financial not-for-profit organizations in New York. Mr. Chasin was Legislative and Policy Liaison to Congress and the Obama administration at Americans for Financial Reform (AFR), a national coalition supporting comprehensive financial regulatory reform and as a member of the AFR Too Big to Fail Task Force. Previous to joining AFR, Mr. Chasin was Senior Advisor at OMB Watch, a non-profit, non-partisan think tank in Washington, researching and advising on federal fiscal policy. He previously served as Legislative Assistant for U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, covering judiciary, tax, budget, and banking issues. He spent six years as Vice President in the global Project Finance team at Société Générale, the international investment bank. Mr. Chasin has published op-ed articles in the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and the Christian Science Monitor. 

FDR | March 4–Inauguration

The Brains Trust with President-elect FDR.
L to R: Cary Grayson, Norman Davies, Raymond
Moley, Redford Tugwell, Will Woodin, FDR.

On this day, March 4, 1933, at a climax of the Great Depression, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was inaugurated as the 32nd U.S. president.

For his rained-on Inaugural Address outside the east wing of the U.S. Capitol, FDR had to ascend the steps to the podium to take the oath of office.

To do this, an elaborate series of wheelchair-accessible ramps was constructed and hidden. FDR walked the last few yards leaning heavily on the arm of his son James.

FDR then outlined his New Deal–an expansion of the federal government to create jobs and improve the quality of life for Americans. He told Americans that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” His Inaugural March, composed for the occasion by FDR's Treasury Secretary, William H. Woodin, was played in the rain. Despite the downpour, FDR delivered a speech that conveyed an upbeat, can-do spirit.

The President then had to face serious the bank panics and gold outflows. He turned that job over entirely to Treasury Secretary Woodin so that he could focus on the message that he wanted to deliver to his country.

Woodin immediately focused on printing more bills, getting them to the banks to solve the liquidity problem, publicizing the generation of liquidity, opening solvent ("sound") banks, and closing down banks that were insolvent. Meanwhile, Woodin worked on the passage of the Banking Act of 1933—the Glass-Steagall Act—and the Securities Exchange Act of 1933. The turnaround in the financial markets was almost immediate and endured.

FDR was born in 1982 to an old Dutch family in Hyde Park, NY, the fifth cousin of Theodore (Teddy) Roosevelt, who served two terms as the 26th U.S. president in 1901-1909. In 1905, FDR, then a student at Columbia University Law School, married Anna Eleanor Roosevelt, Teddy Roosevelt's niece. After three years practicing law, FDR followed his cousin Teddy's lead and campaigned for, and won, election to the NY State Senate in 1910 as a Democrat. He soon earned a reputation as a reform-oriented charismatic politician.

After supporting progressive N.J. Governor Woodrow Wilson in his successful 1912 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, FDR was appointed assistant secretary of the U.S. Navy, a post that Teddy Roosevelt once held. In 1920, FDR won the Democratic nomination for vice president on a ticket with James Cox. The Democrats to Republicans Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, and FDR returned to his law practice and some  business ventures.

In 1921, FDR was stricken with polio and became nearly totally paralyzed. His wife, Eleanor, kept the Roosevelt name alive in Democratic circles. In 1924, partly recovered (although he could never again walk unaided), FDR returned to politics, nominating NY Governor Alfred E. Smith for the presidency with a rousing speech at the Democratic National Convention.

In 1928, he again nominated Smith, and the outgoing New York governor urged Roosevelt to run for Governor. Roosevelt campaigned across the state by automobile and was elected even as the state voted in the presidential election against their favorite son and for Republican Herbert Hoover.

As governor, Roosevelt worked for tax relief for farmers and in 1930 won a resounding electoral victory just as the economic recession brought on by the October 1929 stock market crash brought on the Great Depression. Governor Roosevelt mobilized the state government to play an active role in providing relief and spurring economic recovery. His aggressive and effective approach to the economic crisis won him the Democratic presidential nomination in 1932.

The contrast between FDR's activist response in NY State to the Depression and President Hoover's laissez-faire inaction nationwide couldn't have been greater, and FDR had no trouble defeating Hoover in 1932. Many blamed Hoover for the Depression, and FDR carried all but six states. During the next four months before the inauguration, bank panics increased, the economy continued to decline. When Roosevelt took office on March 4, 1933, most banks were closed, farms were suffering, 13 million workers were unemployed, and industrial production stood at just over half its 1929 level.

FDR's Treasury Secretary, Will Woodin, was a Republican industrialist who had once run for Congress on a hard-money program. He was a fan of Teddy Roosevelt and helped FDR with his Warm Springs Foundation and with fundraising for his runs for Governor and President.

Woodin was a key player during the financial reforms of the first 100 days of FDR's presidency. Aided by a Democratic Congress, Roosevelt took prompt, decisive action, and most of his New Deal proposals were approved during these 100 days. Most important for the financial sector were the Banking Act or Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, a trade of tough bank regulation for a limited deposit insurance program sought by the banks, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1933. Woodin as Treasury Secretary was deeply involved in the passage of these laws.

Job-creating programs also passed in the first 100 days included the Agricultural Adjustment Act, National Industrial Recovery Act, and the Public Works Administration and Tennessee Valley Authority.

Although many in the business community stubbornly criticized FDR's regulatory and job-creating programs—both FDR and Secretary Woodin were called traitors to their class—the programs unquestionably improved America’s economic climate and FDR was reelected handily three more times. Woodin became sick from the long hours and stress of his job, and died in May 1934; FDR called him a "martyr to public service."

FDR | Mar. 12–First Fireside Chat, 1933

FDR Delivering "Fireside Chat"

On this day in 1933, eight days after his inauguration, President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave his first national radio address or “fireside chat,” broadcast directly from the White House.

FDR began his first address with the words: “I want to talk for a few minutes with the people of the United States about banking.”

He had told his lifelong-GOP Secretary of the Treasury, Will Woodin, that he didn't want to be bothered with the details of the solution to the bank panic because he was going to concentrate on communicating the resolution to the public. This was a disappointment to Columbia Prof. Raymond Moley, who was serving as FDR's adviser on the banking crisis and wanted to consult with FDR at every point, but Woodin went right to work.

The Friday before FDR's inauguration, most banks had already been closed because so many states had initiated their own bank holidays, to give the banks some breathing room as depositors were lining up to withdraw all their money (outgoing President Hoover wouldn't act without FDR's agreement, and FDR's position was that he was not going to become President until March 4).

The scene of panic throughout the banking system was shown vividly in Frank Capra's movie It's a Wonderful Life (1947), starring Jimmy Stewart as small-town banker George Bailey, who is considering suicide as he sees his depositors destroying his bank, one depositor at a time.

FDR's first act was to announce a Federal bank holiday – i.e., a presidentially ordered closing of the banks – pending examination of all the banks (largest ones first) and the reopening only of the solvent banks. Secretary Woodin knew what to do as a top manager, because he had been Chairman of a locomotive company and President of a railway car manufacturer that in 1928 were two of the 20 companies in the Dow. He started working around the clock as if it were a three-shift factory, pushing government staff to:

• Print $2 billion more greenbacks for the banks to have on hand.
• Publicize the printing and packing of the greenbacks with filmed news clips for the cinemas.
• Close the banks.
• Examine the banks one by one for solvency, on a priority basis.
• Reopen the sound banks.
• Take steps to close and liquidate the unsound banks.
• Prepare new legislation to prevent a recurrence of the banking crisis–the legislation being passed within months as the Banking Act of 1933, aka the Glass-Steagall Act, named for the bank-regulatory provisions proposed by Senate Banking Chair Carter Glass (D-Va.) and the deposit-insurance plan proposed by House Banking Chair Henry B. Steagall (D-Ala.).
• Prepare new legislation to provide oversight over non-bank financial institutions, which became the Securities Exchange Act of 1933.

Meanwhile, FDR laid the public-communications groundwork for all these steps. In his Fireside Chat he explained the closure of the banks as necessary to stop a surge in withdrawals by panicked depositors. Many banks would be reopening the next day, FDR said, and he thanked Americans for their  “fortitude and good temper” during the period of the bank holidays.

When FDR took office, the United States was suffering the highest rate of unemployment, with between one-fourth and one-third of workers being unemployed.

The Fireside Chat got its name from radio journalist Robert (Bob) Trout, who was called "the Iron Man of Radio" for his ability to keep talking during a breaking news story. FDR's purpose was to inspire confidence in himself and in the nonfunctioning banking system. While the chats sound folksy, FDR took great pains to make them that way, using simple vocabulary and anecdotes. Presidents had previously communicated with their citizens almost exclusively through journalists. The Fireside Chats were without precedent and they were effective because radios were still magical and were owned by 90 percent of U.S. households.

BIRTH | Jan. 30–FDR

FDR's First Cabinet. Will Woodin, Treasury
Secretary, is on his left. 

On this day in 1882, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) was born in Hyde Park, N.Y., near Poughkeepsie.

He grew up an only child, graduated from Harvard in 1904 and then Columbia Law School. In 1905, he married Eleanor Roosevelt, a niece of TR and a distant cousin.

FDR was elected to the NY State Senate, served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy under Woodrow Wilson, and in 1920 ran for Vice President on the unsuccessful Democratic challenge to Warren Harding. Despite being paralyzed by polio in 1921, he was elected Governor of NY, serving from 1929 to 1932. As Governor, he tried out social programs that were more successful than national programs to combat high (as high as 25 percent) unemployment attempted by President Hoover.

He was not financially well situated to run for President in 1932 because he had accumulated huge debts running his Warm Springs Foundation in Warm Springs, Ga.  Originally envisioned as a spa for himself, FDR brought in more staff and served other patients with the care he had been obtaining for himself, regardless, it seems, of the patients' ability to pay.

To allow FDR to run for President, Will Woodin, who as of 1928 was President or Chairman of two of the 20 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average–American Car & Foundry and American Locomotive–raised the money to pay off FDR's Warm Springs debts, and then helped him raise the money for his campaign for the presidency.

FDR was elected the 32nd U.S. president in 1932. He appointed Woodin–one of only three Republicans in his first Cabinet–as his Treasury Secretary. It was an inspired selection. As a business man rather than a Wall Streeter, Woodin managed the pumping of greenbacks into the banking system, the closing of banks while the solvent ones were separated from the insolvent ones (which were closed), the ending of private ownership of gold in anticipation of devaluation (Woodin salvaged an exception for collectors  of gold coins), and the walling off of commercial banking from investment banking as the price of giving banks federal deposit insurance.

In 1933, Roosevelt embarked on his New Deal, which included, besides Wall Street reform (the Glass-Steagall Act and the Acts creating the SEC), the creation of the Work Projects Administration (WPA), the Federal Industrial Recovery Act and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). The New Deal was controversial, but many of FDR’s reforms, including Social Security and the minimum wage, are now entrenched institutions supported by both major parties.

Roosevelt led the United States through the Great Depression and then through victory over Hitler and Mussolini in World War II. Roosevelt died in his beloved Warm Springs, Ga. in 1945, leaving Truman to end the war with Japan and utilize FDR's blueprints to build the United Nations.

CITYECONOMIST | June 2, 2015–170K Pageviews; Most Popular

Thank you for reading and have a good month.

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I appreciate your clicking on this blogsite.

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FDR's GOP Treasury Secretary Exempted Pattern Coins

This post is merged with Chapter 12 of my biography of William Woodin. It is kept posted to avoid broken links. 
http://cityeconomist.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-crash-and-fdrs-bi-partisan-response.html