Monday, August 18, 2014

NY STATE | Recent Prosperity Originates Downstate

L to R: John Tepper Marlin, Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY12)
 and Tim Bishop (D-NY1). Photo by Alice Tepper Marlin.
Rep. Tim Bishop spoke at an event over the weekend welcoming back Rep. Carolyn Maloney from China.

Bishop told the group in Bridgehampton, NY that he would be facing a challenger backed again by Tea Party bankrollers.

The reason is that NY-1 had one of the weakest majorities for Obama in the last election.

However, if the plan is to dredge up the last campaign's attacks on Bishop for not doing enough for the Suffolk County economy, as both opposition candidates promised, recent new data do not support the idea that Suffolk County has been slipping.

On the contrary, Nassau and Suffolk had New York State's lowest metro area unemployment rate in May and again in June. On a county basis, both Nassau and Suffolk had among the lowest ten unemployment rates of 62 NY State countries, averaging 4.9 percent. By comparison, the Bronx unemployment rate was 10.8 percent and Brooklyn's was 8.3 percent. The NYC unemployment rate fell slightly between June and July. The unemployment rate has increased slightly in the United States in July compared with June, seasonally adjusted, and in NY State outside of NY City. NY State’s unemployment rate was unchanged between June and July, at 6.6 percent, the lowest level since November 2008.

NY State jobs were again in July above 9 million, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning (Table D). This is the third consecutive month of jobs above 9 million, and the 20th consecutive month of jobs growth. The state added 17,300 private-sector jobs. Total private-sector jobs in NY State are at an all-time high of more than 7.6 million.  Jobs in NY State have grown in 38 of the past 43 months

Private-sector jobs have continued to grow in July 2014 compared with the same month in 2013:

United States                          +2.2%
New York State                      +1.9%
Downstate NY (10-co. area)    +2.4%
New York City                         +3.0%
Suburban Counties                 +1.2%
Nassau-Suffolk                       +1.6%
Upstate NY (52-co. area)        +0.9%

In the 10-county Downstate region, private-sector jobs grew by 2.4% over the past year. Downstate’s private-sector job growth was most rapid in New York City (+3.0 percent) and in Nassau-Suffolk (+1.6 percent).

In the 52-county Upstate region, private-sector jobs grew 0.9 percent over the past year. Private-sector job growth occurred in both the region’s metro areas (+1.0 percent) and in counties outside of metro areas (+0.3 percent). One metro area in the state lost private sector jobs between July 2013 and July 2014, i.e., Syracuse (-1.2 percent).

Rep. Bishop has been a major advocate for education in the Congress, and (private) educational and health services are the fastest-growing sector in NY State.

NY State Major Industry Sectors that Gained Jobs
 Growth between July 2013 and July 2014 (details here):
Educational & Health Services*       +53,400
Professional & Business Services     +30,600
Trade, Transportation & Utilities        +28,200
Leisure & Hospitality                         +22,200
Construction                                     +8,400
Other Services                                  +5,800
Financial Activities                                +500
Information                                           +400
Natural Resources & Mining                 +300
*Educational and health services are in the private sector.

A Tea Party opponent will have trouble making the argument that Rep. Bishop has been allowing government employment to get out of control in NY State, since government jobs in NY State fell during the year ending July 2014.

Major Sectors that Lost Jobs (Decline between July 2013 and July 2014)
Manufacturing                                     -9,200
Government**                                     -6,200
**Government jobs include public education and public health services.