BRANDING | Will Obama Skill Rub Off on USA?

Will the American brand improve under President-Elect Obama? AdAge is running a poll right now. Positive responses are sweeping the field. And why not? We know Obama is tremendously popular overseas. He's a citizen of the world.

More than that, Obama has shown he knows how to handle his own brand. He stayed on message, whereas McCain's Most Vicious Attack Was on His Own Brand Name (Bob Garfield, 11.10.08):

Country second. Political expediency first. Strategic rigor about 18th. My friends, what a terrible campaign. John McCain lost the election for many reasons: Bush's failed presidency, the economy, the Wall Street meltdown at the most inopportune time, the disastrous bet on towering ignoramus Sarah Palin, and not least the lavishly financed, nearly flawless campaign by his opponent, already a singular figure in American political history. Still, strategically and executionally, it was not merely a disaster; it was an embarrassment -- whatever "it" was, because "it" was a moving target. Over the course of two months, McCain's marketing messages were, variously: 1) Country first. 2) Maverick. 3) Don't listen to those ridiculous, un-American, liberal, intellectual, coastal elites. 4) Barack Obama is a superficial celebrity. 5) Tested. 6) Change. 7) Obama is a dangerous unknown quantity. 8) Obama is a socialist. He should have stopped after No. 2, exactly as Obama never stopped talking about the economy, health care and education over and over and over and over no matter what flak the Republicans were shooting in his direction. He was relentless, McCain was reactive.

McCain’s agency was Foxhole Productions in Arlington, Va.

Obama Fundraising a First, Says Election Commission Chairman

Thanks to Congressional Quarterly for noting today ("Obama’s Operation May Become the Model of Fundraising") the comments of former Federal Election Commission Chairman Bradley A. Smith in a Washington Post op-ed piece a week before the election.

Brad Smith was commenting on the fact that the campaigns of both Barack Obama and John McCain had exceeded $800 million in combined spending two weeks before Election Day. The CQ story emphasizes that "It’s not just the amount of money that was spent but also the way it was raised — much of it online, in small chunks and, in Obama’s case, completely independent of the public financing system for the first time in the post-Watergate era."

Smith, in his op-ed, says: "I’ve studied all the great fundraisers of the past, from William McKinley to Richard Nixon to George W. Bush. American politics has never seen anything remotely like this before.”

Smith is overtly partisan - he was a Republican appointee. The online discussion of Obama's citizen "juggernaut" is all the more interesting. He thinks the system has worked, even though his candidate was losing. Here are some excerpts.

Arlington, Va.: Just to counter some of the paranoid posts -- I'm one of those small donors that you fear so much. In <> early September I became so disgusted with the McCain/Palin campaign that I went to Obama's Web site and made a donation. I since have made two additional donations. All three were responses to something that was said by the McCain/Palin campaign. In all I've given less than $100. I was born in the U.S. and have lived here all my life, and despite various Republican's claims I'm not a communist or anti-American. I'm just a regular person who has every right to vote and to support a candidate with my time and money.

Bradley A. Smith: I wish more people thought like you -- not your support for Obama ;-), but regarding your motives for supporting Obama and your willingness to back up your beliefs.

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Reston, Va.: McCain keeps saying that Obama is trying to buy the election. Isn't it more like the citizens are? They're the ones contributing the money.

Bradley A. Smith: Right on!

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Wilmington, N.C.: "Former FEC chairman." Given your obvious political leanings, I must say I find that very disturbing. Is that a partisan political post? Should it be?

Bradley A. Smith: The FEC has six commissioners, with no more than three from any one political party. Four votes are needed for most action. So one party can't dictate outcomes. I found that the Commission worked pretty well. But you've really hit the nail on the head -- how can you maintain over time a truly unbiased political police? That's why I generally would deregulate the system, or at least start in that direction. We need separation of campaigns and state, you might say.

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Maryland: The other day a friend and I were having a friendly argument. He was saying there should be more rules to limit how much a campaign can spend because $200 million is outrageous. I said "$200 million is rock-bottom cheap for a good presidential administration!" It's just a fifth of a billion dollars -- compare that to the cost of the Iraq war. Just saying.

Bradley A. Smith: You are right. Political spending needs to be kept in perspective. Americans will spend about $12 billion on potato chips this cycle. Coca-Cola will spend more on advertising this year than will be spent by all the candidates who have run for president combined. Auto makers will spend more than twice as much this year advertising cars as all political spending for federal office. It cost money to communicate, whether you are talking about cars, cola or politicians.

AdAge: Obama Makes Marketing History

On October 6, I posted on Huffington Post an analysis from my friend Patt Cottingham that impressed me. She limned seven cogent reasons why the Obama brand was better than McCain's. See Brand Expert Scores Obama v. McCain 7 Ways.

Now Obama has been elected President and AdAge announces today that November 4, 2008 is the biggest day for marketing in universal history. President-Elect Obama's "Change" theme gets this all-time cosmic award. Here's the picture (as if you need to see another) and what AdAge had to say about it.

Take a relatively unknown man. Younger than all of his opponents. Black. With a bad-sounding name. Consider his first opponent: the best-known woman in America, connected to one of the most successful politicians in history. Then consider his second opponent: a well-known war hero with a long, distinguished record as a U.S. senator. Obama owns the 'change' idea in voters' minds. It didn't matter. Barack Obama had a better marketing strategy than either of them.

Barack Obama used "Change" as the "big truth."

If you tell the truth often enough and keep repeating it, the truth gets bigger and bigger, creating an aura of legitimacy and authenticity. Hillary Clinton first tried "experience." When she saw the progress Mr. Obama was making, she shifted to "Countdown to change." Then when the critics pointed out her me-too approach, she shifted to "Solutions for America." What word is associated with Ms. Clinton today? I don't know, do you?

AdAge gives three marketing reasons for the triumph of Obama's campaign:
1. Simplicity. About 70 percent of the population thinks the country is going in the wrong direction. Hence a smart focus on "change."
2. Consistency. Most advertisers try to "communicate". They should be trying to "position" consistently.
3. Relevance. "If you're losing the battle, shift the battlefield." Obama forced his opponents to devote much of their campaign time discussing changes they proposed for the country and showing why they were different from Obama's.

GREEN EDGE | Marathon Waste

Nov. 2, 2008–The NYC Marathon today is going to produce 130 tons of waste. This year the NY Road Runners Club is recycling the gallon jugs used for dispensing water. They didn't used to, and the jugs were thrown out with NYC's waste.

The Road Runners are looking into charging runners a license fee to be auctioned off the way seat-license fees are auctioned off by the Jets. If the runners are willing to pay such a fee, some part of the revenue should be allocated to making the NYC Marathon a model of waste reduction and recycling. Although some Asian (Singapore, Hong Kong) marathons have had environmental themes, marathons in many cities have been slow to embrace environmentally friendly practices.

The NYC Marathon might have its recycling etc. practices third-party certified against an environmental standard. The Rainforest Alliance in NYC has been involved with standard-setting and certification and could help.

STATE AND LOCAL FINANCE | Critical Federal Reforms Needed

Whether Obama or McCain gets elected on Tuesday, an early issue for the new president is the fiscal crisis facing state and local governments. Beleaguered officials have watched July-September revenues come in lower than expected while financial markets have become more risk-averse. They have been trooping to the Congress already - expect them to start pressing the President-elect after the election.

The fact is, the Federal Government is the only one of America's 87,500 governmental units that can print money. A Federal response could be to provide short-term fiscal assistance in exchange for commitment for structural changes that will bring state and local revenues and expenses into balance and will bring debt service below a reasonable ratio to a multi-year average of tax revenues.

It's not just that states and localities have seen revenues decline. Many pension funds that have invested heavily in equities and appeared to have adequate funds to pay pension obligations now look grossly underfunded. The loss in value of pension-fund assets invites further questions about pension-fund accounting. In many cases the answers to these questions will distress pensioners, taxayers and investors in municipal debt. When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

In New York State, Gov. David Paterson has a clear understanding of New York State's fiscal outlook. He has just raised his forecast of the budget gap facing the state this fiscal year to $1.5 billion from the $1.2 billion the state projected weeks ago. States and localities are not permitted to run deficits, so Gov. Paterson has asked the state legislature to meet Nov. 18 to close the budget with decisions that will raise more revenue and cut spending. He says nothing will be off the table and he sounds as though he means it.

New York State's problem is huge and gets worse next year and the year after. Borrowing to fund current deficits faces (appropriate) legal obstacles and would be a hard sell. Muni markets are opening up again, but with the loss of credibility of the mni bond insurers, rates are higher.

The only options seem to be to cut budgeted expenses or raise taxes. California is in a similar bind and, despite budget cuts made earlier this year, more than 20 states have identified budget gaps that combine to exceed $11 billion.

The U.S. Treasury is an attractive option for budget-closing loans. States and localities cannot run deficits but Washington can. State and local officials and their Congressional allies can argue that their problems stem from failures of Federal regulation of financial markets and that if banks can be bailed out, why shouldn't Washington provide short-term help to state and local governments?

I imagine the National Governors Association and the U.S. Conference of Mayors are working hard on this question right now.

Washington's challenge - Obama's or McCain's challenge - will be to respond in such a way that the short-term pain of state and local fiscal adjustments is reduced while changes in long-term fiscal practices are made. Federal crisis assistance to state and local governments should come with conditions that are as thought-through and as tough as new regulations being prepared for the financial sector.

Poll: McCain Is Losing Because of the Economy

2 a.m. EST: An AOL poll shows a majority of more than 200,000 respondents saying that John McCain can still win on November 4, eight days from now. The poll asks: "What should a McCain comeback strategy focus on most?" Of the 160,000 respondents, 54 percent believe that he should focus on economic solutions. Only 20 percent say McCain should focus on his experience, only 18 percent say he can succeed by attacking Obama. (Only 8 percent say there is some other formula for a McCain victory.)

Comment: As forecasts of a deep global recession grow and some sober economists (like Harvard Professor Greg Mankiw in Saturday's But Have We Learned Enough?) say an economic downturn rivaling the Great Depression can't be ruled out. McCain needed to position himself as a leader offering different economic solutions from the Bush Administration. The AOL poll suggests that McCain's inability to cobble together such a plan is Obama's greatest strength. If he is so experienced, the electorate seems to be asking, why isn't McCain able to explain what he would do differently from George W. Bush about the economy?

6 a.m. EST: More than 183,000 responses. Economic solutions, 54 percent. McCain's experience, 19 percent. Attacking Obama, 18 percent. Other, 9 percent.