Showing posts with label @GlassSteagall. Show all posts
Showing posts with label @GlassSteagall. Show all posts

Thursday, September 14, 2017

GLASS-STEAGALL | Anniversary of Northern Rock

Run on Northern Rock, Sept. 14, 2007, first in
UK in 150 years. This is what Glass-Steagall
was design to prevent.
OXFORD, Sept. 14, 2017 – I'm here in Oxford for the annual Oxford Alumni Weekend. 

The lead business story today on BBC News "Business Live" at 8:30 a.m. this morning was the 10th anniversary of "the first run on UK banks in 150 years," i.e., Northern Rock. The bank was nationalized five months laters.

What has happened in the ten years since then? (1) Bank reserves are higher than they were then. (2) Retail banks have been separated from investment arms of the banks. This sounds a lot like what Senator Carter Glass tried to put in place along with Treasury Secretary Will Woodin in 1933. Rep. Henry Steagall from Alabama was pushing through federal deposit insurance for the banks and the Glass part was to protect the taxpayer.

The BBC announcer asked an expert whether the reforms are enough. The expert, a professor, who says no, that there are still too many risks.

The fear here is that the Bank of England will soon respond to good news and possible signs of inflation by raising interest rates. In the UK, that means a rise in the cost of variable-rate mortgages. Some mortgage-holders will be taken by surprise. Defaults may increase and cause insolvency among weaker financial institutions.

At least the new £10 note has Jane Austen on the back. Has the USA ever had the picture of a woman on a greenback? We were supposed to get Harriet Tubman but reports are that Trump has killed that idea.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

GLASS-STEAGALL | Bipartisan Support (Updated March 12, 2017)

Sen. Carter Glass, Feb. 1933
July 27, 2016—Andrew Ross Sorkin (New York Times, July 26, p. B1) considers it "an extremely odd political dovetail" that both Democratic and Republican platforms include planks calling for the restoration of the 1933 Banking Act, widely referred to as Glass-Steagall.

The GOP platform is not consistent. It has some anti-regulatory provisions diametrically opposed to a restored Glass-Steagall Act. But a coalition between Republicans and Democrats on major financial issues is not odd at all:
  • The coalition that brought down the Philadelphia-based Hamiltonian Second Bank of the United States united Old Republicans opposed to growing Federal power and Jacksonian Democrats opposed to the reining-in of bank lending.
  • The coalition that created the Federal Reserve in 1913 included Republican Senator Nelson Aldrich and several Wall Street bankers, who drafted a privately controlled plan at a "duck hunt" in November 1910, and Democratic Congressman Carter Glass of Virginia, who with President Woodrow Wilson added provisions for greater public control.
  • FDR's Republican Treasury Secretary, the unjustly forgotten Will Woodin, calmed the financial markets in 1933 and got both houses of Congress to agree in a single day to an Emergency Banking Act and then to the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act.
When I was working as a financial economist at the Federal Reserve Board in 1964-66, Bray Hammond's history of banking was still fresh in the minds of researchers there. Hammond had been Assistant Secretary to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System through 1950. He  wrote Banking from the Revolution to the Civil War (key chapter posted here) that won a Pulitzer for history in 1958.

Today's Main Street coalition has coalesced in reaction to the 2008 meltdown. It is broad and deep but it is the same coming-together that has stood the United States well since the Revolution.

Glass-Steagall was named after Sen. Glass, now chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and Rep. Henry Steagall of Alabama, chairman of the House counterpart committee. Working under pressure from FDR and Woodin, Glass and Steagall fashioned a law that was a powerful bargain. The banks originally got deposit insurance up to $2,500 per account holder from Steagall in return for strict regulations designed by Glass to separate insured from non-insured financial institutions.

Woodin and FDR were both fully aware of the hazard that investment bankers would try to get access to insured deposits to speculate with, which is why they deeply opposed deposit insurance unless accompanied by strong regulation of banks covered by such government-backed insurance.

Deposit insurance coverage was ultimately expanded. Depositors were allowed to have different insured accounts at the same bank (retirement, joint, etc.). Coverage was raised in steps to $40,000 and, in 1980–in a move that the FDIC itself opposed–to $100,000. The increase to $250,000 was in response to the 2008 meltdown and arguably encouraged the same disregard of risk that caused the meltdown. In practice, when a small bank gets into trouble the FDIC arranges a takeover. If the bank is too big the fail or be taken over, the 2008 Lehman takeaway is that the Fed is likely to finance the bank's losses to preserve the financial system.

Meanwhile, while the regulations installed by Carter Glass lasted more than half a century. Their erosion in steps through 1999 in the name of "modernization" paved the way for the 2008 crisis.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

BLOG READS | 230K Views–Thank You–Most Read

Jan. 28, 2016–Today the CityEconomist blog site just passed 230,000 page views.

All blogs together have passed the 945,000 mark.

Thank you for reading. Here are the Top 10 posts for the past month. 

Thursday, January 21, 2016

FIX THE MIX | Missing Glass-Steagall!

Sen. Carter Glass (D-Va.) (L) and Rep.
Henry Steagall (D-Ala.).
The Democratic candidates in the last debate seemed to agree that the American banking system needs fixing.
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders argued that the erosion of the Glass-Steagall wall between commercial banks and financial speculators was the setting for the 2008 financial meltdown. I think he is right on the mark, although NPR Fact Check (Jim Zarroli) questioned Sanders and Washington Post Fact Checker Glenn Kessler gave Sanders three pinocchios for saying on January 5 that "Glass-Steagall banned commercial banks from making loans to investment banking firms to facilitate their trading in the shadow-banking arena." This suggests that we need to get more of a consensus on what Glass-Steagall actually did.
  • Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has presented a series of proposals to fix Wall Street, although she got two pinocchios for saying "[E]verybody who’s looked at my proposals says my proposals are tougher, more effective, more comprehensive" than Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders’s. Fact Checker Michelle Ye Hee Lee says: "[T]he Sanders campaign has now compiled a list of 60 experts and counting, backing his plan over Clinton’s.” 
As voters, we need to understand what the argument is about. The stock market's collapse since the beginning of 2016 may be in part a sign that the slow implementation of Dodd-Frank reforms is opening up re-emergence of fear about our financial system.

We have not done since 2008 the thorough-going financial market fixup that FDR and his GOP Treasury Secretary William H. Woodin and the Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Senator Carter Glass (D-Va.) undertook in 1933.

Glass-Steagall's Goal: Fix the Mix!

An easy way to remember what Glass-Steagall did is that it was designed to Fix the Mix, i.e., to end the mixing of speculative and deposit-taking activities.

One place to begin is to remember what FDR and Secretary Woodin faced when they opened for business in Washington on Saturday, March 4, 1933.

Most banks had been closed the day before, by order of state governments. Some were bankrupt. The public was panicked about the financial markets. They were afraid that they would never see their bank deposits again. Some of them unfortunately turned out to be right about that.

Then FDR declared a "bank holiday". He closed all the banks for the coming week, and then later extended the holiday for some of the banks. Treasury Secretary Woodin personally supervised round-the-clock printing of greenbacks, complete with cinematic coverage, while teams of his Treasury bank examiners looked at every bank and decided which ones would be pronounced solvent and opened up and which ones would be closed and liquidated, with depositors forever losing full access to their funds.

Meanwhile, House Banking Chairman Rep. Henry Steagall, Democrat of Alabama, carried water for the banks. The banks desperately wanted deposit insurance to prevent future panics and reassure the public and allow the banks to get back to the business of making money. Steagall proposed deposit insurance, and eventually the law created the FDIC and got insurance, initially only up to $2,500 per depositor.

Roosevelt and his Treasury Secretary were at first totally opposed to this deposit insurance. They wanted regulation of the kind that Sen. Glass proposed, a strict prohibition against banks putting at the disposal of investment banks any of their depositors'  funds. Sen. Glass correctly worried that deposit insurance might open up complacency about how banks were investing their money. They all understood that government-enabled insurance of bank deposits would leave the banks free to speculate with depositors' funds because depositors would no longer be afraid of their bank going broke.

Roosevelt, Woodin and Glass were induced to support limited Federal assumption of banking risks in return for Steagall's agreeing to support legislation that Sen. Glass had introduced, creating a wall between banks and speculative financial institutions. Sen. Glass was seeking to protect the Federal Reserve System he had helped create in 1913, when he had Steagall's job. They were all interested in restoring faith in financial markets. At this time, Adolf Hitler was gaining ground in Germany because of the crash of 1929 and the inability of the financial markets to get back on their feet.

The Glass-Steagall Act (the Banking Act) of 1933 had two main parts. One was deposit insurance. This was gradually extended from $2,500 per depositor to $250,000 per account. The other half of the Glass-Steagall bill was regulation of securities firms and separation of investment banks from commercial banks. This that was gutted between 1950 and 2002, especially in 1999. 

Glass-Steagall was about protecting the henhouse assets of FDIC-insured banks from foxes selling speculative securities and generally engaging in risky forward transactions (futures and options). Glass-Steagall was about putting a wall between the humdrum business of taking deposits from consumers and making secured loans back to them, and the risky business of speculating in business equity and debt.

Glass-Steagall split apart two groups of financial institutions–commercial banks and investment banks. Investment banks underwrite and place securities (debt and equity) and they engage in transactions of two kinds:
  • A passive role, helping someone that wants to reduce their risk. 
  • An active role, entering the market with the intent of gambling. In this role, they are creating risks, and the more they disguise a deal to minimize the significance of risks in a transaction, the more dangerous their activity to systemic stability.
Glass-Steagall was designed to reduce market risks in two ways.
  • It provided federal deposit insurance, which reduced the risks for both the banks and their depositors. The banks really wanted this, because when FDR took office the entire banking system was shut down by risks that went sour.
  • It provided for bank regulation to limit the risk to the Federal Government.
The law was strict. No existing mixing of investment banking and deposit-taking banks was permitted by Glass-Steagall. There was no "grandfathering".

Bank Lobbyists' Goal: Add to the FDIC and Mix the Fix!

What has happened since Glass-Steagall?

For the first 50 years, the banks have sought to beef up the Steagall side, to greatly expand Federal deposit insurance. The deposit insurance half of Glass-Steagall has not been eroded; on the contrary:
  • Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage has been beefed up more than 100-fold. The limit has steadily increased from the original $2,500 per depositor to $250,000 per deposit account.
  • Depositors are now allowed to have more than one covered account (sole, joint, custodian etc.), multiplying the coverage further. 
  • Beyond that, the FDIC for efficiency reasons in practice avoids the costly litigation involved in liquidating a bank and instead tries to negotiate takeover over its assets and liabilities by a solvent bank, which in effect means 100 percent coverage of deposits.
Starting under President Reagan, Congress has been mixing the fix, dismantling protections put in place by FDR, Woodin and Glass in 1933, in the name of "modernization". These moves, culminating in the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, lowered the walls between the banks and non-bank institutions, without a corresponding increase in regulation of non-bank financial institutions. When Gramm-Leach-Bliley was passed, the Economist magazine in 1999 expressed concern that deregulating the banks without a broadening of oversight of non-bank institutions of the kind that Britain had undertaken in 1997 was inviting trouble. The Economist was right.

Requiems for Glass-Steagall

1. Warren Gunnels, Sanders’s chief policy aide, is quoted by Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post:  "[C]ommercial banks played a crucial role as buyers and sellers of ... credit-default swaps, and other derivatives. This would not have happened without the watering down of Glass-Steagall in the 1980s and the eventual repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999."

2. Brookings Fellow Phillip Wallach  agrees that Citicorp could never have become such a megabank without Gramm-Leach-Bliley: "That is the best arrow in the Glass-Steagall revivalists’ quiver. Citibank deposits were attached to Citibank bad investments, and Citi was the Too-Big-To-Fail-iest of them all."

3.  James G. Rickards, former general counsel of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund which was brought down by a "black swan," agrees with Sanders that the 1999 law was a bad one and that there was an important cultural shift after Glass-Steagall was repealed. Previously, he said, such shadow-bank loans required permission from the Federal Reserve under rule 4(c)(8). "The presumption was it was illegal unless the Fed said you can do it. After Glass-Steagall, we didn’t have to ask permission, and it enabled the banks to do what they wanted."

4. Camden R. Fine, chief executive of the Independent Community Bankers of America, favors a restoration of Glass-Steagall. He notes that Lehman owned a federally insured industrial loan company (ILC) that held insured deposits: "[T]he repeal of Glass-Steagall gave both commercial banks and investment banks who owned ILCs much greater flexibility to deploy their capital and their deposit funds to whatever purposes they wished, and those firms leveraged themselves many, many multiples of times more than they would have been allowed before."

5. Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker supports the idea that eliminating the Glass-Steagall separation of commercial and investment banking allowed for a trading mentality to take hold at some banks.

6. Harvard B School Prof. David A. Moss in 2009: "[T]he success of New Deal financial regulation [may have] contributed to its own undoing. After nearly 50 years of relative financial calm, academics and policymakers alike may have begun to take that stability for granted. Given this mindset, financial regulation looked like an unnecessary burden."

7. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in October 2008: "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief."

8. John Reed, former Chairman of Citigroup, wrote recently in The Financial Times that the Glass-Steagall wall between banks and investment banks was needed: "As is now clear, traditional banking attracts one kind of talent, […] in many important respects, risk averse. Investment bankers and their traders are […] comfortable with, and many even seek out, risk and are more focused on immediate reward. In addition, investment banking organizations tend to organize and focus on products rather than customers. This creates fundamental differences in values."

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

BANK SINS | Bernanke Says Too Few Execs Indicted

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
Should more bankers have gone to jail over the financial laxity that led to the meltdown of 2008?

Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke says yes.

The problem is, he says, that the Department of Justice has prosecuted Wall Street firms rather than individuals. In Bernanke's view, the firms are "legal fictions" and the malfeasance should have been pinned on the individuals who were profiting from it. But:
You can't put a financial firm in jail. There should have been more accountability at the individual level.
In an interview with USA Today's Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page, related to his new book, Courage to Act, Bernanke says that the worst of the crisis was the so-called "Lehman Weekend" when Lehman Brothers became bankrupt.

He regrets he and his colleagues did not communicate better with the public when they were in the midst of the crisis in the fall of 2008. He repeats a theme of his book, that there was nothing the Fed could do to save Lehman, although at the time he did not say that.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

2008 CRISIS | Fed Couldn't Save Lehman, Says Bernanke

Bernanke Says Now That Fed Was Helpless.
In DealBook today, in the New York Times (p. B1) Andrew Ross Sorkin says:
Mr. Bernanke, in perhaps the most candid explanation of Lehman’s 2008 collapse, writes that he and Henry M. Paulson, then the treasury secretary, purposely obfuscated when asked about Lehman’s demise early on, allowing a narrative to develop that the government had purposely let the firm fail.
 Sorkin quotes from Bernanke's new book:
In congressional testimony immediately after Lehman’s collapse, Paulson and I were deliberately quite vague when discussing whether we could have saved Lehman. But we had agreed in advance to be vague because we were intensely concerned that acknowledging our inability to save Lehman would hurt market confidence and increase pressure on other vulnerable firms.
Pam and Russ Martens conclude that Bernanke is trying to "rewrite the financial crisis".

Thursday, October 1, 2015

JUNK BONDS | How "Terrifying" Should They Be? Notes for FOMC Meeting

Bears to be released from their
cages at the end of October?
On the one hand, some calm voices are reassuring us that the recent downturn in the stock market is historically followed by a recovery. Usually.

On the other, we hear concerns that the sky above the financial markets is about to fall. Junk bonds are viewed as "terrifying" because they have grown so fast in an environment of zero-bound Federal Reserve interest-rate policies.

The fear is that the second rates do start to go up catastrophe may be waiting. Although the expected increase has been continually postponed because the time is not ripe, we have been told that it is likely to happen before the end of 2015.
A zero-interest FOMC diet for bulls
is like spinach for Popeye.

What worries me is that so many people with money are focused intently on the coming rise in interest rates. It has been such a long, long time on Easy Street, when the market bears confined by the assurance provided by a zero-interest bank environment. The possible global market reaction to higher (i.e., positive real) Fed fund rates is scary.

Better a finger tip than an arm.
The Fed, which has been largely sidelined since 2008 by its need to provide liquidity to the panicked financial markets, will feel powerful again when it starts its next upward climb in interest rates.

I hope that, if the upward march of interest rates starts at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28, the Fed begins with the smallest possible increase. Better a finger tip bitten off than a whole arm.