PERRY GERSHON | Primary, June 23

Perry Gershon, Candidate for
the Democratic nomination,
NY-1, June 23 Primary.

I got to know Perry Gershon during his campaign for the Democratic nomination to run in CD-1 against Lee Zeldin two years ago. He won the nomination. At the time, a former Republican, Michael Koegler, endorsed Perry against Zeldin and Perry's four former opponents in the Democratic primary did as well.

In the general election, Perry came within four percentage points of winning. In other words, if two percent of the voters switched from Zeldin to him, Perry would have won.

Perry is running again for the Democratic nomination. Does he have a better chance this year to defeat Zeldin? I think so. He has better name recognition, having been actively campaigning for three years. 

This year, the GOP coattails are not as long as they were two years ago. A major campaign issue in 2018 was the state of the U.S. economy. The Republican candidate had promised that his tax cut would make the U.S. economy soar. Clearly, it didn't happen. 

The 2017 Tax Act gave a huge break to corporations, reducing the tax rate on profits from 35 percent to 21 percent, more than they had asked for. They mostly used the money to buy back their stock. The Tax Act hurt suburban areas like Suffolk County because the cap on the SALT deduction hit middle-class homeowners in New York State, because their taxes are high and they did not benefit from the higher standard deduction or the lowered rates in the top personal income brackets.

Perry Gershon's field campaign staff and volunteers before the coronavirus hit.
That's Perry with the Shiba Inu dog.

When the pandemic hit, the White House was unprepared, postponed action and then came up with unscientific responses. The national economy is now a disaster and a major reason is the poor response of the White House. 

Meanwhile, Zeldin has gained little for Suffolk County in return for his unquestioning  loyalty to the President.  Even before the pandemic hit, in December 2019, Suffolk County lost jobs from a year earlier. Its job growth was in the lowest one-eighth of large U.S. counties.

Even compared with other counties that lost jobs, like Westchester, there was a crucial difference. Incomes in Westchester rose faster than most other counties, whereas Suffolk's income growth was just as bad as its poor job growth. 

So Zeldin's partisan anti-environmental stance did nothing for Suffolk County. His voting record in his last full term was one of the three worst of Members of Congress from New York State; the other two members are no longer serving.

This year we have three good Democratic candidates in the primary on June 23. The question many are asking is which one is most likely to defeat Lee Zeldin. In 2018, as the Democratic nominee, Perry gave Zeldin the closest race of his political career and established himself throughout NY-1 in the process. In the two years since that election, Perry has continued to spend time in the community, building alliances and relationships, particularly in the western part of the district. 

The coronavirus makes it impossible now to replicate the intensive mixing-in that Perry did last summer. He spent the summer of 2019 walking outdoor street fairs and fire department BBQs, meeting constituents, listening to their concerns, and talking about how to improve healthcare, protect the environment and make Long Island more affordable. Beginning in September, Perry started hosting monthly town hall meetings throughout the district, something Congressman Zeldin has refused to do. Perry will have held 11 town halls by the June 23 primary.

Perry is focused on reversing the attacks on healthcare by the Trump Administration. He is appalled that the number of uninsured Americans is rising during the administration of President Trump. COVID-19 has shown just how important it is for everyone that healthcare coverage extends to everyone else. Perry is also staunchly in favor of gun safety and the rights of women in the workplace and over their bodies.

As we come out of our lockdown, we will need to rebuild our economy to be more resistant to infections. Perry knows how that should be done. He has built four small businesses. He started his own sports bar at age 23. Then he went on to a 25-year career in commercial real estate lending, starting up three different real estate lending operations.

Suffolk County is struggling to come out of the current severe recession.  Perry’s experience in starting businesses and creating new jobs means he can play a critical role in the post-COVID-19 recovery.

Perry combines the independence he gets from having succeeded in the private sector with a cooperative approach that means he can work with the many disparate groups that make up NY-1.

Because all three of the Democratic candidates have fine qualities, I have been reluctant to make a pitch for any one of them. One of Perry's opponents is a scientist and we need more of them in the Congress. The other is an elected local official from the East End, and therefore knows this terrain. They have all pledged, as they did in 2018, to support with enthusiasm whichever of the three wins the primary. 

I support Perry because I think he has the greatest ability to defeat Lee Zeldin and make a difference in Washington, D.C.

DE BLASIO | NYC v. Snowstorm

Blizzard of February 2013.

My "Notify NYC" messages from the City of New York are still coming from "Michael Bloomberg". I guess that will be changed tomorrow when City workers are back at their computers.

The word from Notify NYC is that 6-8 inches of snow will fall starting 6 pm tomorrow, January 2, through 1 am Friday. The snow will be accompanied by "low temperatures" which means that the snow will accumulate and some will turn to ice.

Expect salt spreaders. Last year on February 7-9, the first big blizzard of the winter hit New York City and then-Mayor Bloomberg reported he had on hand 250,000 tons to spread on the streets of New York.

A snowstorm happening at the end of a week, on Friday or Saturday, is relatively benign for offices because only one day of work is lost. By Monday the commute is likely to be back to normal. Saturday is a less crucial day for most businesses, obviously excluding retailers and entertainments. During my stint as chief economist for three NYC Comptrollers in 1992-2006, we considered a Saturday economy as three-fourths of a Monday-Friday weekday economy and Sunday was one-fourth of a weekday, so it added up to a six-weekday week.

We estimated the relationship between certain storm variables and economic impact based on historical records. The crucial variables in a snowstorm for determining economic impact are the timing, the precipitation and the temperature. The impact is reduced if the snow is on a weekend, if the precipitation is low (two inches is where trouble can start) and if the temperature is above freezing, 32 F (32 degrees Fahrenheit).

Putting down salt allows the City of New York to reduce the impact of freezing temperature on the ability of commuters to get to work, or shoppers to get to stores. One of the worst scenarios is a slushy snowfall and then a deep freeze, causing icy roads. A snowstorm becomes a blizzard if the snow is driven by the wind.

In the laboratory, adding salt (sodium chloride) to water can bring down the freezing-melting point – depending on which way one is going - from 32 degrees Fahrenheit to 20 F (in the case of a 10 percent concentration of salt) or 2 F (for a 20 percent concentration). In practice, the lower number depends on how much salt one puts down on the roads (the more salt that is added, the higher the salinity percentage and the lower the freezing point of the water). In a lab, the freezing point can be brought down lower than in storm conditions. One source suggests that below 15 F, salt will have little effect.

So salt is only useful to add when the temperature is between 15 F and 32 F. Below 15 F, the salt won’t melt the ice. Above 32 F, ice won't form and the salinized water will just run off into the city sewers.

The preferred remedy for ice in places like Montreal, where I spent much of my childhood, is sand, which helps provide traction to pedestrians and motorists regardless of the temperature. My beloved grandmother Olga van Stockum nonetheless died of hip injuries after falling on Montreal ice in 1949.

Salt has some negative effects on the environment. It corrodes cars and other vehicles and the roads themselves. It is bad for shoes. The runoff is terrible for plants and marine life. Pets that walk outside get the salt on their paws and suffer from the abrasion.

But a big city needs to keep working. So we accept the negative impact of salt. The test is whether the mayor can keep the roads open on Friday morning.

Using Salt to Melt Snow on Roads

I read in the run up to the Big Blizzard that Mayor Bloomberg has 250,000 tons of salt ready to spread on the streets of New York. The blizzard is happening on a late Friday-early Saturday morning, so the impact on the New York City economy is not as significant as it would be if the blizzard were occurring on a Monday morning, thereby disrupting office workers' commute.

From the work I did at the NYC Comptroller's Office in 1992-2006, when I served as chief economist, I know that the crucial variables in a snowstorm for determining economic impact are the timing, the precipitation and the temperature (TPT). The impact is reduced if the snow is on a weekend, if the precipitation is low (two inches is where trouble can start) and if the temperature is above 32 degrees Fahrenheit.

Putting down salt allows the City of New York to reduce the impact of freezing temperature on the ability of commuters to get to work, or shoppers to get to stores. One of the worst scenarios is a slushy snowfall and then a deep freeze, causing icy roads.

In the laboratory, adding salt (sodium chloride) to water can bring down the freezing point from 32 degrees Fahrenheit to several degrees lower. It is hard to define this lower number because it depends on how much salt one puts down on the roads (the more salt that is added, the higher the salinity percentage and the lower the freezing point of the water). In a lab, the freezing point can be brought down lower than in storm conditions.

So salt is only useful to add when the temperature is below the freezing point for salty water - otherwise the salt water will simply run off into the ground or into sewers. By the time temperatures drop, if they do, the salt water is gone.

Similarly, below some temperature, adding salt is a waste because it is below the freezing point of water, unless temperatures are expected to rise above freezing, in which case the salt will speed up melting.

Finally, many people with ecological concerns argue against using any salt at all. Salt is corrosive of vehicles and the roads themselves. The runoff is terrible for plants and marine life. Pets that play outside get the salt on their paws and suffer from the abrasion. Read about this in "Why You Shouldn't Use Salt to Melt Ice."