CHINA | Seeking Influence in Latin America

July 29, 2018–The New York Times today has a three-page lead article on “China’s long, quiet push into Latin America.” 

This was the subject of a post five months ago by Heidi Fiske. Heidi’s article focuses on Mexico.

https://cityeconomist.blogspot.com/2018/03/heidi-fiske-risk-of-trumps-trashing.html.  

GOP TAXES | Three House Bills

The following update on new tax bills before the Congress is by Dana Chasin, posted here by permission.

House Ways and Means Committee Chair Brady is on a mission to make tax cuts a winning issue for Republicans in the fall.  His legislative vehicle is “Tax Reform 2.0.”

The problem is that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) bill [signed last December as the Tax Act of 2017 (after conferencing the original title was made generic)–JTM] has been less popular than expected.

Most Republicans up for re-election have given up even mentioning it on the campaign trail.  The original tax cuts contained embarrassing mistakes and the many and sizable kinks still need to be ironed out with a technical corrections act in the works.

Republicans in the House are now marching on with a new trilogy of tax bills that they hope will resonate with their voters in November, while the Senate leadership sees no urgency.  What comprises this trilogy and what are its prospects?

Recent Legislative Developments

Chair Brady indicates that House Republicans are planning to divide the package into three separate bills: permanency, savings, and innovation.  Dividing the bills increases the chances that they are passed, if not all together, then separately, but creates a false illusion that they won’t aggressively try to pass all three. Ways and Means is set to mark up the bills in mid-September with the intention of passing them by the end of that month. In the Senate, the package is unlikely to be taken up before the lame duck session.

President Trump’s tax cuts, which permanently reduced the standard corporate rate from 35 to 21 percent, have already had a considerable negative revenue effect, with the New York Times reporting this week that “the amount of corporate taxes collected by the federal government has plunged to historically low levels in the first six months of the year, pushing up the federal budget deficit much faster than economists had predicted.”

While corporate tax payments between January and June fell by 33 percent compared with the same period last year, corporate tax receipts as a share of the economy have fallen to 1.3 percent, nearing a 75-year low.

The Road to Hell is Paved with Permanence

Tax Reform 2.0 is a decisively political move by Republicans to make permanent the changes they enacted in 2017 that are set to expire at the end of 2025 and to introduce other tax changes.  Although there is still no bill language, the rhetoric around the release implies that Republican leadership wants to perpetuate all of the individual income tax changes in the TCJA. These changes include:

• tax cuts for individuals and pass-through businesses
• SALT deduction cap [$10,000 for married couples filing jointly]
• Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) cut
• standard deduction and child tax credits

Republicans are working on the idea that it will be hard for Democrats to vote against making the individual tax cuts permanent. They believe it is harder for Democrats to vote against individual tax cuts than the corporate ones that were included in TCJA. They also include a variety of new proposals designed to appeal to Democrats.  

A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing

The new proposals in Tax Reform 2.0 are meant to provide benefits to the middle class at a comparable significance to those in TCJA that clearly favored the wealthiest Americans. These proposals aimed at the middle class are divided into two categories – savings and innovation.

     Savings. Tax savings are generated by three expansions of tax-favored savings accounts:

• Creating a Universal Savings Account (USA), which is basically a significantly improved Roth Individual Retirement Account (Roth-IRA), that individuals could contribute some of their after-tax income to annually – there is speculation on income contribution limits but nothing has been confirmed yet.  Withdrawals from the USA could be made at any time or for any reason without tax or penalty. Like a Roth-IRA, the USA’s earnings would not be subject to tax. The goal is to incentivize Americans to save more.
• Expanding the popular, tax-free 529 college savings accounts so it could also be used to pay for apprenticeship fees and home schooling expenses, as well as student debt.
• Allowing workers to tap into their retirement savings accounts without penalty to cover expenses from the birth of a child or an adoption.

    Innovation. So far there is only one clearly identified idea under this category–permitting start-up businesses to write off more of their initial costs to remove barriers to growth.

Although these measures seem to help the middle class, they are unlikely to be sufficient to offset higher interest rates on mortgages and student and car loans as the result of the ballooning deficit resulting from TCJA’s tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.

A Tax Cut Catastrophe

Some of the provisions in the Tax Reform 2.0 package would put a further strain on tax revenues at a time when social benefit systems are in dire need of assistance. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that extending the individual tax cuts would increase deficits by an additional $650 billion—this at a time when social security had to dip into its trust fund for the first time in 36 years and the federal budget deficit is set to surpass $1 trillion two years earlier than estimated, by 2020.

The TJCA was clear in its “reverse Robin Hood” regressivity. Tax Reform 2.0 is not as blatant, but enacting more provisions that deprive the federal government of vital tax revenue that it needs to fund critical social services is socially irresponsible.

Tax Reform 2.0 also includes provisions that allow for more cuts to the deduction for owners of noncorporate businesses known as “pass-throughs” and larger exemptions to the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax for individuals. Given the predilection of the well-to-do for tax avoidance, this reform makes policies permanent that encourage such activities and suggest that gaming the system is not only good, but recommended. In fact, the lower the pass-through rate, the more attractive abusing the tax code becomes.

Political Lens

With the 2018 midterm election looming, House Republicans are eager to make their individual tax cuts permanent before the Democrats take back control (knock on wood) and they are no longer able to. Were that to happen, at the end of 2025, corporate tax breaks would remain in place and individual tax cuts would expire, making for very bad optics for the Republican party, if it exists then. So even though Chair Brady is planning to introduce the package as three separate bills, passing the permanency of individual tax cuts will be crucial for him and the future of his party.

Sen. McConnell seems to have hit upon a legislative strategy that serves both Senate and House Republicans regarding Tax Reform 2.0.  The House will pass the bills as a package and be able to pick up political capital; Republican senators (who are in un-gerrymandered and therefore more purple jurisdictions) won’t have to take a difficult vote on these bills before the midterms.  Sen. McConnell won’t take the GOP trilogy up until the lame duck session, enabling the House to have its cake (have its vote), while the Senate doesn’t have to eat it too (swallow a tough vote).

UBER, LYFT | Adding to Congestion (Update Nov. 2, 2018)

In 2015 and 2017, I posted on the fact that traffic congestion on New York City streets seemed to me to be rising pari passu with  the growth of the online ride-hail services like Uber and Lyft.

A new report confirms this hunch:

• About 60 percent of ride-hail company users “in large, dense cities would have taken public transportation, walked, biked or not made the trip” if those services had not been available.
• The other 40 percent of users would have taken their own car or a taxi.
• As a result of rides replacing mass-transit trips, the ride-hall services put 2.8 new vehicle-miles on the road for each mile of personal driving they take away. 
• It amounts to a 180 percent increase in driving on city streets.

The report was prepared by transportation consultant Bruce Schaller. Read more in The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities.

My point was not that the ride-hail services should necessarily be restricted, but that we can expect more congestion as they grow and we need to prepare.

We need a decongestant stronger than Vicks.

UPDATE, November 2, 2018
Uber and Lyft present themselves as replacing private cars. But in fact accumulating evidence suggests that they are positioning themselves as an alternative to public transit and are making congestion worse. Read this:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/uber-and-lyft-say-theyre-solving-traffic-while-making-it-worse_us_5bdb3662e4b0da7bfc181c32

THE HOUSE | Meanwhile, Back in Congress, These Bills Passed

L to R: Democrat Maxine Waters Ranking
Member, Financial Services Committee,
and Chairman Jeb Hensarling (GOP).

The following is from Dana Chasin, posted by permission. He calls it "Update 286: If at First You Do Succeed..."

On Monday, a package of financial regulatory measures (deregulatory in aggregate effect), cleared the House overwhelmingly.

These bills have joined other bills passed by the House among bills on the Senate’s post-recess floor time queue. JOBS 3.0 raises non-Dodd-Frank issues. It also also raises S. 2155 on a smaller scale, with something for everyone to loathe or love.

(Next Tuesday, July 24, Americans For Financial Reform sponsors:  “Regulating Wall Street - Ten Years Later.” Senators Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren are among the participants.  To RSVP, click here.)

JOBS Act 3.0

This week, House Financial Services Chair Jeb Hensarling and Ranking Member Maxine Waters announced a bipartisan agreement on the terms of a broad regulatory rollback package.  (Hensarling interview is here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-23/rep-hensarling-says-more-deregulation-by-midterms-is-very-realistic-video.)

The legislation, entitled S.488, the JOBS and Investor Confidence Act of 2018 (or Jobs Act 3.0), is the most comprehensive package of changes to federal securities laws to pass the House with broad and bipartisan support since Congress approved the JOBS Act of 2012.  [NB: in 2015, Congress enacted a much smaller set of tweaks to securities laws as part of broader transportation reauthorization legislation, which some have dubbed “JOBS Act 2.0”.]

S.488 is comprised of 32 previously introduced bills, the vast majority of which have cleared the House or the Financial Services Committee.

This third iteration of the JOBS Act has many of the hallmarks of the JOBS Act of 2012.  It combines a number of disparate and seemingly innocuous pieces of legislation that relax or moderate various existing regulatory requirements relating to U.S. capital markets, in particular, the issuance and sale of securities.

The House passed the package on a 406-4 vote on Tuesday with bipartisan support, including from Ranking Member Maxine Waters and Chairman Jeb Hensarling. It looks like the Senate will consider the bill during the summer.

Public-Private Market Paradox

The JOBS Act 3.0 package contains provisions that simultaneously seek to encourage growth in the public market, while cutting back on regulations in the private market.

The bills include:

H.R.79: The HALOS Act permits issuers of private securities that are exempt from SEC registration requirements pursuant to SEC Rule 506(b) to also be exempt from certain restrictions on the use of general solicitation in the advertising and sale of such securities, further weakening investor protections in a segment of the market that is growing rapidly but plagued by fraud.

Private securities markets are appropriate for certain types of issuers and investors, but they are inherently problematic, given that they are characterized by significant risk -- lack of liquidity, oversight and transparency.  The private nature of these markets also makes it difficult for investors other than large institutional investors or venture funds to obtain information about the security, or otherwise value the security.

H.R.5877: The Main Street Growth Act lays the statutory foundation for the establishment of one or more “venture exchanges.” The Act sets forth a process under which any national securities exchange registered with the SEC can “elect” to become a venture exchange, which is subject to different standards and rules than those that govern all other national securities exchanges in the United States.

The venture exchange provisions in S.488 build upon provisions enacted in Section 501 of S.2155 that dramatically changed the way securities can be recognized as “covered” and exempted from state review by virtue of being listed on a national securities exchange. Taken together, the two provisions will ensure that certain national exchanges in the U.S. will likely operate with significantly lower listing standards than those that currently apply to national exchanges.

H.R.6177: The Developing and Empowering our Aspiring Leaders (DEAL) Act requires the SEC to allow venture capital funds to invest in secondary market shares of venture capital companies instead of primary offerings, complementing the "venture exchange" piece of the larger bill by basically creating an ecosystem for trading shares in private venture companies.

This Act, together with the HALOS and Main Street Growth Acts, further blurs the distinction between public and private securities markets, expanding the “quasi-public” securities market that was the major legacy of the JOBS Act of 2012, and making it more likely that retail investors will soon be solicited and sold securities that are in many respects more speculative and risky than is currently permitted under the securities laws.

H.R.1645: The Fostering Innovation Act ostensibly aims to encourage IPO formation by doubling the time that low-revenue emerging growth companies (EGCs) are exempt from key financial reporting controls. However, the Act is predicted to affect less than 2 percent of publicly traded companies and is therefore unlikely to have a discernible effect on increasing the amount of IPOs. Crucially, the bill gives special treatment to EGCs, opening the door for other issuers to demand the same and potentially precipitating a “special treatment” race to the bottom. The long-term effect of lowering the bar for a few is that the bar gets lowered for all.

A Work in Progress

H.R.1585: The Fair Investment Opportunities for Professional Experts Act sets in statute the definition of an “accredited investor” and codifies the current thresholds for annual income and net worth. The bill would create new qualitative pathways for individuals to become accredited and attempts to address the $1 million asset threshold that was originally set by rule in 1982 by indexing it to inflation every five years. However, even with the inflation adjustments, the bill would see retirees with no experience or sophistication in investment matters qualifying as “accredited investors” by virtue of their retirement savings, or wealth realized from an event such as an inheritance or the sale of a primary residence. This bill could be amended to rectify these important issues in the Senate, but in its current form, it is an example of the unbalanced nature of some of the bills in the JOBS 3.0 package.

Where most bills in the package relate to capital markets access, two pertain to the systemic risk pillars of stress testing and resolution planning.

H.R.4566: The Alleviating Stress Test Burdens to Help Investors Act exempts nonbank financial institutions from DFA company-run stress-testing requirements.

H.R.4292: The Financial Institution Living Will Improvement Act requires banks to submit resolution plans every two years instead of annually. These measures mimic what regulators may already decide with newfound discretion under S.2155.

Improvements to JOBS Act 3.0

JOBS Act 3.0 is modest compared to its predecessors, but underwent significant changes during its crafting. Therefore, in some cases, the bills that have been incorporated in the package are different than the previous iterations. The package has been welcomed by some institutions, such as the Council of Institutional Investors, for its provisions that address insider trading and multiclass share structure disclosure.

Unfortunately, the speed with which the package is and has been moving has made it difficult for those on and off the Hill to properly evaluate its benefits and risks. With so many moving parts, JOBS Act 3.0 needs time to be fleshed out and examined more thoroughly before concrete suggestions can be made. This is likely post-August recess.

Political Developments/State-of-Play

S.488 now moves to the Senate. With the legislative schedule packed with nominations, appropriations bills, and the Farm bill,  Senate Majority Leader McConnell announced that “Senators will continue their ongoing bipartisan discussions as we work towards a vote in the coming months.”

Other Senators have indicated the negotiations and busy schedule could push the floor debate for at least three to four weeks.  Look for the package to reach the Senate floor after the summer recess, perhaps attached to a funding or appropriations bill, or as standalone legislation.

MCCAIN | Trump "Abased" before Putin "Tyrant"

SASC CHAIRMAN JOHN McCAIN 

ON TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING

Senator John McCain, Chairman,
Senate Armed Services Committee

Washington, D.C.  July 6, 2018 – U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, released the following statement today on President Trump’s meeting and press conference with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki:

“Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate. But it is clear that the summit in Helsinki was a tragic mistake.

“President Trump proved not only unable, but unwilling to stand up to Putin. He and Putin seemed to be speaking from the same script as the president made a conscious choice to defend a tyrant against the fair questions of a free press, and to grant Putin an uncontested platform to spew propaganda and lies to the world.

“It is tempting to describe the press conference as a pathetic rout – as an illustration of the perils of under-preparation and inexperience. But these were not the errant tweets of a novice politician. These were the deliberate choices of a president who seems determined to realize his delusions of a warm relationship with Putin’s regime without any regard for the true nature of his rule, his violent disregard for the sovereignty of his neighbors, his complicity in the slaughter of the Syrian people, his violation of international treaties, and his assault on democratic institutions throughout the world. 

“Coming close on the heels of President Trump’s bombastic and erratic conduct towards our closest friends and allies in Brussels and Britain, today’s press conference marks a recent low point in the history of the American Presidency. That the president was attended in Helsinki by a team of competent and patriotic advisors makes his blunders and capitulations all the more painful and inexplicable.

“No prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant. Not only did President Trump fail to speak the truth about an adversary; but speaking for America to the world, our president failed to defend all that makes us who we are—a republic of free people dedicated to the cause of liberty at home and abroad. American presidents must be the champions of that cause if it is to succeed. Americans are waiting and hoping for President Trump to embrace that sacred responsibility. One can only hope they are not waiting totally in vain.”

###

Permalink: https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2018/7/statement-by-sasc-chairman-john-mccain-on-trump-putin-meeting
See also: http://www.businessinsider.com/mccain-trump-remarks-with-putin-press-conference-statement-2018-7

OTTAWA | Fiddlers in The Glebe

Backyard Music Festival for Randal's 80th.

OTTAWA, July 15, 2018–The impromptu orchestra assembled in the back of Randal and Elaine's house in The Glebe to celebrate Randal's 80th birthday.

Under the shade of a gazebo and an umbrella, a steady stream of liquid refreshment flowed.

Music

The music went on from 2 pm to 7 pm. At its peak five fiddlers were going, three guitars and the keyboard.


A fine flautist was also contributing to the Irish-themed music early on.

Players filtered in and out, but the keyboard player and a couple of other players were there from beginning to end. Near the end, Randal's violin teacher, Master Violinist Denis Lanctot joined in.

Here are two clips of the music, the first one with dancing! The dancers are Pat Steenberg in black and white and Michele Pronovost in the dress. The music is "Barnburners' Jamboree" and "Maple Sugar."

Birthday Cake

L to R: Randal Marlin, Sneezy Waters and 
Vince Halfhide (legendary musicians
 in Ottawa for decades), Irene 

McCloskey on keyboard, Alex Marlin.

With Randal on the fiddle and two of his sons, Alex and Nick, on the guitar and singing, the family was a music festival of its own.

Then the birthday cakes were brought out. Another movie clip of that.

Marlin Family Photo

At the end of the day, the family assembled for a photo first of Randal and Elaine's six children, three boys and three girls (now men and women), and then the whole family of eight.

Catherine, daughter and youngest child of Elaine and Michael Schintgen, also got into the group photo.

Here are the names of the six children and three grandchildren:

• Christine Marlin Schintgen (married to Michael Schintgen), of Barry's Bay, Ontario. Children: Carl, Eric, Catherine.
• Alex Marlin, of Toronto.
• Greg Marlin, of Ottawa.
• Nick Marlin, of Ottawa.
• Laura Marlin, of Calgary, engaged to be married later in July to Emanuel Côté.
• Marguerite (Margie) Marlin (married to Myles Dunn), of Ottawa.

L to R: Elaine Marlin, Randal Marlin, Christine and Catherine (one of
three children) Schintgen, Laura Marlin, Greg Marlin, Margie Marlin,
Alex Marlin and Nick Marlin.

See also: Two Poems for Randal from Clyde Sanger . There Is No Planet B

OTTAWA | Randal's 80th Birthday, 2 Poems

Clyde Sanger (L) reads out his poem honoring
Randal's 80th. The Sangers and Marlins edited
 and wrote for the Glebe Report. L to R: Sanger, 
his assistant Emma, Pierre Pronovost, Anna
Barantseva, Nick Marlin, Randal Marlin, Michèle
Pronovost, Julianna Ovens, Sinclair Robinson.

OTTAWA, July 15, 2018–My brother Randal and his wife Elaine celebrated his 80th birthday yesterday with an afternoon of feasting and music in The Glebe.

In the interest of full disclosure of the Truth, which is always a concern of my brother, I should say at the outset that Randal's 80th birthday was really in January.

But he has found over the years that invitations to come to Ottawa in January when people are in, say, Florida, fall on deaf ears.

So it was a case of nunc pro tunc. A good time to come to Ottawa – When the weather is dry, / And no clouds hide the sky. / When air fills with sun, / And the outside is fun.

Which rhymes are a good segue to the fine poem to Elaine and Randal that Clyde Sanger read out to the assembled relatives and friends of Randal. Here is my snapshot of the poem he read out and left behind for Randal and Elaine at their house, posted here with the poet's permission:

L to R: Julianna Ovens, Sinclair Robinson, Pat Steenberg, Tony Patterson, 
Laura Marlin, Alice Tepper Marlin. Photos by JT Marlin.

Elaine and Randal were regular contributors, and for a few years Elaine was the editor.

The onlookers included family and many Glebe friends.

Five years ago, Clyde Sanger wrote another poem about Randal's search for Truth, which I also append with appreciation and thanks for permission to post.

This is at a time when Truth is in Helsinki, hostage to Greed and Power, https://bit.ly/2urjl39.

See also: Fiddlers in The Glebe, Ottawa, which includes a couple of movie clips . There Is No Planet B

CANADA | "There Is No Planet B"

Protest in Ottawa against Farm Policy
 (Subsidies, Hormones, Caged Animals...)

OTTAWA, July 15, 2018–On our way yesterday from our hotel to The Glebe area of Ottawa, where my brother lives, we went by a protest of Canadian farm policy.

The signs recited the shortcomings of farm policy, from caged animals to hormone injections to animal-farm subsidies.

My favorite sign was "There is no Planet B".

The central concern of the protesters seemed to be about treatment of animals.

The demonstration was sponsored by Nation Rising, a Canadian organization. They were heading for Parliament Hill, where they listed to some speeches. https://bit.ly/2uxYQRG

They were chanting: "The PLANet, the PEOple, the A-NI-MALS. In a Morse code version of iambic verse meter, the line went: .–., .–.,.– – –.

I thought it was effective to have a police escort on bicycles, showing some sympathy with the environmental concerns of the protesters and at the same time allowing the police to control the crowds at ground level with more equipment than a pedestrian could carry.

See also: "Democrats Seek Unity" https://cityeconomist.blogspot.com/2018/07/east-hampton-democrats-united-to-defeat.html.

GERMANY | Trump Ambassador Doing What Putin Did

Angela Merkel addresses Donald Trump,
as John Bolton, his hawkish National
Security Advisor, stands over him.

Ottawa, Canada July 14 – Today, Bastille Day, we got more news about Robert Mueller's indictment of 12 more Russians (running total: 25), for interfering in U.S. elections.

Here is the WaPo coverage:
https://bit.ly/2zDIwVn.

What the Russians did was reprehensible.

It is also what U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell is doing, according to a thoughtful two-part analysis of the damage Trump is doing to the U.S.-German ties in Der Spiegel. https://bit.ly/2NRZBhd.

PINK ARMY FORMING | How Women Won Primaries

Pink Army Rising

The following commentary is by Dana Chasin and is posted by permission:

Since President Trump’s election, hundreds of first-time female candidates have competed for political office.

A record 472 female candidates filed to run for House seats this cycle, shattering the 2012 record of 298 and more than doubling the number of women who ran in 2016.

More than three-quarters of the women who competed for House seats have run in Democratic primaries.

Women candidates are also winning at higher rates than ever before. Of primary contests between one woman, one man, and no incumbent, 65 percent have been won by the female candidate. A blue is wave anticipated in November; it may well turn out to be a pink army that leads it.

Contributions from Women Rise Sharply

Women are giving more to political campaigns. This election cycle, campaign contributions from female donors total 31 percent of House candidate fundraising, more than in any other election year and up from 27 percent in 2014. Women are not only participating by running, they are also participating by donating.

Source: Cook Political Report

Female Political Activism Up 

Political engagement and activism by women is at an all-time high. The Women’s March on Washington saw record numbers in D.C.—and across the nation—show up to make their voices heard on a issues such as women’s rights, gender equality, and paid family leave. Continuing with the #MeToo movement, we have seen the power of women’s voices in the political narrative and their engagement in the issues that matter most to them.

According to the latest Gallup poll tracking, just 35 percent of women approve of President Trump’s performance, compared with  49 percent of men. In 2016, Trump lost the female vote by an unprecedented 13 points, receiving just 41 percent to 54 percent for Hillary Clinton. Unmarried women, Latino, and millennial voters all came out to vote in the 2016 election in greater numbers than in 2012.  Given the rise in female political activism and the rise of female candidates focusing on issues that women care about, 2018 will surely be remembered as the Year of the Woman.

Progressive Women Win

Polls show that the Americans are looking for change from their political leaders-- and women are delivering. Candidates from districts as different as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's and Kara Eastman’s won their primaries against moderate incumbents, Joe Crowley and Brad Ashford, by running on more progressive policies and visions, and greater attention to neglected demographics.  While Ocasio-Cortez should cruise in her deep blue district, Eastman will face stiff competition in a purple Nebraska district that has been separated by one percentage point the last few election cycles.

Regardless of how difficult their general election fights will be, their primary victories represent the direction that this blue wave is headed – towards women and towards progressive outsiders.

Economic and Related Issues

A number of policy positions have played well for female Democrats during this primary season.

• Health Care

Voters rank health care as the number one issue going into the November midterms, and they are looking for sweeping reform proposals from candidates, not incremental changes.  Democratic candidates, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are running (and winning) on bold, progressive policies such as Medicare for All. Healthcare issues resonate strongly with female voters because they make 80 percent of health decisions in the family, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.  Voters also tend to trust women more when it comes to healthcare, and given the importance that voters assign to the topic this will certainly advantage female candidates.

• Taxes and the Economy

The recent GOP tax cuts have gone from a positive to either a neutral or negative campaign message in the eyes of voters. This negative impression by the electorate could be further exacerbated if the GOP look to attack entitlements in order to make amends for their fiscally irresponsible Tax Cuts and Jobs Act bill. Likewise, with the economy, voters are looking for bold messaging: to rewrite the rules of the game so the economy works for everyone, not just a select few. As wages stagnate while the cost of living increases, the tax cuts feel more and more like a dividend for wealthy special interests who rig the rules.

• Campaign Finance Reform

Despite the repeated transgressions of the Trump administration, Democrats are double-digits behind Trump when it comes to “cleaning up the swamp.”  Democratic candidates are winning their primaries by linking economic and political reform. This issue is critical in the perception among voters that candidates stand for something and are not part of a political establishment that is looking to continue the status quo.  Many candidates have found that eschewing donations from big business, lobbyists, and/or super PACs resonates strongly with voters.

The Pink Army

A total of 29 female non-incumbent Democratic candidates have won primaries in districts that are considered to be competitive (not solid Dem or GOP) by Cook Political Report. The candidates in these districts are scattered around the country but are united by their prioritization of economic issues on the campaign trail and their desire for change.

More importantly, they will be a preponderant factor in enabling Democrats to take back the House in November.  The Cook Political Report has predicted that Democrats are going to win between 20-35 seats in November. To achieve this, Democrats must go with the flow of a pink army that has already seen half of all House Democratic nominations thus far go to women, more than double the previous record. 

POLICE | Rate of Fatal Shootings, Large U.S. Cities

Source: Excerpted from https://priceonomics.com

July 11, 2018 – There's a company called Priceonomics that works with organizations that collect data to analyze the information.

Their latest release is a table showing the rate of fatal shootings relative to the population of major cities in the United States, during the years 2000 and 2018.*

New York City has the lowest rate, 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population. St Louis has the highest rate, 36.3 deaths per 100,000 population.

The St Louis rate is 181 times bigger.

A big hand for the NYPD, and for former Police Commissioner Bill Bratton, who managed the changes in the Department that led to the low NYC death rate, along with the gun control laws.

And congratulations to the various groups along the way that have helped in the effort to improve gun safety, such as Everytown for Gun Safety, the largest gun violence prevention organization in the United States. John Feinblatt, the organization's president, was part of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration, serving as NYC's criminal justice coordinator. In 2010 Feinblatt was appointed the Mayor’s chief policy advisor. Previously he was founding director of the Center for Court Innovation and the founding director of Midtown Community Court.**

*https://priceonomics.com/the-places-with-the-most-and-least-police/.
**https://www.guns.com/2014/07/01/exclusive-interview-with-everytown-president-gun-control-discusses-its-agenda/

EAST END DEMOCRATS UNIFY (Updated July 6)

Democratic Nominee for Congress Perry Gershon at
Democratic Unity Rally, with 235 in Attendance.

EAST HAMPTON, NY, Monday, July 2— Local Democrats held a successful Unity Rally to celebrate unified opposition to the current NY-1 U.S. Representative in Congress, Tea Party zealot Lee Zeldin.

All of the four candidates who did not win last week’s Democratic primary showed up yesterday to support the winner, Perry Gershon.

Despite 91-degree heat, 235 friends and supporters showed up to pledge their support for Gershon.

Perry Gershon, Winner of the
Democratic Primary, to Run Against
Lee Zeldin. Photos by E Rautenberg.

Momentum continued from the estimated 75 percent increase in turnout over that of the 2016 primary.

The event was attended by two Democratic Members of Congress — 15-term Representative Nita Lowey, from the NY-17 (Westchester), and 12-term Representative Carolyn Maloney, from the NY-12 (East Side Manhattan, West Queens, North Brooklyn).

Also speaking was New York State Assemblywoman Christine Pellegrino, who in May won a celebrated upset victory in a district on the Nassau-Suffolk county line that has been strongly Republican.

Supporters of Gershon

The event was held at a private home in the center of East Hampton’s Springs Historic District.

The East Hampton event was organized by several grassroots organizations that have emerged since the election of the president, primarily East End Resist & Replace, with encouragement from Let’s Visit Lee Zeldin and others, in collaboration with the East Hampton Town Democratic Party.

Alice Tepper Marlin
Welcomes Guests

Participants in the event included Peter Van Scoyoc, Town Supervisor, and members of the Board such as Sylvia Overby. Former Congressman Tim Bishop was also on hand.

Speakers discussed activities applicable to all areas of the country for defeating allies of President Donald Trump.

Said Gershon: “The turnout here is a sign that this district doesn’t want more out-of-touch politicians like Lee Zeldin and Donald Trump, but a movement that’s striving for a better future for us all. It’s time to fire Lee Zeldin, take back the House, and stop Donald Trump.”

Added Kate Browning, who finished the primary in second place: “With buddies at his kickoff event like Sean Spicer and Sebastian Gorka, and his support for terrible policies like ripping apart families, it's clear Lee Zeldin belongs on Fox & Friends — not representing Suffolk families in Congress.”

The volunteers checking in guests counted 210 people, with another dozen from Perry Gershon's campaign team. The total attendance count was 235.

Guests were asked to volunteer to work on the campaign, and 76 signed up to do canvassing, 77 phone-banking, 49 to host a party, 32 to host a fundraiser, and 55 to do voter registration. The hard work is just beginning. (Story in the East Hampton Star here: http://easthamptonstar.com/Government/2018705/After-Primary-Democrats-Project-Unity)

Peter Van Scoyoc, East Hampton Town Supervisor, calls on the four candidates who did not win the Primary to express their support for the winning candidate. They all were there and they all gave their support. It was a turning point for many.

See also "Pink Army Forming" https://cityeconomist.blogspot.com/2018/07/anti-trump-bump-women-dominated.html.

HEIDI FISKE | Mexico Ready to Embrace China?

Lopéz Obrador, Mexico's Newly 
Elected President

The following story originated from our Mexico tracker, Heidi Fiske:

Trump's plan to alienate the neighbors and friends of the United States is bearing fruit.

This blogpost, written by Heidi Fiske, expressed our alarm about the case of Mexico. Our concerns were justified. The country is reacting as one might expect, turning to other nations to seek help.

Until now, Mexican leaders have been wary of involving China in their country’s affairs for fear of angering the United States. 

Not any more. Its just-elected socialist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador plans a range of infrastructure projects in the poverty-stricken south of Mexico in which he grew up.

Many of these projects are expected to be financed with Chinese loans. We are watching this evolving story.