PRIMARY RESULTS | Dana Chasin Update

The following is by my friend Dana Chasin, reposted by permission: Washington, D.C., August 8, 2018–Last night was another exciting Tuesday primary and special election day in the midst of a slow-moving August recess week.  From Ohio to Michigan, Washington State, and even Kansas, elections were held that set up competitive general elections in November in purple-red districts around the country. Women candidates once again came out on top.  Some economic policy progressives had less-than-impressive showings.  In Democratic primary races with one male and one female candidate, without an incumbent on the ballot, the woman has now won 69 percent of the time; by contrast, Republican women have won only 34 percent of the races.  The blue wave is taking a recognizable shape. ————————— Kansas  KS-03: Davids v. Rep. Yoder (Add) 2016 Pres. Election: Clinton 47/ Trump 46 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 54/Obama 44 2016 House: Yoder (R) 51/Sidie (D) 41 Cook PVI: R+4 In KS-03, openly-gay, Native-American attorney and EMILY’s list-endorsee Sharice Davids faced off against Brett Welder, a PCCC-backed progressive candidate. EMILY's List spent $400,000 on an ad campaign for Davids, which highlighted her experience working on economic development programs on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota and other Native American reservations. In a close race between two first-time candidates, Davids narrowly came out on top, 37 to 34 percent, and will challenge Rep. Kevin Yoder, who is seen to be the most vulnerable Republican congressman in Kansas, in November. Davids says she chose to focus on the issues that were most relevant to constituents in her district as opposed to campaigning on a purely progressive platform.  Her economic platform focuses on reversing the Republican tax cuts, incentivizing health care benefits for small businesses, creating a childcare tax credit, and supporting efforts to increase broadband access. Michigan  MI-01: Morgan v. Rep. Bergman  2016 Pres. Election: Trump 58/ Clinton 36 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 53/ Obama 45 2016 House: Bergman (R) 55/ Johnson (D) 40 Cook PVI: R+9 MI-01 is now a viable pickup chance for Democrats in November.  Matthew Morgan, the only Democratic candidate, was disqualified from running on the ballot in the Democratic primary due to an administrative error by the campaign staff.  Morgan, now having qualified as a write-in candidate, will face incumbent Rep. Jack Bergman in November. A 20-year marine veteran, Morgan is running a campaign focused on healthcare for all.  He also addresses the problems of wage stagnation and crumbling infrastructure -- two important issues for Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. MI-06: Longjohn v. Rep. Upton  2016 Pres. Election: Trump 51/ Clinton 42 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 50/ Obama 49 2016 House: Upton 59/ Clements 36 Cook PVI: R+4 Dr. Matt Longjohn won what turned out to be an easier-than-expected victory.  Longjohn won 37 percent to moderate George Franklin’s 28 and will now face House Energy Committee Chair Fred Upton, who has been in Congress since 1986. Longjohn will have a tough road, though local Michiganders believe that MI-06 is the third best pickup chance this November. Longjohn will do so with a message on healthcare, an issue he knows well from his experience as the YMCA national health officer.  Though Longjohn has a progressive healthcare message, he has also advocated for some deregulatory policies, saying “community banks must all be supported better by our federal policies by eliminating unnecessary regulations.” MI-07: Driskell v. Rep. Walberg  2016 Pres. Election: Trump 56 / Clinton 39 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 51/ Obama 48 2016 House: Walberg 55/ Driskell 40 Cook PVI: R+7 In MI-07, former State Rep. Gretchen Driskell easily beat primary challenger and progressive grass roots activist Steven Friday, 85 to 15 percent, to face off once again against Rep. Walberg in November.  The race is a repeat of 2016, but with the blue wave behind her, Driskell is more likely to beat Republican incumbent Tim Walberg this time around. Driskell campaigned on creating jobs, protecting social security and medicare, and investing in public education. MI-08: Slotkin v. Rep. Bishop 2016 Pres. Election: Trump 51/ Clinton 44 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 51/ Obama 48 2016 House: Bishop 56/ Shkreli 39 Cook PVI: R+4 Elissa Slotkin, a formal national security advisor, beat Michigan State University professor Chris Smith, 70 to 29 percent, to become the Democratic challenger to face Rep. Bishop in MI-08 in November.  MI-08 was recently moved from lean Republican to toss-up by Cook Political and is seen as a pickup opportunity for Democrats. Slotkin gained favorable national media attention campaigning on investment in education and infrastructure, ensuring retirement security, fixing the federal budget deficit, and fighting for campaign finance reform.  She has repeatedly called out Rep. Bishop for voting for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act last year, which she believes was a fiscally irresponsible decision. MI-11: Stevens v. Epstein 2016 Pres. Election: Trump 50/ Clinton 45 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 52/ Obama 47 2016 House: Trott 53/ Kumar 40 Cook PVI: R+4 Haley Stevens emerged as the victor in yesterday’s MI-11 Democratic primary, securing an auspicious win over her other Democratic challengers. Stevens, a former chief of staff of President Obama's Auto Rescue, received a late endorsement from Hillary Clinton, which may have helped tip her over the line.  Stevens campaigned hard on bringing down health care costs in her district and has a strong background in federal economic policy from her experience on the Obama administration's auto bailout task force. Stevens and Slotkin’s races will be the most flippable seats to watch in the Great Lakes State come November. Missouri  MO-02: VanOstran v. Rep. Wagner 2016 Pres. Election: Trump 53/ Clinton 42 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 57/ Obama 41 2016 House: Wagner 59/ Otto 38 Cook PVI: R+8 MO-02 featured an interesting primary in the only competitive congressional district in the state. The Democrats in MO-02 out-voted the Republicans by 20,000 votes in the primary. Rep. Ann Wagner doesn’t look like she is a candidate on the brink of falling apart, but voters are looking at a more moderate Democratic choice in Cort VanOstran. Having won his primary handily against progressive Matt Osmack, VanOstran will continue to speak against slashing regulations that will hurt our financial system, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and for a progressive policy of raising the minimum wage to a liveable wage. Washington WA-03: Long v. Rep. Herrera Beutler  2016 Pres. Election: Trump 50/ Clinton 43 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 50/ Obama 48 2016 House: Herrera Beutler (R) 62/ Moeller (D) 38 Cook PVI: R+4 In another top-two primary, Carolyn Long and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler advanced to face off against each other in November. Beutler secured 41 percent of the vote, while the five Democratic challengers in the race secured over 50 percent between them. After the primary election, Cook Political moved this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican making it a much more viable pickup chance this November. On the issues, Long is a staunch supporter of the ACA, campaign finance reform, Social Security and Medicare, progressive tax reform, and gender equity and security for women. The incumbent Beutler will now face a tight race against the former political science professor in November. WA-05: Brown v. Rep. McMorris Rodgers  2016 Pres. Election: Trump 52/ Clinton 39 2012 Pres. Election: Romney 54/ Obama 44 2016 House: McMorris Rodgers (R) 60/Pakootas (D) 40 Cook PVI: R+8 In WA-05, the blue wave seems to be crashing-in and may claim a member of Republican leadership. The top-two primary yielded the fourth ranked Republican in the House Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Fmr. State Sen. Majority Leader Lisa Brown. The most exciting news however was the margin, with 64 percent of precincts reporting McMorris Rodgers leads Brown by a stunning 47.5 to 47.1. A sign that come November, McMorris Rodgers could have her work cut out for her. McMorris Rodgers has yet to claim a majority and is looking at a potential loss. Brown, however boasts a progressive agenda, including expansion of medicare and investing in infrastructure and education. A Democrat win here would suggest more of a tsunami than just a wave. WA-08: Schrier v. State Sen. Rossi  2016 Pres. Election: Clinton 48/ Trump 45 2012 Pres. Election: Obama 50/Romney 48 2016 House: Reichert (R) 60/Ventrella (D) 40 Cook PVI: EVEN In WA-08, pediatrician Kim Schrier narrowly beat former prosecutor Jason Rittereiser by 1.5 percentage points to emerge as the Democratic primary winner to face State Sen. Dino Rossi in November. An open seat, WA-08 is one of the more than 20 districts held by Republicans that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, making it a viable opportunity for Democrats. Schrier supports a livable wage, increased investments in STEM and infrastructure, and Medicare-for-all. Ohio Special Election In an R+7 district that Donald Trump won by 10 points, Democrat Danny O’Connor came within a percentage point of claiming victory over his GOP rival, Troy Balderson in a special election race in OH-12. There are still provisional ballots to be counted, but it looks like Balderson will be able to cling onto his win. Regardless, the district should not have been competitive in the first place, and the razor-thin margin for the GOP is yet another promising sign for Democrats in November. Bet the House to Save the House? If Ohio’s special election result in an R+7 district tells us anything, it’s that the Republican control of Congress is teetering on the edge. Republicans hold 24 House seats classified as toss-ups and another 10 seats classified as Lean Democrat or better according to Cook Political Report — Democrats only need to flip 23 to regain the majority in the lower chamber. The GOP spent nearly a million dollars in get-out-the-vote efforts as they frantically scrambled to secure a win in addition to the millions they had already poured into Balderson’s campaign. With many seats up for grabs and Democrats on the charge, the GOP will need to reach deep into their pockets to try and save their House majority.

Voting - The New York State Primary and General Election

Vote... or stop bitching.

1. When is the 2014 primary in New York State?
It is on Tuesday, September 9. Candidates for state offices will be voted on, including Governor and Lt. Governor. The general election will be on November 4.

2. Who can vote in the primary?

In New York State, only registered Democrats can vote in Democratic primary. Only registered Republicans can vote in a Republican primary. Independents give up their right to vote in either one. It is too late to register for the primary election after mid-August. (There are multiple problems with the system, but that's the law.)

3. Can a voter with two homes (owned or rented) be registered to vote in two locations?

No. A voter may vote in only one location in an election cycle.

4. Does registering at the address of a vacation home change the location of someone's "residence" for tax purposes?

No. New York State Law allows second homeowners to choose where they want to vote - either their first or their second home. Someone with a home in New York City and a home on the East End of Long Island may register and vote on the East End even if New York City is the person's primary residence. However, there must be a continuing connection with the East End residence.

5. How do I register to vote in November?

To vote in the general election, register. Pick up a voter registration form at the Post Office, fill it out and mail it in before the deadline (in 2013 it was October 10). To change your registration address from New York City, make sure that you include your current voting address in Box 10 of the registration form, so that registration from the NYC address is cancelled.

6. I won't be near my local voting address in November. Can I cast an absentee ballot? 

Yes. Pick up a request application for an absentee ballot form at the Post Office and fill it out immediately; the deadline for submission of the application will be at the end of October (in 2013 it was October 29) . If you are registering to vote and need an absentee ballot application, the voter registration form is one-stop shopping, because it provides an opportunity to apply for the application in Box 14.

7. What Offices are on the ballot?
State Executive: NYS Governor . NYS Lieutenant Governor .  NYS Comptroller . NYS Attorney General
NYS Senators (All 63 districts of the New York State Senate are up for election in 2014, including the 27 districts which represent parts of New York City.)
NYS Assembly Members (All 150 districts of the New York State Assembly are up for election in 2014, including the 66 districts that represent parts of New York City.)

US Congressional Representatives (All 27 New York districts of the United States House of Representatives are up for election in 2014, including the 13 districts that represent parts of New York City.)

8. What Ballot Proposals are voted on?
In addition to voting for candidates, New Yorkers vote on whether to amend specific provisions of the New York State Constitution via referenda, also known as ballot proposals. The NYS legislature (both the State Senate and Assembly) must vote on the proposals' appearing on the ballot two years in a row. Then, the NYS Board of Elections must certify the language of the proposals - and their abstracts, or official summaries - by early August, 3 months before the General Election.

9. Other Questions?

Where to vote:

https://voterlookup.elections.state.ny.us/votersearch.aspx 

Other information:

http://www.elections.ny.gov/

http://www.lwvny.org/

NY ELECTIONS | Who Can Vote in the Sep. 10 Primary?

A newsletter of the East Hampton Democrats refers to NY State law in answering these questions:

1. Who can vote in a primary?

Democrats can vote in Democratic primary. Republicans can vote in a Republican primary. Independents who don't register in either party are not allowed to vote in either primary.

2. Can a voter be registered to vote in two locations?

No. A voter may vote in only one location in an election cycle, which means every two years for Federal elections and same number of years but off by a year, for state and local elections.

3. Does registering in East Hampton change someone's "primary residence" location for tax purposes?

No. New York Law allows second homeowners to choose where they want to vote – either their first or second home. It's the homeowners choice where to vote. This means that if, for example, someone has a home in New York City and a home in East Hampton, that person may register and vote in East Hampton even if New York City is the person's primary residence, as long as the connection with East Hampton is ongoing.

4. How does one register to vote in November?

To vote in East Hampton, one must be registered to vote in Suffolk County. Registration is simple. 

Pick up a voter registration form at the Post Office, fill it out and mail it in before the October 10, 2013 deadline. To change your registration address from another city to East Hampton, make sure that you put your current voting address in Box 10 of the registration form, so that registration from the old address is cancelled.

5. I won't be where I am supposed to vote in November. Can I cast an absentee ballot? 

Yes. Pick up a request application for an absentee ballot form at the Post Office and fill it out immediately; the deadline for submission of the application is October 29, 2013. If you are registering to vote and need an absentee ballot application, the voter registration form is one-stop shopping - as it gives you the opportunity to apply for the application in Box 14.