DANA CHASIN | Omnibus Budget Bill Before the Congress

U.S. Capitol. Photo by JT Marlin.

The following Update 258 from Dana Chasin in Washington, D.C. reports on the Omnibus bill to fund the U.S. government through September. It is posted here by permission.

Update, March 23, 2:30 a.m.: A $1.3 trillion spending bill was passed an hour ago, funding the Federal Government through September 2018. Passed already by the House on Thursday, the bill now goes to President Trump to sign.

Congressional leaders and White House officials reached a deal on H.R. 1625, a 2,232- page, $1.2 trillion [finally $1.3 trillion] fiscal 2018 omnibus spending package.

Top-line figures indicate:
    •    $629 billion in defense discretionary spending
    •    $579 billion in non-defense discretionary spending

The deal increases spending for appropriators by margins not seen since 2010:
    •    $80 billion above prior restrictions for defense-related spending
    •    $63 billion more for non-defense related spending

President Trump’s FY19 budget request proposed cutting $54 billion from the existing non-defense statutory cap. House Republican Appropriations bills were written at a level cutting $5 billion from the total cap.  Following the Republican majorities’ failure to enact Appropriations laws, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 increased non-defense discretionary (NDD) spending by $63 billion.  The omnibus conforms with the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 mandate.

Majority Leader McConnell, Minority Leader Schumer, Speaker Ryan, and Minority Leader Pelosi may adjust these spending numbers and strike the final deal to avert a government shutdown before midnight tomorrow.  The bill would extend the government’s spending cliff to September 30, guaranteeing six months without a major budgetary shutdown.

Negotiation Points and Resolution
The debate around the omnibus focused on a few key provisions each with their own nuances regarding funding levels, disbursement schedules, and administrative issues.  Democrats faired fairly well in these negotiations.

One victory was an item to permit the CDC to study gun violence by incentivizing municipalities to update the NICS database, which is used for background checks. Democrats also beat back attempts by Sens. Collins and Alexander to fund high risk pools in the health insurance marketplace.  Similar provisions: limiting the funding for Trump’s wall to narrow projects, primarily reinforcing and updating existing fencing.

But Democrats are not fully onboard with this bill.

—  there are no DACA protections
—  the Gateway, a key infrastructure project in New York and New Jersey is not directly funded
—  massive increases in military spending outstrip domestic discretionary increases

Freedom Caucus Republicans and Rand Paul are not enthused about this bill as it increases spending by $143 billion; they have said that Speaker Ryan and Majority Leader McConnell left too much on the table.

Policy Riders
Packed into this very large omnibus package are numerous policy riders on issues that run the gambit from health care to labor issues, to environment and more. With respect to economic policy, the following policy riders related to tax, infrastructure, and financial regulation were worked in.

    •    Tax Riders: Apparently, the “meticulous” legislative process surrounding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act missed a few details.

    •    IRS Funding - Despite Trump’s expressed desire to cut IRS funding, this deal increases its budget. The omnibus also allocates $320 million to the Internal Revenue Service to support the agency as it implements the new law. Though the IRS will still be prohibited from auto-completing parts of tax returns, a continued victory for tax preparers like Turbotax. In addition, the base IRS budget was cut by $125 million from 2017 in nominal terms, making the net gain of $195 million.

    •    The Tax “Grain Glitch” Fix - Representatives from farming states have decried a glitch in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that gives farmers greater tax savings if they have sold crops to farm cooperatives at a disadvantage to corporate competitors. Agricultural trade groups pushed Senators like Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Pat Roberts (R-KS) to change this “Grain Glitch”. The proposal, that limits farmers to a 20 percent deduction of their net income from sales to cooperatives, has been included in the omnibus.

    •    Low-Income Housing Tax Credit - In exchange for the “grain glitch” amendment to the GOP tax law, Democrats were able to win an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit by 12.5 percent from 2018 to 2021.

    •    Infrastructure Spending:  The omnibus also includes minimal increases in infrastructure spending. While the funds are badly needed, significantly more funding is needed to address the nation’s crumbling infrastructure.  The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates, conservatively, that Congress will require a $2 trillion investment over the next decade to adequately address the nation’s infrastructure needs.

    •    Spending Increase - The omnibus sets aside $10 billion in new spending for infrastructure including:
           ◦    $2.6 billion more for the Federal Highway Administration
           ◦    $1.2 billion more for the Federal Railroad Administration
           ◦    $600 million for high-speed internet

    •    Dodd-Frank Rider: Just after the Senate passed its bipartisan banking bill, S. 2155, House Republicans continue to take aim at the Dodd-Frank Act in the omnibus bill.  But the financial services rider the GOP won here is of marginal significance, merely requiring the OMB to report on Dodd-Frank’s cost.

    •    Cost Estimates of Dodd-Frank Implementation - The omnibus includes a provision requiring the OMB to report to the Appropriations Committee on the cost of implementing the Dodd-Frank Act.

TAX BILL | Latest on House-Senate Conference

The following is from Dana Chasin in Washington, reposted by permission. (I am in Washington this week as well.) This is his Update 235 on Washington legislation.

This afternoon at the White House, President Trump made one last pitch for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  

Up on the Hill, conferees met to continue trying resolve differences between the House and Senate bills.  

Even as the process is well underway, the conferees know that Americans have picked up on the fact that their promised tax cuts are turning out to be rebates that dwindle over ten years through a series of sunsets. 

When will the initial tax cuts sunset?  Who then gets the tax hikes that follow?  How much does the middle class get in relief, averaged annually over the life of the law?  How many middle class taxpayers are looking a tax hike?

Rebate and Switch

This afternoon, Republican tax negotiators from the House and Senate met to hash out differences in the GOP effort at sweeping reformation of the nation’s tax code.  Unsurprisingly, the meeting was conducted behind closed doors. Republicans point to an ambitious timetable for keeping negotiations out of the public eye, but just as important is the tax bill’s overwhelming unpopularity.

Republicans made grand promises in their sales pitch to the middle class. Americans were told the average middle class family of four earning $59,000 per year would see a tax cut of $1,182 – more than $11,000 over ten years. Even today, President Trump repeated the claim that corporate rate reductions will generate $4,000 in new annual income per household. Simply put, the public is not buying it. As negotiations have worn on and details of the bill have emerged, public support for the bill has plummeted.

The bill would send trillions of dollars to the country’s largest corporations and wealthiest income earners. As of now, the nation’s top income earners would see their individual tax rate fall from 39.6 percent to 37 percent. Corporate taxes are slashed more severely, falling from 35 to 21 percent. Those in the middle and working classes would see their taxes increase. 

As a result, the Republican tax plan is now less popular than the tax hikes passed under Presidents Clinton and H.W. Bush. That the GOP has managed to make tax cuts less popular than tax hikes is signal.  The majority of Americans sees this Republican chicanery as a massive reverse transfer payment financed on the back of the middle class and generations to follow. 

What the Middle Class Actually Gets: Sunsets

Republicans included a number of short-term provisions in order to improve their bill’s distributional optics, but most of these concessions are written in disappearing ink.  While GOP lawmakers were sure to make corporate handouts permanent, many of the individual rate cuts and tax credits disappear by 2025. 

The increased medical expense deduction disappears after 2018. The expanded Child Tax Credit, which Sens. Rubio and Lee loudly pushed for, expires after 2024.  One of President Trump’s favorite provisions, the doubling of the standard deduction, also expires after 2024.

Bottom line: the average family will receive nowhere close to $11,820 in tax relief over the decade ($1,182 times ten).  What starts out as a $1,182 cut in year one transforms into a tax hike as deductions expire and individual rates reset.  By 2027, the wealthiest one percent of Americans will receive an average tax cut in excess of $27,000. That year, the bottom 60 percent of wage earners will face an average tax hike of $160.

In the end, an estimated 87 million families -- almost 40 percent of taxpayers -- will see their tax liability increase.  Per the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, 19 states would pay more overall in taxes. In 14 states, over 1 million taxpayers will face a tax hike.  

Indirect Hikes and Paygo Pain

To make matters worse, millions of Americans will see rising costs indirectly due to provisions in the tax bill unrelated to tax rates:

• The individual mandate penalty repeal alone is expected to increase premiums by 10 percent. This provision would also increase healthcare costs for the 13 million Americans who will lose health coverage as a result of mandate repeal.
• A new Chained-CPI measurement of inflation that would push filers into higher brackets more quickly.

And still worse; the deficit increase of $1.4 trillion has already initiated talks in GOP circles of automatic cuts to critical social programs -- including $25 billion in Medicare cuts in 2018 alone.  At first Republican leaders promised their cut bill would not trigger Paygo cuts, but they have recently changed their tune.  Sen. Rubio, Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady, and Speaker Paul Ryan have all linked tax cuts with welfare reform in recent weeks. 

Where provisions that help the middle class (the child tax credit, the doubled standard deduction, the rate cuts) are made temporary, provisions that hurt the middle class are made permanent.

Source: Tax Policy Center

Permanence for Corporations

The sunsetting of individual rate cuts and other middle class credits and deductions pave the way for permanent business tax cuts. The long-term winners are corporations were the long-term losers are the bottom 60 percent.  Wealthy Republican donors will appreciate the long-term 21 percent corporate rate, while middle and low-income Americans will see a little to no difference in disposable income and maybe substantial cuts to the government programs they count on.  

Next Steps 

Look for the Conference Committee to conclude its work blending the House and Senate versions of the bill by Friday.  The bill will then move to the Senate first for passage most likely on Monday in order to ensure compliance with Byrd Rule budgetary restrictions. The House is scheduled to take up the legislation the day after it passes the Senate. The GOP’s ultimate goal is to have the final bill on President Trump’s desk as early as December 20.

To subscribe to this blog, or its comments, or to search its contents or to forward a post using G+, see the options at top right.

TAX BILL | Details, details

New York City, December 2, 2017 — The Tax Bill has passed the Senate. 

Now the House Republican leadership will seek to take up this bill as passed, to avoid a long conference over the differences between the Senate and House bills.

But will GOP Members of Congress accept all the changes that the Senate made to get to 50 votes? Will the House pass it by the looming December 8 debt-ceiling deadline?

Here are some of the issues facing the House, as outlined in an early-morning email from Dana Chasin, who has been following the proceedings in Washington, used here by permission:

• The Senate grants owners of pass-throughs a deduction rather than a maximum rate, zeroes out the individual mandate penalty, and retains a panoply of deductions eliminated in the House bill.
• The bill is unpopular. This is possibly the least-popular tax package that the Senate has ever passed. A Quinnipiac poll reports only 25 percent of voters approve of it. Representatives will all be facing their constituents in 2018, and many are concerned about how the tax bill will be perceived by voters.
• The December 8 expiration of the debt ceiling and the Alabama special Senate election create deadlines. If the bill is not passed by the House by the 8th, hostility to the bill's impact on the debt and on the GOP's electoral future could overwhelm it.

Some Republican Senators threatened to break ranks over these issues:

• Fiscal (Debt) Impact. Senators Corker and Flake threatened to revolt over the tax plan's debt impact. The standoff came after the Senate parliamentarian shot down Corker’s proposal to insert a “trigger” that would automatically increase taxes in the event the bill did not produce enough growth to cover its deficit impact. Earlier in the day, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) reported that H.R. 1 would add $1 trillion to the debt, even after accounting of dynamic growth effects. The standoff sent leadership scrambling to find ways to raise revenue, but not enough for Corker, who voted against the bill (the sole Republican defection).
• Small Business Treatment. Republican leadership earlier in the week was confronted by  Senators Johnson and Daines, who threatened to withhold their support unless more generous concessions were given to pass-through businesses. Both Senators have indicated their support after the bill was changed to increase the deduction for passthroughs from 17.4 percent to 23 percent. A 23 percent deduction translates into a maximum rate of 29.6 percent, based on the 38.5 percent top rate in the Senate bill. Republicans plan on paying for their generosity by increasing the size of the one-time excise tax on the repatriation of foreign corporate earnings.
• Property Tax Deductibility. Senator Collins, one of the last Republican holdouts, signaled support after announcing that leadership had accepted her amendment to allow individuals to deduct up to $10,000 in state and local property taxes, the same treatment as the tax bill that the House passed last month. Winning Collins’ swing vote came at a steep price. Eliminating state and local deductions is a key revenue raiser for the Byrd Rule-constrained Senate bill. Early indications are that Republicans have opted for keeping a modified version of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) to pay for Collins’ amendments.
• ACA Individual Mandate Repeal. Senator Paul raised eyebrows last month when he announced that the Senate bill would zero out the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate. The provision was needed to buy Paul’s vote and raise perhaps $300 billion in revenue. It was a risky compromise.  Senators Collins, Murkowski, and Moran have all expressed concern about the bill’s treatment of Obamacare. Collins indicated her support of the bill after getting promises on health insurance premiums, Murkowski signed on after an addition of ANWR oil drilling, and Moran never seriously dissented. McConnell's bargaining appears to have paid off. 

While Senators sparred over pass-through deductions and budget holes, few addressed the tax burden that will weigh heavily on the middle class following passage of this bill. The Joint Committee on Taxation’s “dynamic analysis” estimates only a 0.8 percent increase in GDP and just $408 billion generated from economic growth over the next ten years, while other reports provide even lower estimates.

Reps. Ryan and Brady promised to save the average family of four earning $59,000 a year an estimated $1,182. But this works only for the first year of the plan. After that, the cuts decline and the Family Flexibility Credit is phased out and chained CPI (which indexes spending and taxes, slowing adjustment for inflation) reduces future benefits from what they would have been. These families face tax increases in 2024, paying approximately $450 more by 2027. Furthermore, these hikes are expected to affect families earning less than $30,000 in 2019 and less than $40,000 in 2021.

Senator McCaskill noted amendments from lobbyists bundled together as the Manager’s Amendment and geared to expanding pass-through and corporate deductions to various stakeholders. The chances of legislation that favors the middle class receiving such consideration appear bleak.

That this unpopular tax bill could pass the Senate so quickly is astonishing. However, Americans won’t be filing under the new tax system, if it passes, until April 2019 and most Americans won’t suffer a tax increase until after the 2020 election.

To subscribe to this blog, or its comments, or to search its contents or to forward this post using G+, see the options at top right.

TAXES | Using the Budget to Reform

Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming), Chairman
Senate Budget Committee

The following is from Dana Chasin's Update 211, reposted by permission (see last sentence):

Washington, D.C., October 5, 2017 – Today saw two major steps toward Congressional approval of a FY 18 budget resolution. The House passed its 2018 budget resolution providing reconciliation instructions, paving the way for tax reform, on a 219-206 vote, 18 GOP members voting against. And Senate Budget reported out its budget resolution along partisan lines.  

The Senate language allows for a $1.5 trillion deficit increase. The House measure calls for deficit reduction. Reconciliation instructions included in both the House and the Senate resolutions would allow Republican leadership to craft a tax package that adjusts revenues and spending that could be passed with a simple majority in the Senate.  To pass the cuts, Senate Republicans would have to vote in near unison.

The budget resolution's chances of passage and what's at stake are considered below. 

_____________________________________________

In day one of the two-day Senate Budget Committee markup, Senators drilled down tax policy. Republicans attempted to legitimize the Big Six’s policy framework, claiming it was based off bipartisan principles, but Democrats excoriated the proposal for rewarding the wealthy, dramatically increasing the deficit, and increasing taxes for the middle class.  

Stakes: Reconciliation

Senator Bob Corker (R-TN),
Maverick on Senate Budget Committee

Per the House resolution, top lines instructions for 11 House committees require a $213 billion decrease in spending. House Judiciary ($45 billion), Oversight and Government Reform ($32 billion), and Ways and Means ($52 billion) Committees are charged with producing the largest cuts in spending from 2018 to 2027.

Reconciliation instructions now require specific  changes from the Senate. Given debate during the markup session regarding the $470 billion of cuts expected to Medicare, much anxiety revolves around the reconciliation recommendations that will arise from Senate Finance. Sens. Sanders, Harris, and Stabenow led the Committee with the most amendments opposing these cuts. 

FY 18 Spending Top Lines

Today’s Senate budget resolution sets a topline FY18 discretionary spending at $549 billion for defense and at $516 billion for nondefense discretionary. By contrast, the House resolution calls for $621.5 billion for defense and $511 billion for non-defense discretionary spending in FY18  President Trump’s FY18 budget proposed $616 billion in defense, $538 billion non-defense.

The Senate figures represent a decline from the FY17 budget toplines of $616 for defense and $551 for non-defense discretionary spending. The administration and the House are more consistent with last year’s numbers, although the House resolution calls for a slight increase in defense spending matched by a slight decrease in nondefense discretionary spending.

The Senate resolution also calls for $632 billion in nondefense spending cuts between 2018 and 2027. Budget Committee Democrats repeatedly raised concerned that these spending cuts would translate into deep slashes vital social programs. Particularly contentious were proposed cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, Pell grants and Head Start programs, and WIC programming.

Points of Agreement

Today’s markup was anything but bipartisan. Democrats repeatedly introduced amendments to protect social programs, push Republicans towards budget neutrality in tax legislation, and ensure that the CBO analysis of tax proposals. Time and time again, these amendments were either tabled or failed outright – almost always along 12/11 partisan lines... yet another indication that Republicans plan on using a majoritarian route in pursuit of their tax reform agenda.

Sticking Points Going Forward

Yesterday, Sen. Corker indicated an unwillingness to play ball with his fellow Republicans, stating that he would not vote for a tax bill that was not permanent and that added to the deficit. While it is not clear how much he will end up pushing back, his dissent is worth noting – Republicans can only lose two votes on the Senate floor if they want to move their tax plan with reconciliation.

Beyond this, the Senate is unlikely to accept the $203 billion in mandatory cuts to social programs as the House sets out. These differences will have to be addressed in conference for agreement to be reached on a joint budget resolution.

Next Steps and Deadlines

Since the budget resolutions passed on the House floor and through the Senate Budget Committee today, attention turns now to how it will fare on the Senate floor. 

The Senate will address the budget after its return from Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day recess on October 16. Thereafter, the two houses will conference to hash out differences.  Both the House and Senate Budget Committees are to have their recommendations for tax reform submitted by November 13. The reconciliation process and budget for FY 18 must be completed by December 8 in order to avoid a government shutdown.

IMPEACHMENT | July 27 – Judiciary Committee Passes First Article

This day in 1974, the Judiciary Committee of the House of Representatives passed the first of five proposed articles of impeachment of President Richard Nixon. Three were passed. The chronology was as follows:

• 1972 - June – Five men connected with Richard Nixon’s reelection committee, the Committee to Re-elect the President (CREEP), were caught breaking into the Democratic National Committee HQ in the Watergate Hotel in Washington D.C. Investigation revealed illegal activities authorized by senior Nixon staff.
• 1973 - May – The Senate started an investigation into the Watergate scandal. Nixon denied involvement. (In November 1973, he said, “I am not a crook.”) 
• 1974 - April – The Senate requested tapes. Nixon released some, but withheld others, claiming executive privilege.
• July 24 – The Supreme Court rejected executive privilege and ordered Nixon to turn over the remaining tapes. 
• July 27 – Nixon having refused, the Judiciary Committee passed the first of five proposed articles of impeachment against Nixon for obstruction of justice. This article was forwarded to the full House of Representatives, as were two others. This started the process of impeachment, but Nixon was not formally impeached, because:
• August 5 – Nixon released the remaining tapes.
• August 8 – Nixon avoided a full vote on impeachment by the House and then a Senate trial by becoming the first president to resign.

CAMPAIGN$ | Dem Home Stretch for Senate–Heidi's List (Updated Oct. 25, 2016)

Joe Biden warns: The White House is
 not enough.

“If we win the White House and fail to take the Senate, it’s a Pyrrhic victory”–VP Joe Biden, New York City, June 2016

How to Help Democrats 
Win the Senate
 (Updated Oct 20, 2016)

Home-Stretch Tips from 
Guest-Blogger Heidi Fiske 

In the next few years, four Supreme Court justices are likely to retire. As Mitch McConnell has shown us, the Senate can drag its feet indefinitely on confirming a new justice. 

It is essential that Democrats regain control of the Senate. Supporting these candidates, therefore, is more important than almost any race specific to your district.

This year 2016 is an especially good one to try. Democrats will need to gain just 4-5 new seats, while holding the ones they have, to take control, because many more Republicans than Democrats are up for re-election. 

Despite this potential advantage, key races are very very close. On October 11, the NY Times “Upshot” called control of the Senate a 50-50 proposition.  

Each side is fighting hard. Republicans  -- shying away from Trump -- are pouring money and, increasingly, people on the ground into these races. In Missouri, for instance, Democratic candidate Jason Kander announced October 11 that a Republican SuperPac has purportedly already talked to one million Missouri voters in person or on the phone.  

But exhilaratingly, on October 18, the Clinton campaign began transferring $6 million to state parties in seven purple states to help Get Out The Vote for down ballot candidates,  and began putting new resources into red states like Arizona, Missouri and Indiana in an effort to win a landslide. And, according to Politico, Democrats will badly outspend Republicans on TV ads in the eight most competitive Senate races: $81 million versus just $65 million for the GOP.

Democrats need to fight the new GOP push with money and on-the-ground volunteers. 
This memo is written to help you figure out how to do that. It was written by Heidi Fiske 
for posting here. Please send comments and updates to her at heidifi33 [at] aol [dot] com.

What Not to Do

1. Don’t waste your $ and time on California, Illinois, or Wisconsin, because the Democratic challengers are virtually certain to win in these states.
2. And don’t waste resources on Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky and Ohio, because the Democratic challengers are almost certain to lose.
3. Keep an eye on Indiana. It is likely that Democrat Evan Bayh will win, though he seems to be chewing through his earlier significant lead. The state has gotten redder since he left the Senate in 2011 with a serious war chest, which he is deploying here.

Heidi's Top 7 Senate Candidates
Where to Concentrate Your $ and Time

My Top 7 candidates are listed in rank order based on how likely the candidate is to win, as of October 13, 2016. (A more complete challenger list in 15 states follows.)

1. NH Maggie Hassan

Governor of New Hampshire

Special note:  Both parties have poured so much money into this small state that donations may not be half as useful here as volunteering. Race: Some polls put Hassan ahead; others the incumbent Ayotte.  Popular governor vs. popular senator.  Ayotte has recently withdrawn support for Trump; will write in Pence. Key positions: Hassan lists just about everything on her site. The first four are combating opioid crisis; national security; economy, jobs and innovation; education and workforce development.   HF note: Have heard her speak three times; she is likeable and an accomplished governor.  Website: maggiehassan.com To volunteer: http://act.maggiehassan.com/page/s/web_form_volunteer?&source=web_form_volunteer

2. PA Katie McGinty

Former chief of staff to PA governor

Race: McGinty has been slightly behind but is climbing.  Key positions:  protecting environment (worked for both President Clinton and PA governor in key environmental roles); jobs and economy; education; affordable health care; women’s and LGBT rights, protecting SS and Medicare.  HF note:  Have heard twice, once at an event where she was backed by VP Biden. Attractive and vigorous.  Website: katiemcginty.com. Make check to:  Katie McGinty for US Senate and mail to Katie McGinty for US Senate, PO Box 22447, Philadelphia, PA 19110 To volunteer:  katiemcginty.com/volunteer/.

3. NV Catherine Cortez Masto

Former Nevada Attorney General

Race: running to replace Harry Reid, and has his machine behind her, but is about tied with opponent Congressman and Brigadier General Joe Heck, though she is rising.  Key positions: overturning Citizens United; raising minimum wage; protecting Medicare and Social Security; comprehensive immigration reform. As AG she fought meth labs, sex and human trafficking, predatory lending and aggressive foreclosures, scams against seniors. HF note: Have heard her once; impressive. Website: catherinecortezmasto.com. Mail check to: Catherine Cortez Masto for Senate, 8020 South Rainbow Blvd., Las Vegas, Nevada, 89139. To volunteer:  http://catherinecortezmasto.com/contact. Large Filipino population, so tagalog as well as Spanish is useful here. 

4. NC Deborah Ross

Former State Congresswoman

Race: Incumbent opponent ahead but unpopular; Ross not well known, hence volunteering is very important, and her head of volunteers, Sandra Johnson, is superb.  Key positions: for building infrastructure; women’s economic issues (e.g. minimum wage, equal pay and Social Security); solving student loan crisis; gun background checks; LGBTQ rights.  Also for protecting seniors and veterans and overturning Citizens United.  HF note:  have hosted a fundraiser and heard her speak elsewhere and met with her at length as well. Extremely impressive, poised, thoughtful. Website: deborahross.com  Make check to: Deborah Ross for Senate and mail to P O Box 28258, Raleigh, NC 27611. Contribute on-line to https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/drev160919

To volunteer: https://www.deborahross.com/?action=volunteer

5. MO Jason Kander

Missouri Secretary of State

Race: slightly behind incumbent Roy Blunt Key positions:  Advocating for women and African Americans; government accountability; environmental protection; support for small businesses; early childhood education. Wants constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget (!), which strikes me as a far-right, ill-advised fantasy. However as it will never pass, his other qualities make him a standout.    HF note: have heard once. Impressive, young candidate. Website: jasonkander.com Make check to:  Missourians for Kander and mail to Missourians for Kander, PO Box 548, Columbia, MO 65205. To volunteer: http://go.jasonkander.com/page/s/join-jason.

6. FL Congressman Patrick Murphy

Race:  This is such an important state that effort and money are worth it, even though Murphy is consistently seen as behind Marco Rubio, and this is the one close Senate race in which the Republicans have a bigger tv-ad war chest than the Democrats: $9.6 v. $4.2 million. However, Rubio has only 44%, not 50%; Clinton has a slight edge in the state; and Obama has done tv ads for both Hillary and Murphy, including in Spanish. Key positions:  growing the middle class; immigration reform; protecting voting rights; strengthening Social Security and Medicare. HF note:  no personal contact.  [JTM note: Alice and I have attended at least one fundraiser for him and found him to be fiscally knowledgable and alert, and socially liberal; he was the youngest person in the Congress when he was first elected; he has been elected twice with 60% of the vote in a GOP-leaning district.] Website:  www.murphyforflorida.com.  Make check to: Murphy for Florida. Mail to: Murphy for Florida, 4521 PGA Blvd #412,  Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418

To volunteer: https://www.murphyforflorida.com/get-involved/

7. AZ Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona Congresswoman 

Special note: Ann Kirkpatrick seriously lags John McCain in most polls. Also, not only does he have universal name recognition, but, because of his Senate seniority, through his committee assignments he controls a lot of benefits for Arizona. 

However, I am such a fan of Ann Kirkpatrick herself, her broad and well-organized campaign on the ground, and her money-raising team that her race is listed here as one to support. 

And she has some new advantages. McCain has said he will veto any Hillary Supreme Court nominee, which is bound to hurt him. Hillary is making a major push to take this Red State, with Michelle Obama campaigning for her there. Ann raised $3 million in the 3^rd quarter. At the very least, help to her now can tee up another run in 2018, when Jeff Flake’s seat will be up.

Key positions: pro choice, pro LGBTQ rights, fighter for veterans, paid maternity leave, immigration reform, Affordable Care Act. HF note:  We have met twice at length, plus I gave a fundraiser for her, and was on the host committee for a second, so I have a good feel for her. Sweet, shrewd, down-to-earth, honest, compassionate. The word people at both fundraisers used most often to characterize her was “impressive.” Website: kirkpatrickforsenate.com  Donate online at https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/akesplash?recurring=true&refcode=website

Make check to: Kirkpatrick for Senate and mail to Kirkpatrick for Senate, PO Box 34421, Phoenix, AZ 8506 To volunteer:  http://www.kirkpatrickforsenate.com/landing/volunteer/

15 Dem Challengers
In State Alphabetic Order

Dem Challengers are seeking to fill a Republican-held or vacant seat.

Table Column Headings

• C or O? Challenger, or Open seat? (“Open” means the incumbent is not running)
• DSCC: Endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which backs candidates in races they think are important, and winnable but not sure, hence where money is likely to have the most impact.
• EMILY’s List: Endorsed by EMILY’s List
• DFA: Endorsed by Democracy for America, whose candidates tend to be very progressive. (DFA backed Bernie for President.)

How to Donate: ActBlue or Check?

If you like donating frequently with small amounts, then ActBlue and other intermediaries are useful in reducing the administrative burden for campaigns of taking credit card charges and having to comply with reporting requirements for gifts. The greater frequency of small donations allows for faster feedback to candidates on how they are doing. However, donating by check keeps your email address more private and more of your money gets to the candidate without the haircuts taken by your credit card company and ActBlue.

CAMPAIGN$ | Giving to Senate Races (Superseded)

This post is kept up to maintain links. It is superseded by this one: http://cityeconomist.blogspot.com/2016/10/campaign-tips-for-dem-control-of-senate.html