VIEWS | 470K. Top Ten Most Read

May 27, 2020—CityEconomist has had 470,000 page views since it was opened. Thank you for reading.

The most-viewed CityEconomist post during the last month was Irish writer Fintan O'Toole's commentary on the pitiful situation of the United States in its dealings with the rest of the world.

In second place was CityEconomist's endorsement of Perry Gershon, one of three candidates for NY-1 in the June 23 Democratic Primary. Here are the ten most-viewed posts.

IRELAND | USA More to Be Pitied than Scorned Apr 27, 2020

PERRY GERSHON | Primary, June 23 May 24, 2020

UNIONS | Oct. 18–First American Trade Unions, 1648... Oct 18, 2013

BOARD OF ELECTIONS | What's the Matter? Oct 13, 2013

GERMAN ELECTIONS, 1933 | How a Democracy Was Destr... Mar 5, 2017

JOBS BY STATE | Every state lost jobs. CA, NY, TX ... May 22, 2020

JOBS | Trump Compared with Obama, GW Bush, Clinton... May 8, 2020

TRUMP'S TRADE WAR | How the Détente Magnified the ... Apr 27, 2020

LABOR DEPARTMENT | "Breathtakingly Cruel" Guidance... Apr 28, 2020

PANDEMIC | Online Free Resources, Alphabetized! Mar 21, 2020, 1 comment

PERRY GERSHON | Primary, June 23

Perry Gershon, Candidate for
the Democratic nomination,
NY-1, June 23 Primary.

I got to know Perry Gershon during his campaign for the Democratic nomination to run in CD-1 against Lee Zeldin two years ago. He won the nomination. At the time, a former Republican, Michael Koegler, endorsed Perry against Zeldin and Perry's four former opponents in the Democratic primary did as well.

In the general election, Perry came within four percentage points of winning. In other words, if two percent of the voters switched from Zeldin to him, Perry would have won.

Perry is running again for the Democratic nomination. Does he have a better chance this year to defeat Zeldin? I think so. He has better name recognition, having been actively campaigning for three years. 

This year, the GOP coattails are not as long as they were two years ago. A major campaign issue in 2018 was the state of the U.S. economy. The Republican candidate had promised that his tax cut would make the U.S. economy soar. Clearly, it didn't happen. 

The 2017 Tax Act gave a huge break to corporations, reducing the tax rate on profits from 35 percent to 21 percent, more than they had asked for. They mostly used the money to buy back their stock. The Tax Act hurt suburban areas like Suffolk County because the cap on the SALT deduction hit middle-class homeowners in New York State, because their taxes are high and they did not benefit from the higher standard deduction or the lowered rates in the top personal income brackets.

Perry Gershon's field campaign staff and volunteers before the coronavirus hit.
That's Perry with the Shiba Inu dog.

When the pandemic hit, the White House was unprepared, postponed action and then came up with unscientific responses. The national economy is now a disaster and a major reason is the poor response of the White House. 

Meanwhile, Zeldin has gained little for Suffolk County in return for his unquestioning  loyalty to the President.  Even before the pandemic hit, in December 2019, Suffolk County lost jobs from a year earlier. Its job growth was in the lowest one-eighth of large U.S. counties.

Even compared with other counties that lost jobs, like Westchester, there was a crucial difference. Incomes in Westchester rose faster than most other counties, whereas Suffolk's income growth was just as bad as its poor job growth. 

So Zeldin's partisan anti-environmental stance did nothing for Suffolk County. His voting record in his last full term was one of the three worst of Members of Congress from New York State; the other two members are no longer serving.

This year we have three good Democratic candidates in the primary on June 23. The question many are asking is which one is most likely to defeat Lee Zeldin. In 2018, as the Democratic nominee, Perry gave Zeldin the closest race of his political career and established himself throughout NY-1 in the process. In the two years since that election, Perry has continued to spend time in the community, building alliances and relationships, particularly in the western part of the district. 

The coronavirus makes it impossible now to replicate the intensive mixing-in that Perry did last summer. He spent the summer of 2019 walking outdoor street fairs and fire department BBQs, meeting constituents, listening to their concerns, and talking about how to improve healthcare, protect the environment and make Long Island more affordable. Beginning in September, Perry started hosting monthly town hall meetings throughout the district, something Congressman Zeldin has refused to do. Perry will have held 11 town halls by the June 23 primary.

Perry is focused on reversing the attacks on healthcare by the Trump Administration. He is appalled that the number of uninsured Americans is rising during the administration of President Trump. COVID-19 has shown just how important it is for everyone that healthcare coverage extends to everyone else. Perry is also staunchly in favor of gun safety and the rights of women in the workplace and over their bodies.

As we come out of our lockdown, we will need to rebuild our economy to be more resistant to infections. Perry knows how that should be done. He has built four small businesses. He started his own sports bar at age 23. Then he went on to a 25-year career in commercial real estate lending, starting up three different real estate lending operations.

Suffolk County is struggling to come out of the current severe recession.  Perry’s experience in starting businesses and creating new jobs means he can play a critical role in the post-COVID-19 recovery.

Perry combines the independence he gets from having succeeded in the private sector with a cooperative approach that means he can work with the many disparate groups that make up NY-1.

Because all three of the Democratic candidates have fine qualities, I have been reluctant to make a pitch for any one of them. One of Perry's opponents is a scientist and we need more of them in the Congress. The other is an elected local official from the East End, and therefore knows this terrain. They have all pledged, as they did in 2018, to support with enthusiasm whichever of the three wins the primary. 

I support Perry because I think he has the greatest ability to defeat Lee Zeldin and make a difference in Washington, D.C.

JOBS BY STATE | Every state lost jobs. CA, NY, TX lost the most.

This map is interactive at the source (BLS).

May 22, 2020—In April 2020, jobs (nonfarm payroll employment) decreased in every one of the 50 states and in the District of Columbia.

The most-affected states were primarily ones with more population and more density.

States with Largest Job Losses

The three states with the largest job declines were California, New York and Texas.

California lost 2.34 million jobs, New York lost 1.83 million (more precisely, 1,827,300 net nonfarm payroll jobs) and Texas lost 1.30 million.

The three states with the largest percentage loss of jobs were Michigan, Vermont and New York. Michigan lost 22.8 percent of its jobs. Vermont lost 19.6 percent and New York lost 18.8 percent. See Tables E and 3 of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release this morning.

Which Sectors Lost the Most Jobs in New York State?

The hardest-hit industry sector in New York was Leisure and Hospitality, which lost, between March and April 2020, 548,500 jobs, or 64.1 percent of all of its payroll jobs in New York State. This of course reflects Governor Andrew Cuomo's well-advised shutdown order.  Health care workers and teachers jobs declined by much less, only 10.9 percent. Financial and information services, and government, appear to have maintained their staffing, presumably through use of the Internet.

Industry	March	April	Decline	Percent decline
Mining and Logging	4.8	4.8	0.0	0.0
Construction	383.8	234.1	149.7	39.0
Manufacturing	435.9	355.3	80.6	18.5
Trade, Transport, Utilities	1,513.0	1181.5	331.5	21.9
Information	275.8	267.5	8.3	3.0
Financial Activities	700.5	685.6	14.9	2.1
Professional and Biz Svces	1,373.1	1178.3	194.8	14.2
Educational, Health Svces	2,182.1	1944.9	237.2	10.9
Leisure and Hospitality	855.9	307.4	548.5	64.1
Other Services	411.6	291.1	120.5	29.3
Government	1,500.1	1438.9	61.2	4.1
Total	9,636.6	7,889.4	1,747.2	18.1

Source: BLS data (first two columns), computations (second two columns) by CityEconomist. The BLS payroll data by state are not seasonally adjusted.

Over the past twelve months (April 2019 to April 2020), New York lost 1,904,900 payroll jobs. In April, New York’s private sector lost 1,764,600 private payroll jobs compared with March, and over the past twelve months it lost 1,845,700 private payroll jobs.

Trajectories by State

Imperial College of London has published a tracking report for each U.S. state that shows how the trajectory of outbreaks diverges. At the time of release, 24 states, mostly in the midwest and south, had “uncontrolled” outbreaks, meaning the reproduction (infection) rate of the virus was above 1.

Unemployment by State

The unemployment rate in April rose to the highest level in Nevada, 28.2 percent, followed by Michigan, 22.7 percent, and Hawaii, 22.3 percent. The rates, which are seasonally adjusted, set new series highs in 43 states. All state series begin in 1976. The information is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, along with an interactive map of state unemployment rates.

Unemployment rates in Hawaii and Nevada exceeded their previous series highs by more than 10.0 percentage points each. Connecticut had the lowest unemployment rate, 7.9 percent. All together, 27 states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rates lower than the national average of 14.7 percent and 10 states had higher rates (the other 13 state rates were not significantly different from that of the nation). This information is in Tables A, B and 1 of the BLS release.

In April, the largest unemployment rate increases occurred in Nevada (+21.3 percentage points), Hawaii (+19.9 points), and Michigan (+18.4 points). Rates rose over the month by at least 10.0 percentage points in an additional 17 states. The smallest over-the-month jobless rate increases occurred in Nebraska (+4.3 percentage points) and Connecticut (+4.5 points). This information is from Table C in the BLS release.

The largest unemployment rate increases from April 2019 occurred in Nevada (+24.2 percentage points) and Hawaii (+19.6 points), and Michigan (+18.4 points). Another 21 states experienced increases of 10.0 points or more. The smallest over-the-year rate increases occurred in Connecticut (+4.2 percentage points) and Minnesota (+4.9 points). See Table D in the BLS release.

New York's unemployment rate rose by 10.4 percentage points to 14.5 percent in April. New York’s labor force participation rate fell to 58.3 percent in April from 60.2 percent in March.

JOBS | Trump Compared with Obama, GW Bush, Clinton

May 8, 2020, 8:45 am—Three and a half years ago, in December 2016, this blogpost reviewed two numbers important for working-age Americans, the unemployment rate and the employment-population ratio, for the prior three administrations. These are seasonally adjusted monthly numbers. This post updates the records of the last four presidents.

1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

	Bill Clinton 1993-2001	G. W. Bush 2001-2009	Barack Obama 2009-2017	Donald Trump 2017-April 2020
Unemployment Rate, last prior full month, percent, s.a.	7.4	3.9	7.3	4.7
Unemployment Rate, last full month, percent, s.a.	3.9	7.3	4.7	14.7
Change, percentage points (– = rise)	3.5	-3.4	2.6	-10.0

In December 2016, the last full month of President Obama's administration, the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed, 7.5 million, divided by the labor force (employed + unemployed), i.e., 159.6 million—4.7 percent.

The unemployment rate rose under President Trump to 14.7 percent in April 2020, an increase of 10 percentage points. The New York City Comptroller earlier this week projected an unemployment rate for NY City of 22 percent in June.

President Obama's last full-month 4.7 percent unemployment rate compares with 7.3 percent in December 2009, the last month of President George W. Bush's administration. That is a reduction of 2.6 percentage points.

This is turn compares with an increase in the unemployment rate of 3.4 percentage points during President G.W. Bush's administration and a decrease of 3.5 percentage points during President Clinton's administration. 

2. THE EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO

	Bill Clinton 1993-2001	G. W. Bush 2001-2009	Barack Obama 2009-2017	Donald Trump 2017-April 2020
Employment-Population Ratio, last prior full month, percent, s.a.	61.4	64.4	61.0	59.8
Employment-Population Ratio, last full month, percent, s.a.	64.4	61.0	59.8	51.3
Change during administration, percentage points (– = decline)	3.0	-3.4	-1.2	-8.5

The December 2016 Employment-Population Ratio was 59.8 percent. It fell to 51.3 percent in April, a decline of 8.5 percentage points from March. This is the lowest rate and largest over-the-month decline in the history of the series, which dates back to 1948. The employment-population ratio is defined by the BLS as the number of employed people, 152.1 million, divided by the civilian noninstitutional population, 254.5 million.

Trump visits Obama, 2016  

The Employment-Population Ratio has certain advantages as a labor market measure over the unemployment rate. It is a more reliable indicator over time because it is unaffected by variations in interviews, sampling, telecommunications preferences or definitions of the unemployed. 

In December 1992 when President Clinton came to office, the employment-population rate had been falling and was at 61.4 percent. It rose during his administration to 64.3 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points. Under President G. W. Bush, the rate fell by 3.3 percentage points to 61.0 percent. Under President Obama the rate fell further to 59.7 percent, a drop of 1.3 percentage points. 

On both measures, as of April 2020 the last two Democratic administrations outperformed both the Bush 43 and Trump administrations.